Fantasy Football ADP Analysis: Mispriced WRs to Target

Wide receiver might be the deepest position in fantasy football, but that doesn't mean all ADPs are created equal. While many drafters focus on last season's totals, the sharpest value comes from understanding usage trends, coaching changes and target volume shifts. Below are 10 wide receivers whose Fantasy Football ADPs stand out — some as bargains, others as caution flags.

Check out our Picks and Props tool to find the best prop bets for these receivers and more for added context on player expectations heading into 2025.

Wide Receiver Values to Target

DJ Moore, Chicago Bears (WR20)

Moore caught 98 passes for 966 yards and six touchdowns in 2024, falling short of his usual yardage despite maintaining strong volume. His 140 targets matched his prior season in Chicago, and his 85th percentile yards-after-catch rate remained a standout trait. Moore hasn't missed a game since 2020, and his 2024 drop in yards per target (6.9) and yards per catch (9.9) stand in contrast to prior seasons when he averaged 8.7 and 13.5-plus respectively. With Ben Johnson now calling plays and Caleb Williams entering Year 2, Moore is positioned for a bounce back. Look for more than 1,200 yards and at least 90 catches. He's a strong WR2 target with legit WR1 upside.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WR31)

Before a Week 7 dislocated ankle ended his season, Godwin was on pace for a 1,300-yard, 90-catch campaign. He had 8-13 targets in six of seven games and scored double-digit PPR points every week. The short-to-intermediate role suits his strengths, but will Godwin's role suffer with Liam Coen no longer coordinating Tampa Bay's offense? QB Baker Mayfield developed a great rapport with his receiver, so the impact of losing Coen should be minimized. Overall, Godwin's combination of route-running, volume and post-injury optimism give him WR2 upside.

Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns (WR35)

Jeudy topped 1,200 yards in 2024 on 90 receptions but only found the end zone four times. After Week 8, he averaged 10.3 targets while posting at least 85 yards in five of seven games, thriving with Jameis Winston under center. His 24th percentile drop rate and low TD count capped weekly upside, but volume gave him a solid floor. If Joe Flacco starts, Jeudy could easily be a WR2. Even if the Browns turn to one of their younger QBs, Jeudy should still see heavy volume. As long as his ADP holds in WR3 territory, he's a smart buy in PPR formats.

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (WR50)

Downs played 14 games and posted 7-803-5 with strong efficiency after the catch (79th percentile yards after the catch). Although he rarely played more than 70 percent of snaps, he hit 15-plus PPR points seven times. Anthony Richardson's inconsistency dragged down the passing game, but in two seasons, Downs has proven to be QB proof. If the Colts continue to use him in a full-time slot role, Downs can outperform his WR50 price with WR3 upside in PPR leagues.

Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos (WR60)

From Weeks 11-18, Mims averaged 54 yards and 0.75 TDs per game, breaking out after a quiet first half. He was elite after the catch (99th percentile yards after the catch) and made splash plays on screens and deep shots. Despite limited target volume, Mims' touches became more valuable. His late-season surge looks sustainable, and with a WR60 ADP, he's a high-upside flex target with breakout potential.

Overvalued Wide Receivers to Think Twice About

Brian Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars (WR7)

Thomas was electric with Mac Jones, averaging 10.8 targets and 97 yards in six games. But with Trevor Lawrence, he was a different player — more efficient, less targeted. He never reached 10 targets with Lawrence, and 73 percent of his 100-yard games came from Jones' starts. He's a first-round talent, but banking on WR1 production with Lawrence's current tendencies is a reach. I'd rather draft someone like Drake London later.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans (WR8)

When healthy, Collins is dominant, but durability remains a red flag. He's missed 17 games in three seasons, including five in 2024. His talent is undeniable, and his upside fits a WR1 profile, but the risk of another incomplete season makes him a luxury pick. Unless he slips into Round 3, I'm passing.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

Higgins is being priced as a borderline WR1 despite never exceeding 1,100 yards or 110 targets in a season. He's missed five games each of the last two years and left several others early during his career. Even in his best season (2024), he posted a modest 911 yards on 73 receptions. With Chase dominating targets, Higgins doesn't have the usage profile to justify his ADP. I'll wait for someone else to overpay.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (WR15)

Hill is coming off wrist surgery, is entering his age-31 season and has hinted at wanting a trade. His 2024 production (81-959-6) was his worst since 2016, and his yards after the catch dropped to the 38th percentile. He had only three games with more than 83 yards and had eight games with less than 41. Factor in declining explosiveness and mounting off-field concerns, and there's little reason to draft him this high in 2025.

Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (WR26)

Williams was a splash-play machine late in 2024, averaging seven targets in six of his last seven games. But in Weeks 3–7, he averaged just two targets per game when the defense was healthy and the offense didn't need to throw. With Detroit likely returning to a run-heavy game script fueled by a strong defense, consistency will be hard to find. Williams belongs closer to WR30 than WR26.

Final Thoughts on Fantasy Football ADP WR Values

The WR position remains deep, but not every draft-day price tag reflects reality. DJ Moore, Chris Godwin and Josh Downs have strong paths to outperform their current ADPs, especially in PPR formats. Others like Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins and Nico Collins carry clear warning signs and should be approached with caution.

If you're looking to bet on any of these players' futures, see RotoWire's suggestions: https://www.rotowire.com/picks/nfl/ 

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