This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Tracking usage trends, role shifts and ADP movement is how savvy fantasy managers find value before the rest of the draft board catches up. In May, I started posting a "Stat of the Day" on X. I'll do this through mid-August. The goal is to take the most interesting stat I can find for a player and apply some actionable fantasy advice to it. You can check out my timeline @JimCoventryNFL or the @Rotowire account where they are reposted. This roundup dives into actionable stats across every position, highlighting which players are rising, fading or being mispriced heading into 2025 fantasy football drafts.
Quarterback Fantasy Football Stats
- Sam Darnold threw six touchdowns and seven interceptions against pressure-heavy defenses last year but posted a stellar 29:5 ratio against softer units. Now in Seattle's less stable environment, he's nothing more than a low-end QB2 or QB3.
- Russell Wilson passed for 264 or more yards in four of his first six games but averaged just 153 over his final five. With job security in question, he's a risky QB3 in superflex formats.
- Geno Smith averaged 575 attempts and 4,301 yards in 2022 and 2024 combined but saw a declining TD:INT ratio every season since 2022. He's a volume-dependent, low-upside QB2 in Las Vegas.
- Jordan Love's 27 pass attempts per game down the stretch suggests Green Bay is shifting toward a run-first offense. He profiles as a matchup-based QB15 best paired with a steadier QB.
- Tua Tagovailoa gave managers three straight 300-yard games but also had four games with less than 216 yards. With injury risk and week-to-week variance, he's best deployed as a boom-or-bust QB2.
- Trevor Lawrence has never reached 25 passing touchdowns in a season. With Liam Coen now calling plays, he becomes a post-hype breakout candidate.
Check out our Picks and Props tool to find the best prop bets for these players and more for added context on player expectations heading into 2025.
Running Back Fantasy Football Stats
- Aaron Jones opened hot with 88-plus rushing yards in six of his first 11 games but slowed to one game with more than 73 yards (and a 3.64 yards per carry) in his final seven. With Jordan Mason added, Jones is better targeted near the RB30 range.
- Travis Etienne averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and ranked poorly in efficiency metrics. Jacksonville added two rookies, making him hard to trust before RB50.
- Tyrone Tracy's final seven games included just 3.46 yards per carry on 12 attempts per game. With Cam Skattebo in town, Tracy is a reach inside the top 36.
- Rachaad White's usage cratered late, averaging only 20 snaps and 16 total yards across his final three games. He's not worth a top-50 RB pick.
- Ray Davis played behind Ty Johnson and averaged 26 percent of snaps after Week 12. Unless you're handcuffing James Cook, Davis is overpriced at RB45.
- Tyler Allgeier averaged 8.7 carries over his final six games. He holds late-round value just inside the RB50 range.
- Isaac Guerendo's 78 yards and one touchdown per game in high-usage spots look promising, but a 76-yard garbage-time run skews the profile. He's best left as a handcuff near RB44.
- Brian Robinson scored 10 to 20 PPR points in eight of his first 10 games before averaging just 6.4 in his final four. He's a low-ceiling option around RB34.
- Javonte Williams struggled in key efficiency metrics, ranking 26th percentile in yards after contact and 36th in broken tackles. He's a desperation volume pick after RB40 in crowded backfield situations.
If you're looking to bet on any of these players' futures, see Rotowire's suggestions.
Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Stats
- Cedric Tillman averaged seven catches, 85 yards and a score in his first three starts before a concussion ended his season. As Cleveland's clear WR2, he's a sneaky value outside WR55.
- Marvin Mims cleared 44 yards in six of his final seven games and found the end zone six times. He's an explosive breakout candidate worth drafting near WR55.
- Darnell Mooney's targets fell off after Atlanta's Week 12 bye, dropping from 7.4 to 5.0 per game. He's a volatile play best left outside the top-55 WRs.
- Wan'Dale Robinson saw 140 targets in 2024 and hit eight or more targets in 11 games. He's a PPR-friendly volume pick with value outside the WR70 range.
- Rashod Bateman averaged 16.8 yards per catch and scored nine touchdowns on just 4.2 targets per game. If his volume climbs, he offers true breakout potential. Don't count on that volume changing.
- Deebo Samuel averaged 1,770 scrimmage yards and 14 touchdowns in 2021 but has posted just 929 per season since. He's an overpriced risk outside WR36.
- Jameson Williams saw 7-8 targets in six of his final seven games. But when Detroit's defense played well, he saw just two targets per game in Weeks 3 through 7. He's overvalued at WR26.
- Jayden Reed had six or more targets in five of his first six games but fell to three or fewer in five of his last 10. With Green Bay expected to remain run-heavy, he's a borderline WR45.
- Jauan Jennings exploded for three 90-yard games after the bye week, but averaged just five catches for 50 yards in his final five contests. He's a volatile WR4 to consider around WR36 to WR38.
- Ricky Pearsall averaged 105 yards and nine targets over his final two games, but caught a total of two passes for 21 yards in the five games prior. He's a boom-bust flyer best drafted after WR45.
- Zay Flowers scored 18.5 or more PPR points in five of his first nine games, but topped 11.9 only once in his final eight. With Baltimore leaning run-heavy late, he's risky outside the WR24 range.
Tight End Fantasy Football Stats
- Pat Freiermuth posted 9.9-plus PPR points in seven of his final nine games. With no clear WR2 in Pittsburgh, he's a late-round TE target with real upside.
- Hunter Henry earned eight or more targets in four of his last five full games. He's an undervalued veteran TE2 worth drafting beyond the top 15.
- Zach Ertz recorded 91 catches and seven touchdowns in 2024 but ranked in the sixth percentile in yards after catch. With Deebo Samuel now in the mix, even near TE24 he's a risky TE2.
- Dalton Kincaid caught just 58.7 percent of his targets and never topped 53 yards in a game last year. At best, he's a fringe TE2 to draft only after TE15.
Final Thoughts on Fantasy Football ADP WR Values
The best fantasy rosters are built by spotting value before it's obvious. Many players flash breakout traits, but others are climbing in ADP without the volume, efficiency or role to back it up. Staying ahead of role changes, usage spikes and emerging trends will keep you drafting smarter than your league mates.
Check out my other articles on Rotowire for deeper analysis on player trends, draft strategy, and season-long outlooks.
