NFL Box Score Breakdown: 10 Usage Trends to Know for Week 2

Before we fully dive into everything Week 2, let's take one last look back at an eventful Week 1 and discuss 10 of the most important usage trends that will impact our lineups (and waiver runs) moving forward. I'll highlight some of the most important material from my massive Week 1 recap article, doing a deep dive with the help of advanced stats to add context that's missing from a regular box score.

1. WR Deebo Samuel has a new role, and it's perfect for him.

• Key stats: 69% slot rate / 36% TPRR / 7.1 aDOT / 22.6 PPR points

Samuel's huge Week 1 — 7-77-0 receiving, plus a 19-yard rushing TD — was supported by equally encouraging peripheral usage. He ran just one fewer route than Terry McLaurin, handling 85% route share, with 10 targets on an afternoon when no teammate had more than five.

Beyond that, Samuel's role was perfect for maximizing his strengths and limiting the negative impact of his weaknesses, with OC Kliff Kingsbury putting his new weapon in the slot for 69% of snaps. Samuel never topped a 24% slot rate for the 49ers, even in recent years when he had an increasingly difficult time getting open against man coverage. This past Sunday, he ran just two perimeter routes against man coverage, avoiding his weakness almost entirely.

And it wasn't just the slot snaps — Samuel went in motion before 17 of his 51 plays (33%), including 11 times with motion at the snap (2nd most among all WRs in Week 1). He got some of the schemed stuff everyone expects, with four targets behind the LOS and a rushing TD, but he also saw five targets 20-plus yards downfield, catching three of them and dropping another (all between the numbers).

The combination of a sky-high motion rate and career-high slot rate hint at a high target rate, and while the role is a demanding one in terms of stamina, Samuel appears to be in much better shape this year after dealing with pneumonia (and arguably unwanted weight gain) in 2024. The injury history remains a big concern, but we now have proof that he can handle the demands of this role from a stamina/conditioning perspective.

It also happens to be a role that's quite different from what Terry McLaurin does, potentially allowing for both to thrive, in which case Samuel would be crowding out the likes of Zach Ertz, Noah Brown, Jaylin Lane and/or Austin Ekeler. That's not to say Vintage Deebo is a non-issue for McLaurin's volume projection, but for now I'm comfortable starting both of them, even for a Week 2 road matchup with Green Bay's tough-looking defense.

Throw Cold Water on It: He's only in the slot because he's too washed to get open on the perimeter, unlike McLaurin, who can actually beat man coverage. And Deebo will get hurt soon anyway.

2. RB Javonte Williams is a workhorse, for now.

• Key stats: 77% snap share / 75% of DAL's RB opportunities / 20.5 PPR points

It seems like it happened a year ago, but Williams' domination of the Dallas backfield work last Thursday remains one of the biggest fantasy stories from Week 1. Miles Sanders' lost fumble helped, but Williams scored a pair of goal-line TDs long before that, getting 71% of snaps and 13 of 19 RB opportunities (68%) up through the fumble.

After Sanders' fumble, Williams took 94% of snaps and all five backfield opportunities. Jaydon Blue, meanwhile, was a healthy scratch, after dealing with a couple of minor foot/ankle injuries this summer (and returning to full practice participation last week). The rookie could very well have a role Week 2, but that might just mean replacing Sanders, rather than threatening Williams in the lead role.

I'm not sure how this one will shake outt, and still think Dallas could/should bring in outside talent, but Williams is a confident RB2 start in the meantime, with potential to dominate backfield work for a team that's favored by 5.5 points this week (home against the Giants).

Throw Cold Water on It: Williams averaged just 3.6 YPC, with a long gain of 11, and he still doesn't have his pre-surgery explosiveness. He'll either get hurt, fall back into a committee or be replaced by Jaydon Blue or a trade addition.

3. RB Christian McCaffrey has the best role in the league, again.

• Key Stats: 76% snaps / 69% routes / 23.2 PPR points / 40% TPRR / 31 touches

McCaffrey isn't the best running back anymore, but man is his role a doozy. There's nothing quite like being eased back into the mix with 31 touches in a one-score divisional game. One might even wonder if last week's mcCALFrey drama was concocted just to mess with us.

In any case, McCaffrey took 76% of snaps and 32 of 43 RB opportunities (74%) en route to 23.2 PPR points on a day when TE George Kittle (hamstring) and WR Jauan Jennings (shoulder) both left early. Jennings may be back soon, but Kittle won't be, likely locking in McCaffrey for one of the highest per-route target rates in the league.

If you're worried about Brian Robinson's involvement, keep in mind that the 49ers dominated possession and had some lengthy drives, which increased the need/incentive to give McCaffrey breathers. In a lower-volume game for the team's offense, McCaffrey likely would've taken an even larger snap/opportunity share. It's something to track, for sure, but McCaffrey's rate of touches and yards per snap figures to be so high that he can afford to cede 20-25% of the work to Robinson and still be a mega-elite RB1.

Throw Cold Water on It: He's not explosive, and will get hurt anyway. The 49ers don't even have a great offense anymore. Did you see Trent Williams on Sunday? Even he looks beatable now. And no Kittle for four weeks... this is all just a disaster waiting to happen. Enjoy your 25 fantasy points per week while it lasts, sucker.

4. RBs Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton are workhorses already.

• Key Jeanty Stats: 86% snaps / 88% of LV's RB opportunities
• Key Hampton Stats: 80% snaps / 89% of LAC's RB opportunities

Jeanty and Hampton started slow in terms of production, but both ranked Top 7 among all RBs in snap share and RB opportunity share, completely dominating backfield work for their respective teams.

Hampton took 79% of snaps on first down, 76% on second down and 86% on third down, which is a good sign for his future workloads even if Najee Harris' lack of practice time this summer was a factor in the Week 1 split going so far toward Hampton. The rookie didn't add much beyond what was blocked Friday, but he looked comfortable as a pass catcher and generally quick.

It was pretty much the same story for Jeanty, who rarely left the field but didn't find much room to run on it. It shouldn't be long until similar usage yields huge results, although consistency may be elusive given the questionable state of the Raiders' offensive line.  

Throw Cold Water on It: We get fantasy points for yards and TDs, not carries or targets. And these guys were first-round picks; they should be able to average four yards per carry without good blocking.

5. Chargers OC Greg Roman is letting Justin Herbert chuck it.

• Key Stats: +11.8% PROE (2nd) / 318 passing yards and three TDs

Roman has a long track record of operating run-first offenses with dual-threat QBs, and his first few games with the Chargers last season looked like more of the same (minus the second part). Herbert suffering a lower-body injury early in the year may have also been a factor, as the Chargers started to throw the ball far more mid-season.

Many thought they'd get back to running more after signing Harris and drafting Hampton, but the Chargers instead came out firing behind Herbert (and kept at it once they built a lead). Depending on the source you use, they finished first or second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) for Week 1, with just 16 RB carries on 62 plays even though they led for most of the night. 

WRs Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen each had at least 76% route share, seven targets and 68 yards, while the RBs and TEs combined for only six targets. It remains to be seen how things shake out between Allen and Johnston, but the initial feedback on this offense looks like more Johnston/Allen/Herbert and less Najee Harris, relative to pre-season projections.

Throw Cold Water on It: Roman still wants to run first and foremost. Herbert only threw so many passes because the Chiefs were crowding the box and committing to stopping the run.

6. TE Harold Fannin may soon/already be the centerpiece of Cleveland's offense.

• Key Stats: 72% snap / 64% routes / 30% TPRR / 52 Air Yards / 7-63-0 REC

Fannin's Week 1 receiving line and peripherals are incredibly similar to Brock Bowers' numbers from opening weekend last season, albeit with David Njoku far more involved than Michael Mayer was for the Raiders last year. Fannin isn't Bowers, because nobody is, but the rookie might just be the next best thing.

Drafted 67th overall this spring, Fannin had a ridiculous 117-1,555-10 receiving line in his final season at Bowling Green and has now started his NFL career with a featured role less than three months after his 21st birthday. There are some similarities here to the Mark Andrews / Isaiah Likely situation early last season, but Fannin may soon prove to be even better than Likely, and his team certainly will throw the ball more often.

We knew Fannin would have a Week 1 role when the Browns rested him with their starters this preseason, but nobody outside of Cleveland expected 72% snap share and a team-high nine targets. He even took 38% of the snaps in 11 personnel away from Njoku, in addition to benefitting from Cleveland's extensive use of multi-TE formations (58% of snaps, 2nd-highest).

Throw Cold Water on It: Njoku ran six more routes than Fannin, and both benefited from elevated play volume (71 plays, t-3rd). Anyway, the Browns are terrible, and they'll eventually start Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel. But even a hater can admit that the Fannin kid looks alright...

7. Buffalo's Keon Coleman might be this year's breakout WR.

• Key Stats: 94% routes / 25% TPRR / 144 Air Yards / 25.2 PPR points

Coleman led Buffalo's skill-position players in routes, targets and yards in the Week 1 win over Baltimore, putting up 8-112-1 on a night where Josh Allen attempted 46 passes and Khalil Shakir and Joshua Palmer each got nine targets. Most of Buffalo's games won't look anything like this, but Coleman warrants attention because he not only got the target volume but actually did something with it (while getting more playing time than Shakir and Palmer).

He also doesn't conflict with Shakir much, with Coleman logging just four slot snaps in the opener and getting a lot of his targets downfield. As much as I'm on record as liking Palmer, it's Coleman who has a chance to really separate from the other guys here and earn a dominant target share if he continues playing well.

Throw Cold Water on It: The Bills ran a league-high 78 plays and had negative game script. What happens when they win by multiple scores and run 55-70 plays? It's not like Coleman dominated targets; there was enough to go around for everyone.

8. WR Hollywood Brown can moonlight as a low-ADOT slot receiver.

• Key Stats: 98% route share / 40% TPRR / 56% slot rate / 6.7 aDOT / 19.9 PPR

Brown overcame an early drop and ended up leading the league in slot yardage (90) for Week 1, thanks in large part to a 49-yard catch late in the fourth quarter (on his only deep target of the day). He took 56% of his snaps in the slot and got 11 targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, finishing at a 6.7 aDOT even after the long ball. 

It was odd usage for Brown, who is good at running routes and getting open but rarely maximizes yardage after the catch. As an in-game adjustment after Xavier Worthy's shoulder injury on the opening drive, it kind of made sense. Beyond that, not so much, but the Chiefs might try it again Week 2 against the Eagles, if only because injuries and Rashee Rice's suspensions have so limited their options.

Rookie WR Jalen Royals was seemingly part of the plan to replace Rice but instead missed Week 1 with a knee injury, leaving him uncertain for Week 2 and beyond. If Worthy is out this week, the Chiefs will give Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton a lot of playing time together — a situation that could mean Thornton running a lot of clear-out routes while Brown gets the first-read looks and cheap PPR points. This is just a temporary scam, but it might be a pretty good one, and at a position where production was generally brutal last week.

Throw Cold Water on It: A fragile player in a high-volume role that he'd be ill suited for even if he somehow managed to stay healthy... Sign me up!

9. RB Kenneth Gainwell has... Jaylen Warren's Role?

• Key Gainwell Stats: 52% snaps / 44% 
• Key Warren Stats: 45% snaps / 29% routes / 13 of PIT's 25 RB opportunities (52%)

Gainwell got seven carries and four targets on 52% snap share, while Warren took 11 carries and two targets on 45% of snaps. That sounds a lot like the split between Warren and Najee Harris the past couple years, only with depressed volume because the Steelers ran just 54 plays.

Warren saved his fantasy day with a receiving score, but he looks like no more than a FLEX play still, while rookie Kaleb Johnson is a pure stash. Gainwell's role doesn't quite look large enough for him to be a fantasy starter in 10/12-team leagues, but he's at least worth picking up everywhere to see how things shake out. The possibility of Pittsburgh simply not trusting Johnson this season could create unforeseen upside for Gainwell, or even Warren.

Throw Cold Water on It: Well, this one kind of just stinks for everyone anyway, right?

10. TEs Juwan Johnson and Chig Okonkwo are Every-Down Players

• Key Johnson Stats: 99% snaps / 89% routes / 26% TPRR / 8-76-0
• Key Okonkwo Stats: 88% snaps / 80% routes

For Johnson, it resulted in production. For Okonkwo, it was mostly just empty routes. Both are worth a close look on waiver wires this week, as it's hard to get less than 4-5 targets per game in an every-down role — especially on teams badly in need of weapons. Johnson is more of a seam threat and Okonkwo more of a YAC guy, but both could have career years in 2025, if only because their teams lack other healthy, trustworthy alternatives at tight end (New Orleans has both Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau on injury lists after knee tears last year).

Now if only the other positions had as many good waiver options as TE this week...

Other Shakers and Movers

Stock Up

WR Ricky Pearsall

RB Bucky Irving

WR Emeka Egbuka

RB Travis Etienne

TE Tyler Warren

WR Michael Pittman

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

RB J.K. Dobbins

RB Breece Hall

WR Kayshon Boutte

WR Elic Ayomanor

RB Nick Chubb

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Stock Down

RB Isiah Pacheco

WR Josh Downs

RB Aaron Jones

WR Matthew Golden

WR Adam Thielen

RB RJ Harvey

WR Marvin Mims

TE Evan Engram

RB Kenneth Walker

RB Jerome Ford

RB Tank Bigsby

RB Braelon Allen

QB Russell Wilson