MONDAY NIGHT
Arizona (+2.5) at Dallas, o/u 54.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST
Fun fact: Kyler Murray has never lost at AT&T Stadium, dating back to his high school days. He'll return to the lineup for a Cardinals squad that's lost five straight after an 2-0 start, although he was under center for the first three of those losses. Murray's 6.0 YPA would be a career low, as OC Drew Petzing has him dinking and dunking while Marvin Harrison wonders why they bothered drafting him. That philosophy has been great once again for Trey McBride, though, who has double-digit targets in three of the last four games (two with Murray, two with Jacoby Brissett). The star tight end's already set a new career high with four TDs too. The defense is hovering around the edges of the top 10 in yards per play allowed and PPG allowed, and despite being on the field too much, the unit has yet to 400 yards of offense in a game, which isn't bad. If Murray gets healthy and start moving the ball more consistently, the Cards could put together a solid second half, although a run to the playoffs is probably asking too much. Playing spoiler for someone else in the NFC West might be the best they can hope for.
The Cowboys remain absurdly unbalanced, with an offense almost nobody can stop (except for themselves ... only the Broncos have seen more yellow linen so far) and a defense that offers less resistance than most team's scout squads. Dak Prescott stumbled last week in Denver, but he's still on track for a career-best 70.3 percent completion rate, along with a 7.1 YPA and 16:5 TD:INT through eight games. Javonte Williams has been something of a revelation, even behind a banged-up offensive line that could get starting center Cooper Beebe back this week, and CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens look like a formidable 1-2 punch downfield while Jake Ferguson hoovers up targets and TDs underneath. DC Matt Eberflus' unit might be historically bad, though, as it endures a perfect storm of talent depletion, injuries and bad scheme fits. The idea that trading for a Maxx Crosby or Trey Hendrickson would save this defense and fill the Micah Parsons hole is, on its face, ridiculous – the Cowboys would need to trade for at least 4-5 starting-quality players, with an emphasis on the secondary, to even make a dent.
Key Info
ARI injury report: QB Kyler Murray (questionable, foot), RB Trey Benson (IR, knee), RB James Conner (IR, foot), RB Emari Demercado (questionable, ankle), WR Zay Jones (questionable, knee), DT Walter Nolen (PUP, calf), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (NFI, knee), CB Will Johnson (questionable, groin), CB Starling Thomas (IR, knee)
DAL injury report: LG Tyler Smith (questionable, knee), C Cooper Beebe (IR, ankle), LB DeMarvion Overshown (PUP, knee), CB Trevon Diggs (IR, concussion), S Malik Hooker (IR, toe), S Donovan Wilson (questionable, elbow), S Juanyeh Thomas (questionable, migraine)
Strong lean: QB Kyler Murray (DAL 30th in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed to QBs)
Slight lean: WR KaVontae Turpin (ARI 24th in DVOA vs. WR3)
No fades for ARI against this atrocious DAL defense
Slight fade: WR George Pickens (ARI sixth in DVOA vs. WR2)
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NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Bam Knight romps for 120 yards and two TDs. Murray throws for 220 yards and a score to Harrison. Williams responds with 110 yards and a touchdown. Prescott goes off again, throwing for 340 yards and three TDs, two to Lamb (who tops 100 yards) and one to Ferguson. Cowboys 34-21
EARLY SUNDAY
Chicago at Cincinnati (+2.5), o/u 52.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Bears saw their four-game win streak come to an end last week, and while before the season started no one would have had a trip to Baltimore circled as a likely pickup, it's hard to sugarcoat a loss to a 1-5 team trotting out its third QB of the season. No worries, this week they just have a road game against an AFC North club that's on their third... oh. Oh no. Caleb Williams has gone two straight games without throwing a TD and four straight without throwing multiple TDs, which isn't the kind of progress Chicago fans were hoping to see from the first overall pick in the 2024 draft, but if you squint you can see signs of progress in his 7.3 YPA on the year, which is a full yard better than his rookie mark. D'Andre Swift has been carrying the offense instead of late, with rookie Kyle Monangai making an impact too in Week 7, but Swift doesn't appear to be 100 percent as he plays through a lingering groin issue. The receiving corps is banged up too, and the offense may not be able to afford to be undermanned as it tries to make up for a defense that sits 25th in PPG allowed and 30th in yards per play allowed.
Fortunately, the Bears are matched up against a Bengals defense that's dead last in both categories. It's a minor miracle that Cincy is even 3-5 given how atrocious DC Al Golden's unit has been, and that Joe Burrow has now missed six games and counting. The addition of Joe Flacco has done more for the passing game than I think even the Bengals expected – they've scored a very Burrow-like 71 points over the last two games – but the 40-year-old now has a shoulder injury of his own, and having to go back to Jake Browning under center would probably be very bad news, for the team and for Ja'Marr Chase. In three games since Flacco took the reins, Chase has averaged about 13 catches a game for 115 yards with two TDs. Tee Higgins has also caught a couple scores, and predictably Flacco's tight end, Noah Fant in this case, has also seen steady volume and production. If Flacco's able to play and able to sling it, this could be a barn burner; if it's Browning instead, well, Cincy averaged 12.3 points and 217.3 yards of offense in his three starts, albeit against tougher defenses.
Key Info
CHI injury report: RB D'Andre Swift (out, groin), WR Luther Burden (out, concussion), CB Jaylon Johnson (IR, groin), CB Kyler Gordon (IR, groin)
CIN injury report: QB Joe Burrow (IR, toe), QB Joe Flacco (questionable, shoulder), EDGE Trey Hendrickson (doubtful, hip), LB Logan Wilson (doubtful, calf)
Strong lean: QB Caleb Williams (CIN 31st in passing DVOA, 31st in passing TDs allowed, 29th in passing yards per game allowed)
Slight lean: RB Chase Brown (CHI 26th in rushing DVOA, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Slight fade: WR Rome Odunze (CIN seventh in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: WR Ja'Marr Chase (CHI fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)
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NFL weather report: 30-40 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Monangai breaks out for 110 combined yards and two scores. Williams throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Colston Loveland and Moore. Brown pops for 110 scrimmage yards and a TD. Flacco starts and throws for 230 yards and two scores, finding Chase and Fant, but he can't put together a late drive for a game-winning FG. Bears 28-27
Minnesota (+9) at Detroit, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
While you have to salute Carson Wentz's toughness is gutting out a painful shoulder injury last week, his heroics led to just 10 points for the Vikings, and a second straight loss. At 3-4 they may be in the NFC North basement, but they're far from out of the race, especially if J.J. McCarthy's time off has allowed him to regain some confidence. McCarthy still has plenty of weapons at his disposal, but the worrying trend for Minnesota might be on the other side of the ball, as DC Brian Flores' usually stingy unit has coughed up 65 points and 780 yards of offense the last two weeks. Granted, that was against two dangerous offenses in the Eagles and Bolts, but it's not like their schedule is letting up here. Justin Jefferson might be sorry to see Wentz head off to season-ending surgery, as he's seen double-digit targets in four straight games while posting a 29-402-0 line, but that surge also coincided with the return of Jordan Addison, so was it the QB, or defenses having someone else they actually needed to worry about? Neither Jordan Mason nor Aaron Jones did much last week in the latter's return from a hamstring strain, and getting the run game going will be another headache for Kevin O'Connell to deal with. There would seem to be too much talent on the roster for the Vikings to keep struggling, but that's been a common refrain around the league in the first half of the year.
Coming out of their bye, the Lions sit a half-game back of the Packers for the division lead. It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing so far for Dan Campbell's crew, but they've beat as many preseason Super Bowl contenders as they've lost to, which could be worse. It's no coincidence that the two defeats (Green Bay and Kansas City) came in the only two games Detroit was held below 100 rushing yards. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are the engine of the offense, and they're catching Minnesota after they just got gashed for over 200 yards on the ground by a Chargers team with its two two running backs on the shelf. The Lions' defense will be missing a starting corner and plenty of depth, but Aidan Hutchinson and a strong group of starting LBs is an excellent foundation, and the unit ranks in the top eight in yards per play allowed, sacks and takeaways.
Key Info
MIN injury report: QB Carson Wentz (IR, shoulder), LT Christian Darrisaw (questionable, knee), C Ryan Kelly (IR, concussion), RT Brian O'Neill (questionable, knee)
DET injury report: LT Taylor Decker (questionable, shoulder), CB D.J. Reed (IR, hamstring), S Kerby Joseph (out, knee)
Slight lean: WR Jordan Addison (DET 23rd in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong lean: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (MIN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: WR Olamide Zaccheaus (DET ninth in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight fade: WR Kalif Raymond (MIN second in receiving yards per game allowed to WR3s)
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NFL weather report: indoors
Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 DET, average score 28-25 DET, average margin of victory eight points. DET has won five straight meetings by an average score of 31-21, and has won four straight meetings at Ford Field
The Scoop: Jones leads the MIN backfield with 50 yards. McCarthy throws for less than 200 yards but does hit Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson for scores. Gibbs churns out 90 combined yards and a TD, while Montgomery also gets into the end zone. Jared Goff throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, finding ARSB and Jameson Williams. Lions 31-20
Carolina (+12.5) at Green Bay, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Panthers ran into a brick wall known as reality last week, getting routed at home by the Bills. Having Andy Dalton under center instead of Bryce Young might have played a small role in the result, but Carolina was simply out-classed, and it put the team's 4-4 record in some harsh context, as Dave Canales' crew is 4-1 against teams below .500, and 0-3 against playoff contenders. If you chalk the Cardinals' poor start up to bad luck – they have a minus-1 point differential, but have a 2-5 record to show for it – then the Panthers are 4-0 against also-rans and 4-0 against quality opponents, with an average score in the latter group of games of about 34-14. They're got more contenders than pretenders on their remaining schedule, so a seven-win campaign might be about their ceiling, but that would still be as many wins as they managed in the prior two seasons combined. It's progress of a sort. Young missed last week's game with an ankle injury, but it's getting very close to time to giving up on a potential breakout from him. His 61.6 percent completion rate and 5.8 YPA are barely better than his 2023 rookie campaign, and while he is on pace to throw at least 20 TDs for the first time with 11 through seven games, that's a pretty low bar to clear. Rico Dowdle and Tetairoa McMillan offer the offense a little upside, and the defense has clawed its way up to mediocrity, but it's hard to see this roster taking a big leap forward without Young doing the same – or Carolina finding an upgrade at QB elsewhere.
It wasn't exactly a torch-passing, but Julian Love proved to Packers fans last week that Aaron Rodgers is the past and he's the present, and the future. Green Bay's won three straight since a Week 5 bye to surge to the top of the NFC North, and the team has failed to score at least 27 points in a game only once in 2025 with Love marshalling the offense. The receiver room got a bit healthier and more crowded last week when Christian Watson made his season debut, but it's hard to say it's appreciably better, as Tucker Kraft remains Love's only truly reliable option. Josh Jacobs fantasy investors also won't sweat his 3.6 YPC as long as he keeps getting the job done at the goal line – he's racked up seven rushing TDs in the last four games, and his nine on the year are second to Jonathan Taylor. The defense has also been stingy, sitting second in yards per play allowed, and the splash plays could be coming in bunches in the second half – Micah Parsons and the pass rush have piled up 10 sacks during the three-game winning streak, and Parsons is up to 6.5 in his first seven games with Green Bay.
Key Info
CAR injury report: LG Damien Lewis (questionable, oblique), C Cade Mays (out, ankle), RG Robert Hunt (IR, biceps), RG Chandler Zavala (IR, knee), RG Brady Christensen (IR, Achilles), RT Taylor Moton (questionable, knee), LB Trevin Wallace (questionable, shoulder), S Nick Scott (questionable, groin)
GB injury report: RB Josh Jacobs (questionable, calf), WR Jayden Reed (IR, collarbone), WR Christian Watson (questionable, knee), WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable, calf), LG Aaron Banks (questionable, shin), RG Jordan Morgan (questionable, illness), RT Zach Tom (questionable, back), EDGE Lukas Van Ness (questionable, foot), DT Devonte Wyatt (questionable, knee), LB Quay Walker (questionable, calf)
Slight lean: WR Xavier Legette (GB 25th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong lean: TE Tucker Kraft (CAR 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
Slight fade: RB Rico Dowdle / Chuba Hubbard (GB third in rushing yards per game allowed, fourth in YPC allowed, t-third in rushing TDs allowed, sixth in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Slight fade: WR Matthew Golden (CAR third in DVOA vs. WR2)
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NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 30-40 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Dowdle leads the CAR backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Young throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does hit McMillan for a score. Jacobs gets held out of the end zone and manages 70 yards. Love throws for 280 yards and three TDs, one to Romeo Doubs (who tops 100 yards) and two more to Kraft. Packers 24-14
Denver (+1.5) at Houston, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
We might be about to see just how much an elite corner is worth. Patrick Surtain's pec strain is going to sideline him for at least a few weeks, although the Broncos are crossing their fingers that an IR stint won't be necessary. He's been his usual shutdown self in 2025, allowing zero TDs so far in coverage with a sub-50 percent completion rate, but having Surtain unavailable for a matchup with Nico Collins is far from ideal. Putting first-round pick Jahdae Barron in a bigger role now could pay dividends later, and the Broncos in general have a strong secondary in general, but we're still talking about the reigning Defensive Player of the Year here. The Broncos' spot at the top of the AFC West is precarious – they're 6-2 after reeling off five straight wins, but both Kansas City and the Bolts are breathing down their neck at 5-3 – so there will be added pressure on Bo Nix to keep doing what he's been doing the last couple weeks. Nix erupted for eight totals TDs against the Giants and Cowboys, six through the air and two on the ground, but there's a Texas-sized difference between the defenses in Dallas and Houston.
The Texans may have waited a bit too late to get rolling. After holding serve at home against the Niners last week, Houston is just 3-4, while Indianapolis is lording it over the rest of the AFC South at 7-1. Still, a nice little win streak would put them firmly in wild-card contention, and DeMeco Ryans' defense isn't one anyone will want to face in the postseason. They're given up more than 20 points only once so far this season – on the road in Seattle – and sit first in PPG allowed, and the only offense to gain more than 316 yards of offense against them was Tampa's. Will Anderson, Derek Stingley and company are top seven in yards per play allowed, takeaways and third-down efficiency against, and first in QB rating against. C.J. Stroud is also getting better protection as the offensive line finally begins to gel, as he wasn't sacked last week for the first time all year, and he's got a 68.5 percent completion rate, 7.2 YPA and 9:2 TD:INT while winning three of the last four. If he can get back to his rookie-season form, the Texans could be a true force in the second half, but their schedule won't make it easy – they still have two games coming against the Colts, plus tilts against Kansas City, Buffalo and the Chargers.
Key Info
DEN injury report: WR Marvin Mims (questionable, concussion), LG Ben Powers (IR, biceps), CB Patrick Surtain (doubtful, pectoral)
HOU injury report: RB Woody Marks (questionable, calf), RB Joe Mixon (NFI, foot), WR Tank Dell (PUP, knee), TE Dalton Schultz (questionable, knee), EDGE Denico Autry (questionable, knee)
No leans for DEN. The HOU defense has been tough across the board
Slight lean: RB Nick Chubb / Woody Marks (DEN 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Strong fade: QB Bo Nix (HOU first in passing DVOA, first in passing TDs allowed, fourth in passing yards per game allowed)
Slight fade: TE Dalton Schultz (DEN seventh in DVOA vs. TE)
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NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: J.K. Dobbins leads the DEN backfield with 60 yards and a TD. Nix throws for less than 200 yards but finds Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin for touchdowns. Chubb leads the HOU backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Stroud throws for 230 yards and two TDs, one each to Jayden Higgins and Collins, the latter being the game-winner in the fourth quarter. Texans 24-21
Atlanta (+5.5) at New England, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
There's at least a couple teams around the league relieved that the Falcons were so stubborn about getting 'fair value' in a trade for Kirk Cousins after last week's debacle. Sure, Drake London was yanked out of the lineup at the last minute, but there's still no excuse for putting up just 10 points and a measly 213 yards of offense against the Dolphins. Atlanta's offense in general has just gone full Chaos Crew in 2025, and I'm here for it. This is a team that got shut out by Carolina back in Week 3, but also piled up 443 yards in an upset over Buffalo in Week 6. Michael Penix might be able to return for this one, as might London, but even if they don't, it'll be on Bijan Robinson to keep the team competitive. Robinson's been held to just 65 rushing yards and a 2.8 YPC over the last two weeks, but he was able to make up for it through the air in Week 7. Raheem Morris' defense is one of seven allowed fewer than 5.0 yards a play, but a lack of splash plays makes them more good than great, and they might need to step up to great to make up for the wildly inconsistent attack.
If you're expecting the Patriots to fade out of the AFC East title picture, think again. Sure, they're playing well, and Mike Vrabel's an early Coach of the Year favorite alongside Shane Steichen, but their remaining schedule also looks like it was cranked out by a pastry chef – it's almost nothing but creampuffs. They do get a rematch with the Bills (New England won the first meeting in Buffalo) as well as a road trip to Tampa Bay and a Week 16 clash with a Ravens team that may or may not be good by then, and... that's about it. The rest of their remaining opponents currently have a .220 winning percentage on the year (9-32 combined record, double-counting the Jets). MVP talk for Drake Maye might be a little premature, but he's been absolutely electric during a five-game win streak, posting a 77.5 percent completion rate, 10.3 YPA and 10:1 TD:INT despite having a pass-catching group headed by the aging Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry. It's the mark of a great, not just good, QB when you can turn guys like Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte into real threats. I'm becoming less and less certain that TreVeyon Henderson will earn Vrabel's trust, but the coach may have no choice this week but to give the rookie a chance, and one big performance might be all it takes. Or maybe undrafted second-year back Terrell Jennings gets an absurdly high workload out of stubbornness. Vrabel was the guy who finally made Derrick Henry a full-time starter in Tennessee, but maybe the lesson he took from that was, "I want a big physical No. 1 in the backfield", not "get the more talented guy more touches".
Key Info
ATL injury report: RT Kaleb McGary (IR, leg), EDGE Zach Harrison (out, knee), EDGE Leonard Floyd (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Jalon Walker (questionable, groin), CB Billy Bowman (out, hamstring), S Jessie Bates (questionable, knee)
NE injury report: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (out, toe)
Slight lean: WR Drake London (NE 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: WR DeMario Douglas (ATL t-27th in receptions allowed to WR3s)
Slight fade: RB Bijan Robinson (NE fifth in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed, second in rushing yards per game allowed)
Strong fade: TE Hunter Henry (ATL second in DVOA vs. TE)
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NFL weather report: 5-15 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Robinson pieces together 70 scrimmage yards. Penix starts and throws for less than 200 yards, but he does remember Darnell Mooney is on the team and tosses him a touchdown. Henderson leads the NE backfield with 100 yards and a TD. Maye throws for 270 yards and one score to Diggs while running in a touchdown of his own. Patriots 30-13
San Francisco at NY Giants (+2.5), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
It's been one step forward, one step back lately for the injury-riddled 49ers, who are 2-3 since their season-opening three-game win streak. The offense is getting healthier, or at least getting off the injury report, and Brock Purdy has progressed to the point that Kyle Shanahan says it's "not a long shot" he'll play this week, which I think translates from coachspeak into "suck it up and get out there, kid". Mac Jones has been adequate as a replacement, but he's no Sam Darnold or Daniel Jones, posting a 65.8 percent completion rate, 7.1 YPA and 4:4 TD:INT over his last four starts. (Of course, Mac hasn't been 100 percent healthy during that stretch either). Really, the only reason the Niners have a winning record at all is Christian McCaffrey, who's seven yards back of Jonathan Taylor atop the scrimmage yards leaderboard thanks to an absurd 56-55-9-3 line on 74 targets through eight games. CMac's third in the league in targets and second in receptions, and that's among all players – not just RBs. Those injury scales apparently have to be balanced though, and for every player on offense that returns to action, it seems like a new one breaks down on defense. Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are both done for the year, and the depth in the front seven and the secondary is being stress-tested. Somehow DC Robert Saleh's unit hasn't collapsed completely, but rough October showings against the Rams and Texans were ominous signs.
The Giants don't want to hear anyone else whining about injuries. Last week's loss of Cam Skattebo was arguably even more devastating than having Malik Nabers go down for the season in Week 4. Skattebo, even moreso than Jaxson Dart, seemed to embody the spirit of optimism that was beginning to creep into the locker room despite the team's 2-6 record. Brian Daboll's crew now features a defense that can't really stop anyone (bottom seven in PPG allowed and yards per play allowed) and which has a supporting cast for Dart led by Tyrone Tracy and Wan'Dale Robinson. The rookie QB has produced 12 TDs in his five starts (eight passing, four rushing), but his 59.9 percent completion rate and 6.9 YPA during that span are far less encouraging, and it wouldn't be a shock if the Giants didn't win again until a Week 17 trip to Las Vegas given their remaining schedule. Then again, if they keep playing teams even more banged up than they are, who knows?
Key Info
SF injury report: QB Brock Purdy (questionable, toe), WR Ricky Pearsall (questionable, knee), WR Brandon Aiyuk (PUP, knee), LG Ben Bartch (IR, ankle), C Jake Brendel (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Nick Bosa (IR, knee), EDGE Bryce Huff (questionable, hamstring), LB Fred Warner (IR, ankle), LB Dee Winters (questionable, knee), CB Upton Stout (questionable, shoulder)
NYG injury report: RB Cam Skattebo (IR, ankle), WR Malik Nabers (IR, knee), RT Jermaine Eluemunor (doubtful, pectoral), LB Micah McFadden (IR, foot), CB Paulson Adebo (out, knee), CB Cor'Dale Flott (out, concussion), S Jevon Holland (questionable, knee)
Strong lean: RB Christian McCaffrey (NYG 32nd in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed to RBs)
Strong lean: WR Darius Slayton (SF 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: WR Demarcus Robinson (NYG fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight fade: WR Wan'Dale Robinson (SF eighth in DVOA vs. WR1)
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NFL weather report: 10-20 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: McCaffrey manages 80 combined yards and a TD. Purdy returns and throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Jauan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne. Tracy manages 70 yards. Dart throws for 200 yards and two scores, hitting Slayton and Theo Johnson. Niners 24-20
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (+3), o/u 50.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Colts continue to steamroll over their opposition, winning four straight games and topping 30 points each time. It's mainly been the Jonathan Taylor Show, as he leads the NFL in scrimmage yards and scoring thanks to 14 total TDs. That's the entire NFL, mind you, kickers included. He's actually 12 points clear of Brandon Aubrey right now. The last non-kicker to lead the league in scoring was LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, his 31-TD campaign. Taylor on pace for 30. Which is not to say that Daniel Jones has been slacking — the shoo-in Comeback Player of the Year has tossed multiple touchdowns in four straight, and he's fourth in the league in passing yards, completion percentage and YPA. Tyler Warren is Jones' only target tracking toward 1,000 yards (Michael Pittman's pace will see him just miss), but it's still an offense that's done pretty much everything right. The defense is middle of the pack in yards per play allowed at 5.4 but tied for third in takeaways and tied for fifth in sacks, leading to sixth place in PPG allowed at 19.3. That likely won't last – playing the Titans twice, plus the Raiders and Dolphins, will help anyone's point suppression – but the offense is giving DC Lou Anarumo's unit a big cushion, and who knows what reinforcements the trade deadline will bring?
The Steelers are on top of the AFC North, but they're also the only team in the division with a winning record at 4-3, and none of the four squads have a positive point differential – Pittsburgh's at an even zero. The defense seems to be melting down, though. They've lost two straight, coughing up over 450 yards and 30 points each time as injuries in the secondary begin to pile up. Trading for Kyle Dugger, who had trouble getting on the field in New England, should provide at least a band-aid, but the more effective solution might be a better performance from the pass rush, which has been a little less than the sum of its parts so far. The Steelers are 24th in yards per play allowed, and 22nd in PPG allowed, and that's not really what Aaron Rodgers signed up for – the idea was that he simply had to raise the floor on the offense, and the defense would provide the ceiling. He's held up his end of that bargain, at least, tossing multiple TDs in three straight games as he heads toward his best campaign since 2021. If there's cause for some optimism on that side of the ball, it's coming from 2024 third-round pick Roman Wilson, who finally looks healthy and is coming off his best NFL performance yet, going off for 4-74-1 against the Packers, albeit on just five targets. If he can become the downfield threat opposite DK Metcalf that Calvin Austin isn't really suited to being, things might get interesting for the Steelers passing game.
Key Info
IND injury report: K Spencer Shrader (IR, knee), CB Charvarius Ward (IR, concussion), CB Jaylon Jones (IR, hamstring)
PIT injury report: LB Cole Holcomb (questionable, illness), S DeShon Elliott (IR, knee), S Chuck Clark (questionable, illness)
Slight lean: WR Michael Pittman (PIT 27th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: WR Calvin Austin (IND 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: WR Alec Pierce (PIT fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong fade: WR DK Metcalf (IND first in DVOA vs. WR1)
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NFL weather report: 40-50 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Taylor romps for 140 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Jones throws for 320 yards and three TDs, two to Pittman (who tops 100 yards) and one to TWarren. Jaylen Warren responds with 100 combined yards and his first rushing score of the season. Rodgers throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Wilson and Jonnu Smith, but it's not enough. Colts 35-24
L.A. Chargers at Tennessee (+10), o/u 43.5, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Chargers finally picked up a win against a quality non-divisional opponent last week when they beat the Vikings, and their reward is a road trip to face one of this season's doormats. (Of course, they already lost to one of the others on the road back in Week 4 when they flopped against the Giants, but I'm sure that's nothing to worry about.) even with Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris out, OC Greg Roman's rushing attack has kept right on churning, with Kimani Vidal topping 100 yards in two of the last three games, and Justin Herbert keeps hitting big money when he spins his Wheel of Pass-Catchers, mainly landing on Ladd McConkey and rookie TE Oronde Gadsden in recent contests, with end-zone cameos from Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston and even rookie Tre' Harris. As the offense has gotten healthier, particularly along the o-line, the Bolts have averaged 30.0 points and 422.3 yards over the last three weeks, and that might stay the norm, especially once Hampton is able to return. With the defense creeping toward the top 10 in yards per play allowed and PPG allowed as well, they're still a serious threat in what's shaping up to be a titanic three-way battle for the AFC West title.
You can't say Cam Ward isn't trying, but the 2025 first overall pick has yet to throw multiple TDs in a game in his NFL career, and he's beginning to watch his supporting cast disappear along with his former coach. Roger McCreary just got dealt to the Rams, and the only thing that might be stopping players like Calvin Ridley and Arden Key from joining the exodus is the fact that they aren't healthy right now (or at least, they aren't "healthy" enough to get risked ahead of the deadline.) There are little flickers of hope here and there – Tyjae Spears might be about to take the top job in the backfield, and rookie tight end Gunnar Helm is beginning to make a mark – but only Las Vegas and Cleveland are in the running as the worst offense in the league, and the Tennessee defense isn't much better. With the Jets on the board with a win, the Titans might be the favorites right now to return to the top of the 2026 draft.
Key Info
LAC injury report: RB Omarion Hampton (IR, ankle), RB Najee Harris (IR, Achilles), RB Hassan Haskins (out, hamstring), LT Rashawn Slater (IR, knee), RG Mekhi Becton (questionable, knee), CB Tarheeb Still (out, knee)
TEN injury report: WR Calvin Ridley (out, hamstring), EDGE Jeffery Simmons (out, hamstring), EDGE Arden Key (out, quadriceps), CB L'Jarius Sneed (IR, quadriceps), S Xavier Woods (out, hamstring)
Strong lean: WR Ladd McConkey (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: TE Chig Okonkwo / Gunnar Helm (LAC 26th in DVOA vs. TE)
Slight fade: TE Oronde Gadsden (TEN sixth in DVOA vs. TE)
Strong fade: WR Van Jefferson (LAC first in DVOA vs. WR2)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 10-20 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Vidal picks up 70 yards and a score, while Jaret Patterson adds 50 yards. Herbert throws for 220 yards and two touchdowns, hitting McConkey and Allen. Spears leads the TEN backfield with 60 yards and a TD. Ward throws for under 200 yards and coughs up the ball three times. Chargers 24-10
LATE SUNDAY
New Orleans (+14) at L.A. Rams, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
To what should have been the surprise of no one, Spencer Rattler got benched last week, and what could be the very brief Tyler Shough era began. For the record, I don't think Shough's the answer for the Saints, and they should go back to the well with their first-round pick in 2026, but we'll see how invested Kellen Moore is in making it work with the first QB he ever drafted as a head coach. (Moore might want to take a look at how things worked out for Will Levis in Tennessee before deciding whether he wants to die on that hill.) The team seems unwilling to ship out significant talent at the trade deadline, so Shough should at least have a decent supporting cast the rest of the way, albeit a fragile one between Alvin Kamara's age and mileage, Chris Olave's concussions and Rashid Shaheed's skinny frame. The Saints' defense hasn't been outright terrible, so if the offense can build some momentum, they might be able to put a scare or two into some playoff contenders. That said, they don't have many remaining on their schedule after this week aside from a Week 14 trip to Tampa Bay, although they could play spoiler to whatever wild-card hopes the Panthers and Falcons are harboring.
The NFC West promises to be just as much of a dogfight as its AFC counterpart, as the Rams are one of three five-win teams heading into Week 9. Sean McVay's crew put together its best all-around performance right before a Week 8 bye, squashing the Jags in Jacksonville, and DC Chris Shula's unit has given up a total of 10 points in the last two games, and has held three opponents this season to single digits. If there's an area McVay would probably like to get going its the running attack, as Kyren Williams has yet to reach 100 rushing yards in a game and has just one of his patented multi-touchdown eruptions. As long as Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams stay healthy though, they're probably going to remain the focal point.
Key Info
NO injury report: RB Alvin Kamara (questionable, ankle), WR Rashid Shaheed (questionable, hip), C Erik McCoy (IR, bicep), CB Alontae Taylor (questionable, shoulder)
LAR injury report: WR Tutu Atwell (IR, hamstring), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (IR, collarbone), CB Darious Williams (doubtful, shoulder)
Slight lean: WR Devaughn Vele (LAR 28th in receiving yards per game allowed to WR3s)
Slight lean: TE Tyler Higbee (NO 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
Strong fade: QB Tyler Shough (LAR second in passing DVOA, t-third in passing TDs allowed to QBs)
Slight fade: WR Davante Adams (NO 10th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Kamara picks up 70 scrimmage yards. Shough throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Cobie Durant returns to the house, but he does find Olave for his first career touchdown pass. Williams pieces together 70 yards. Stafford throws for 270 yards and two scores, hitting Nacua and Higbee. Rams 27-10
Jacksonville at Las Vegas (+3), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Jaguars fans can be forgiven for having that familiar sinking feeling in their stomachs. Two straight losses at home prior to their Week 8 bye, including a thorough dismantling by the Rams, have allowed the Colts to pull away in the AFC South, and at the moment the Jags would be on the outside looking in for a wild-card spot. The shotgun marriage between Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence has been the biggest issue for the team so far, and a Baker Mayfield-like renaissance doesn't appear to be on the horizon. Lawrence has managed to top a 6.5 YPA in only one of his seven starts in 2025, and a 58.7 percent completion rate, 6.3 YPA and 9:5 TD:INT on the year just aren't going to cut it. The QB's regression has taken Brian Thomas with him, and now Travis Hunter's on the shelf for at least four weeks just as his slow ramp-up was about to accelerate. An opportunistic defense that sits second in takeaways has been keeping the Jags afloat, but there's no telling how long that luck might last.
The Raiders are also coming off their bye, and also coming off an embarrassing loss, but at least they had theirs away from home as they got spanked 31-0 in Kansas City. Pete Carroll's return to NFL coaching is beginning to look like a mistake, although Chip Kelly's is probably a bigger one. Vegas has been bad on both sides of the ball, but Kelly's scheme has left Geno Smith with a 7:10 TD:INT, and Ashton Jeanty wondering where all the holes he ran through at Boise State went. If Brock Bowers is finally healthy it'll help, and Smith does get a familiar face in Tyler Lockett to throw to, but Jakobi Meyers' time in black and silver seems about to end. The defense has been more mediocre than awful, but it's mediocre across the board, so the opposition tends to be able to do whatever it is they want.
Key Info
JAC injury report: WR/CB Travis Hunter (IR, knee), TE Brenton Strange (IR, quadriceps), LB Devin Lloyd (questionable, calf), S Eric Murray (IR, neck)
LV injury report: LT Kolton Miller (IR, ankle)
Slight lean: WR Brian Thomas (LV 22nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: WR Jakobi Meyers (JAC 24th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: TE Hunter Long (LV t-sixth in receptions per game allowed to TEs)
Strong fade: WR Tre Tucker (JAC second in DVOA vs. WR2)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Travis Etienne gains 70 yards and a score. Lawrence throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Parker Washington, and a Maxx Crosby strip sacks leads to a Malcolm Koonce touchdown. Jeanty gets held to 50 yards. Smith throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Bowers, but he gets picked off twice. Jaguars 20-14
Kansas City at Buffalo (+2), o/u 52.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
The week's heavyweight main event is in the AFC, but both title contenders come into it at less than 100 percent. Kansas City rolls into this one having won three straight, and Patrick Mahomes is looking like his old self, tossing three TDs in all three wins. Over his last five starts, he's delivered a 71.8 percent completion rate, 8.1 YPA and 14:3 TD:INT, and just about everything seems to be clicking for the passing game now that Rashee Rice is back. Isiah Pacheco will be missing from the backfield, but Kareem Hunt has been Old Reliable and it could be an opportunity to see what rookie Brashard Smith can do in something other than a blowout, after he piled up 81 scrimmage yards on 19 touches a couple weeks ago against the Raiders. DC Steve Spagnuolo's unit has given up a total of 24 points over the winning streak, and the only team that's broken the 30-point mark against KC this season was the Jaguars in Week 5, and they needed a 99-yard INT return to do it. If you're in the "oh no, not these guys again" camp or feel compelled to take a principled political stand against Taylor Swift, then you can tell yourself that obviously Kansas City is peaking too early. Obviously.
The Bills, on the other hand, definitely are not peaking too early. While last week's rout of the Panthers felt like a needed get-right performance, it came at a cost as Ed Oliver is done for the year, leaving a massive hole in the middle of the front seven. Buffalo's had one of the worst run defenses in the league this season, largely because Oliver's played only one full game, and it's a vulnerability Andy Reid isn't likely to miss exploiting. That might just give Josh Allen an opportunity for more heroics, though. While he has yet to solve KC in the playoffs, Allen's followed up his 2024 MVP campaign with his most efficient season yet, completing a career-high 68.0 percent of his passes with a 7.9 YPA and producing 17 TDs (12 passing, five rushing) in seven starts. James Cook is thundering toward a career-best season as well, and the Bills could always try trading for another big-name wideout, but if they're going to chase down the Patriots in the AFC East, it'll be on Allen's shoulders.
Key Info
KC injury report: RB Isiah Pacheco (out, knee), LT Josh Simmons (out, personal), LT Jaylon Moore (questionable, illness), RG Trey Smith (questionable, back)
BUF injury report: WR Joshua Palmer (out, knee), K Tyler Bass (IR, hip), DT Ed Oliver (IR, bicep), DT DaQuan Jones (out, calf), CB Taron Johnson (questionable, groin), S Taylor Rapp (IR, knee)
Slight lean: WR Xavier Worthy (BUF 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight lean: WR Keon Coleman (KC t-25th in receptions per game allowed to WR2s)
Strong fade: WR Hollywood Brown (BUF first in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight fade: TE Dalton Kincaid (KC fourth in DVOA vs. TE)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 60-70 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 5-4 KC (but 4-1 BUF in the regular season), average score 27-27 (27.0-26.9 KC), average margin of victory eight points. BUF has won four straight regular-season meetings by an average score of 28-20. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by six points or fewer
The Scoop: Hunt picks up 60 yards and a touchdown, but Smith leads the KC backfield with 70 combined yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 260 yards and two scores, both to Rice, while Worthy tops 100 yards. Cook bangs out 110 yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 230 yards and two TDs, hitting Coleman and Khalil Shakir, while running in a score of his own, but Mahomes has the last laugh with a game-winning FG drive. Kansas City 31-28
SUNDAY NIGHT
Seattle at Washington (+3.5), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST
The Seahawks come out of their bye in good shape, both health-wise and in the standings. Sam Darnold's been even better than he was last year in Minnesota, sitting first in the league in YPA at 9.1, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as a true WR1, leading the NFL in receiving yards with 819 and sliding into the top 10 in yards per target. JSN hasn't gotten a lot of help downfield aside from an early-season TD flurry from tight end AJ Barner, but it might be time to see what rookie wideout Tory Horton can do with Cooper Kupp beginning to break down again. The backfield seems to have settled into a split where Kenneth Walker does most of the damage between the 20s and Zach Charbonnet cleans up at the goal line, but it's been effective. The Seattle defense has really been leading the way, though. They're seventh in PPG allowed, but I'm not sure how – they're third in yards per play allowed thanks to the league's top run defense, and top six in QB rating against and sacks. The NFC West may not be decided until the final weekend (when Seattle will be in San Francisco), but Mike Macdonald's crew should be in the race right to the end.
The Commanders fell to 3-5 last week after their third straight loss and fourth in the last five games, as injuries have limited Jayden Daniels and sapped the offense in general. Daniels will be back this week, but multiple lower-body issues have to be a huge concern for Washington given his playing style. Terry McLaurin is still sidelined though, adding another data point to the theory that players who hold out all of training camp are must-avoids at the draft table, and rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt has yet to follow up his big Week 5 performance against the Chargers. This isn't the week to buck that trend. Dan Quinn's defense remains, to put it charitably, a work in progress, so the Commanders' best shot at climbing back into the NFC playoff picture will have to come via a healthy and productive Daniels.
Key Info
SEA injury report: WR Cooper Kupp (questionable, hamstring), RG Christian Haynes (IR, pectoral), DE Jarran Reed (questionable, wrist), S Julian Love (out, hamstring)
WAS injury report: RB Austin Ekeler (IR, Achilles), WR Terry McLaurin (out, quadriceps), WR Noah Brown (IR, groin), LT Laremy Tunsil (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Dorance Armstrong (IR, knee), EDGE Deatrich Wise (IR, quadriceps)
Slight lean: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WAS 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: TE Zach Ertz (SEA 22nd in DVOA vs. TE)
Very slight fade: WR Tory Horton (WAS 17th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong fade: RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (SEA second in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards allowed per game, t-second in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 25-45 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Walker leads the SEA backfield with 70 yards, while Charbonnet adds 40. Darnold throws for 290 yards and three scores, two to JSN (who tops 100 yards) and one to Elijah Arroyo. JCM ekes out 60 yards. Daniels throws for under 200 yards and runs in one TD while throwing another to Ertz. Seahawks 27-20
THURSDAY NIGHT
Baltimore at Miami (+7.5), o/u 50.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
If the Ravens do end up picking themselves up off the mat, they can thank Tyler Huntley. The career backup made his first start of the season last week and completed 77.3 percent of his passes with an 8.5 YPA while adding 53 rushing yards in a win over the Bears. Baltimore's only 2-5, but Pittsburgh's still well within reach atop the AFC North at 4-3, and the two teams don't meet until Week 14, with the rematch coming on the final weekend. If Lamar Jackson were in danger of missing more time, that kind of comeback might be unthinkable, but he's set to return in Miami. Derrick Henry has started to rumble to life, and the defense played a bit better against Chicago, but this is Jackson's season to save. The Ravens scored 111 points in their first three games before he got hurt in Week 4, and that's probably the kind of production they'll need on that side of the ball to stay competitive. DC Zach Orr's unit isn't Dallas or Cincinnati-level bad this year, but it's pretty bad, ranking 25th in yards per play allowed, 30th in points per game allowed, tied for 30th in takeaways and 30th in sacks. Perhaps improvement is coming as the Ravens get healthier, however.
The Dolphins also pulled a win out of their... helmets last week, taking advantage of the Falcons having to put the moldering remains of Kirk Cousins at QB to steal a victory in Atlanta. There was undoubtedly some measure of wounded pride involved for the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, who produced his best performance of the season one week after his worst while battling the elements in Cleveland, but this still seems like a team with impending doom looming over it. The secondary lost another starter when Storm Duck (no relation to Howard, I don't think) went down for the season, and Tyreek Hill might never walk through that door again. There's still enough talent on offense to make some noise against a generous defense like Baltimore's, but DC Anthony Weaver's troops have been pretty accommodating too, ranking 28th in yards per play allowed, tied for 26th in points per game allowed and 27th in third-down efficiency allowed.
Key Info
BAL injury report: LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, ankle), EDGE Nnamdi Madubuike (IR, neck)
MIA injury report: WR Tyreek Hill (IR, knee), TE Darren Waller (IR, pectoral), TE Julian Hill (questionable, ankle), LG Liam Eichenberg (PUP, undisclosed), RG James Daniels (IR, pectoral), RT Austin Jackson (IR, toe), K Jason Sanders (IR, hip), EDGE Bradley Chubb (questionable, shoulder), CB Storm Duck (IR, knee), CB Kader Kohou (IR, knee), S Ashtyn Davis (questionable, quadriceps)
Strong lean: QB Lamar Jackson (MIA 29th in passing DVOA, 31st in QB rating against, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed to QBs)
Slight lean: WR Jaylen Waddle (BAL 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: WR Rashod Bateman (MIA first in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Slight fade: WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (BAL 19th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Henry thunders for 100 yards and a touchdown, while Justice Hill adds 50 scrimmage yards. Jackson throws for 250 yards and a TD to Isaiah Likely while running in a score of his own. De'Von Achane responds with 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Tagovailoa throws for 210 yards and two TDs, hitting Waddle and Malik Washington, but he also throws a back-breaking INT in the fourth quarter that sets up Tyler Loop's game-winning FG. Ravens 27-24
Last week's record: 8-5, 7-6 ATS, 9-4 o/u
2025 record: 79-41-1 (.658), 66-53-2 ATS (.555), 58-62-1 o/u (.483)
