New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos 
Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for AFC Championship Game
The Patriots and Broncos face off in a battle of the AFC's elite for the right to represent the conference in Super Bowl LX. Read on for best bets and props for the AFC title game clash.
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Patriots vs. Broncos Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Patriots -218 (DraftKings), Broncos +190 (BetRivers)
- Point spread: Patriots -4 (BetMGM), Broncos +4.5 (Fanatics)
- Totals: Over 42.5 (FanDuel), Under 43 (Caesars)
The spread for this game has been moving over a fairly tight range across major sportsbooks, but given Broncos QB Bo Nix (ankle) was already confirmed out for this game before the initial number was released, Denver has been an underdog throughout, catching between 3.5 and 4.5 points.
Meanwhile, the total has been a bit more active overall. The number dipped as low as 40.5 points at one point early in the week, but bettors have pushed that figure up over the course of the last few days to as high as 43.5 at some sportsbooks. Broncos QB Jarrett Stidham's presence for Denver naturally lowers overall offensive expectations, but the fact he's an experienced player who's flashed upside on occasion and explosive rookie WR Pat Bryant doesn't carry an injury designation may have helped inspire a bit more confidence.
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Patriots vs. Broncos Betting Picks
Patriots vs. Broncos NFL Picks
While the old adage about not crying over spilt milk certainly has validity, it would be difficult to blame Broncos head coach Sean Payton and his team from not taking at least a short bit of time to mourn what may have been had Nix been at full health for this matchup.
However, if that indeed happened, it likely was over and done with by early Monday, as Payton and his staff had no choice but to get Stidham ready to face off with the team that selected him in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. That task would be far from the most daunting Payton has faced, as Stidham was once one of the most sought-after high school prospects in the country, and, despite not having lived up to that pedigree since, has still proven amply capable of solid stretches of play.
Stidham technically has 21 games of NFL regular-season experience, but he hasn't thrown anything but a preseason pass since 2023. That was Payton's initial season at the Broncos' helm, and Stidham completed 40 of 66 passes for 496 yards with a 2:1 TD:INT. He also was outstanding during the 2025 preseason, connecting on 78.9 percent of his passes with a 4:0 TD:INT across two games. While that was naturally in a very different setting than the one he'll find himself in Sunday, it does provide some more recent film to go off if attempting to assess what Stidham's level of proficiency might be in Payton's scheme.
Payton's significant prowess as an offensive coach should make a notable impact in this game, and the Broncos are far from dead in the water despite Nix's absence. However, even if Stidham turns in a higher-percentile effort, the fact remains he's facing a defense that could give any quarterback fits. The Patriots have allowed just 287.7 total yards and 5.0 yards per play since the start of the regular season, and there's no question that Stidham will have some rust to work off, particularly when it comes to pocket awareness and reading complex coverages.
As such, I'm in the camp of Denver putting together a very competent performance in front of its passionate home crowd, but coming up just short in a game that will have a bit more scoring than what some totals project. The Broncos' defense, which led the NFL by a wide margin with 68 regular-season sacks, will certainly help keep Denver close, but Stidham and his solid group of skill-position assets will also play a part in a Broncos cover.
Texans vs. Patriots Best Bets
- Broncos +4.5 (Fanatics Sportsbook)
- Over 42.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Texans vs. Patriots Prediction
As already covered, Stidham is likely to going to surprise with the quality of his performance, even if the Broncos' offense naturally loses upside without Nix under center. Given Payton's coaching acumen and perhaps even a bit of extra incentive for Stidham beyond the stakes in that he's facing his original squad, I expect an extremely close game that will likely hinge on one late mistake. I'll give the healthier team the slight edge and see Maye doing enough to propel his team to Super Sunday.
Patriots 24, Broncos 21
