Week 17 is here and for the Underdog Battle Royale slate we have nine games to choose from. As we always do in this article, we will be taking a look at the draft games from a high level macro view and trying to help you draft smarter teams with a real chance to win. Let's dive in and start breaking the slate down.
For all of these data points, the sims and ADP is run as of Friday morning.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Football News & Latest NFL Updates or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
Roster Structure
RBs | WRs | TEs | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | 1 | 78.11% |
1 | 3 | 1 | 19.60% |
1 | 2 | 2 | 2.29% |
This looks extremely similar to last week with RB once again dominating the flex, and with about 20 percent of optimal sim lineups containing a third WR. You can once again ignore TE flex options.
What ADPs to Draft
No adjustments to the rules for the sim, so for a refresher read up below.
Just a reminder here are the buckets and the rules on how they can be "drafted".
- ADP <= 6
- ADP > 6 and <= 10
- ADP > 10 and < 28
- ADP >= 28
By no means are these buckets at all perfect but we need some rules to allow the sim to build "reasonable" teams. Per the rules, you are allowed at most ONE player in Bucket One, TWO players in
Week 17 is here and for the Underdog Battle Royale slate we have nine games to choose from. As we always do in this article, we will be taking a look at the draft games from a high level macro view and trying to help you draft smarter teams with a real chance to win. Let's dive in and start breaking the slate down.
For all of these data points, the sims and ADP is run as of Friday morning.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Football News & Latest NFL Updates or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
Roster Structure
RBs | WRs | TEs | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | 1 | 78.11% |
1 | 3 | 1 | 19.60% |
1 | 2 | 2 | 2.29% |
This looks extremely similar to last week with RB once again dominating the flex, and with about 20 percent of optimal sim lineups containing a third WR. You can once again ignore TE flex options.
What ADPs to Draft
No adjustments to the rules for the sim, so for a refresher read up below.
Just a reminder here are the buckets and the rules on how they can be "drafted".
- ADP <= 6
- ADP > 6 and <= 10
- ADP > 10 and < 28
- ADP >= 28
By no means are these buckets at all perfect but we need some rules to allow the sim to build "reasonable" teams. Per the rules, you are allowed at most ONE player in Bucket One, TWO players in Bucket Two, THREE players in Bucket Three, and FOUR Players in Bucket Four. Additionally you may only take TWO players across Bucket One and Two and THREE players total across Bucket Two and Three. Again, this is not perfect but it does the job for what we are trying to accomplish. Let's take a look at how the sim actually built teams.
Bucket One | Bucket Two | Bucket Three | Bucket Four | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 27.33% |
1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17.48% |
1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10.33% |
1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9.40% |
1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7.61% |
1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5.81% |
0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4.94% |
0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3.41% |
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3.38% |
0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3.14% |
0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2.60% |
0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1.85% |
0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1.38% |
0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.34% |
Once again, this week seems to align with the top of drafts looking to be clearly a step above. The top six optimal structures include taking one of the five Bucket One players. There does not seem to be as much love for Bucket Four as usual as the heavy scroll down teams seem less optimal than their more standard ADP following counterparts. This makes complete sense with the thinner than usual pool with only the nine games.
QB Analysis
There are no QBs being taking in the top-10 picks, meaning there are no Bucket One or Two QBs. However, there are five in Bucket Three, meaning that drafters seem to be coming together and taking these options at a high rate.
However, the "winning" QB comes from outside of those top five players at an over 46 percent clip. Two players that the projections and sims like the most from that other grouping are Tyler Shough and Jaxson Dart. Dart is coming off a horrendous game but gets a fantastic matchup, and Shough has been on a roll lately and is definitely on the upswing. At QB8 and QB9 by ADP, they will not be highly drafted and offer interesting leverage on the field.
TE Analysis
Trey McBride has an ADP of 3.3 which is insane for a TE and not something you see. The matchup is insane, but he is only optimal 18 percent of the time likely due to how hard it is for him to separate from the other elite options up top. I do not think you should fade him but understand this is not the usual bet we are making with him.
Beyond him, we have Bucket Three Harold Fannin and then all other TEs are in Bucket Four. Eight of these Bucket Four guys have optimal rates over five percent including Juwan Johnson and Theo Johnson as pairings with our low rostered QBs. Brenton Strange and Dallas Goedert are two of my favorites of the bunch who project similarly to the others.
RB Analysis
The Bucket One RBs, James Cook and De'Von Achane, have fantastic roles but difficult matchups. Achane still is optimal over 16 percent of the time but Cook comes in just under 10 percent. I think both are still strong plays but RB has a lot of quality options. There are nine RBs being taken in the first three buckets. Eight of those players are optimal over 9.5 percent of the time and the only one who is not is Rhamondre Stevenson. He is barely optimal but with TreVeyon Henderson possibly missing this one, that projection is missing some nuance.
Bucket | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
ONE | 1 | 26.89% |
TWO | 1 | 53.99% |
TWO | 2 | 5.30% |
THREE | 1 | 24.49% |
THREE | 2 | 0.92% |
FOUR | 1 | 46.24% |
FOUR | 2 | 7.03% |
Four out of the five players in Bucket Two are RBs so it makes sense that teams tend to have one in this group on their roster. Bucket Four still produces a willing RB a little over half the time, but I think its definitely muted compared to usual and if we do get Henderson as out, that will cause that number to fall. The one Bucket Four RB the sims like this week is Jaylen Warren who is coming off a monster game but the Steelers will need to run the ball a lot in this one with their WR room decimated.
WR Analysis
Jaxon Smith-Njigba stands out as a great play this slate with an optimal rater of over 20 percent. This obviously justifies his standing as the usual 1.01. JSN and Ja'Marr Chase help to push up the Bucket One optimal rates but Bucket Three really stands out as a great place to draft WRs.
Bucket | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
ONE | 1 | 32.77% |
TWO | 1 | 14.61% |
THREE | 1 | 62.46% |
THREE | 2 | 6.83% |
THREE | 3 | 0.03% |
FOUR | 1 | 62.09% |
FOUR | 2 | 16.33% |
FOUR | 3 | 0.42% |
Among the seven Bucket Three WRs, only Jakobi Meyers has an optimal rate below seven percent. This may even be a bit flawed as Meyers has looked fantastic since joining the Jaguars and the projections may still be slow to catch up. Bucket Four also contains some awesome WR plays with three guys coming in at over 10 percent optimal. Wan'Dale Robinson is my favorite of the bunch but guys like DeVonta Smith also project decently well and offer leverage on some guys going earlier in drafts.
This is a fascinating week as I think there's reason to believe the winner will have one of the top WRs or McBride as opposed to the early RBs and whoever in Buckets Two and Three can meaningfully separate will be the guy you need. Overall, while there are some interesting options, I think there will be one clear had to have it guy. Usually, I like to skip over some of the players in the middle rounds, but I do not think that is a good strategy this week.
Interested in other DFS contests? Check out RotoWire's DFS Lineup Optimizer.
