What Happens When Players Miss NFL Mandatory Minicamps?

The offseason is a period of finding edges, making it crucial to distinguish between the noise and what matters. With NFL mandatory minicamps having wrapped, and notable players still holding out, RotoWire's NFL analysis decided to dig into the data and determine how impactful absences from minicamp have historically been. Notable players missing from mandatory minicamp this year are:

• Terry McLaurin, WR
• Jonnu Smith, TE
• Trey Hendrickson, DE
• T.J. Watt, OLB
• Jalen Ramsey, CB
• Shemar Stewart

Using the past five seasons as a sample size (excluding 2020, when standard minicamps were not held due to COVID-19), we've honed in the tangible repercussions of minicamp holdouts. The data from this range includes a total of 25 players. Below are our findings, listing if they were able to get a new deal with the same team, if they parted ways with the current team, stayed with the team without getting a new contract or deal, or stayed with their team for one final season then left.

In more detail: 

* Chris Jones (2023) and Xavien Howard (2021) technically restructured their deals. Tee Higgins played out 2024 without a new deal but then parlayed a productive season into a long-term contract in 2025. 

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Impact of NFL Minicamp Holdouts on Player Contracts and Team Dynamics

With 56 percent of minicamp holdouts having departed for new surroundings within a year or less, it's clear that minicamp holdouts should be interpreted as representing a significant rift between players and their current clubs. 

It's telling, though, that those the list of players who received a new contract is almost entirely filled with superstars: CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Jones, DK Metcalf, Xavien Howard, and even Tee Higgins can be thrown in as players whose availability was absolutely instrumental to their team functioning.  Evan Engram is the exception to star-factor, but he was a key pass-catcher for the Jags in 2023. 

Meanwhile, the list of departures doesn't include many unambiguously elite options. Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs were both fighting uphill against the franchise tag and rebuilding teams who devalued the RB position. Danielle Hunter and Darius Slay were cornerstone defensive players at the time, admittedly, but both carried situational contexts that influenced their teams to move on.

Analyzing NFL Minicamp Absences: Data Insights and Predictions

Terry McLaurin is the holdout whose outcome matters the most for fantasy. The bright news is that his situation is most comparable to CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf and himself in 2022. Each of those situations resulted in new long-term deals. The two-time Pro Bowler was instrumental in Jayden Daniels' breakout rookie season, and the trade acquisition of Deebo Samuel doesn't significantly threaten the areas of the field McLaurin is most relied upon. He's been the leader of Washington's passing game since entering the league as a third-round pick in 2019, and has five straight 1,000-yard seasons to his name despite not having seen competent QB play in a single year until Daniels' arrival. His departure would be such a blow to Kliff Kingsbury's offense that the Commanders can't consider anything other than negotiating a new contract. 

Jonnu Smith is the truest wildcard. The two TEs in our dataset both held out of minicamp in 2023, but Smith's isn't comparable to the age-35 version of Jimmy Graham in question. His situation is more similar to Evan Engram, who held out of minicamp after being franchise tagged in 2023 and ultimately inked a three-year, $42.5 million deal with the Jags. Engram then enjoyed a career-best year before declining in 2024, then getting cut. Smith is already coming off a career year, but that can be partially due to Tua Tagovailoa's injuries in 2024 forcing Mike McDaniel to abandon his usual offensive philosophy of focusing on downfield attacks to Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle, instead prioritizing short-area targets to TEs and RBs. That shift fed both Smith and De'Veon Achane, but McDaniel could want to return to a funnel through Hill and Waddle in 2024. Smith is clearly worth more than the $4.6 million cap hit he's owed entering the final season of his two-year deal but doesn't boast the production history to demand a massive deal, so Miami's hesitancy to extend him to even something team-friendly hints at a plan that won't feature TEs in the passing game. Even so, this team can't justify moving forward with just Julian Hill, Pharaoh Brown, Tanner Conner and Hayden Rucci at tight end. 

Trey Hendrickson seems like a real candidate to be on the move. The Bengals invested a first-round pick into drafting his replacement and are more invested into keeping Joe Burrow happy with his weapons on offense, having invested into long-term deals for all of Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Mike Gesicki. Hendrickson has already stated that he won't play without a new deal, and despite his back-to-back 17.5-sack seasons, Cincinnati doesn't appear willing to pay him like one of the league's top edge rushers. The situation could get uglier as training camp nears, but teams around the league should be willing to pay up for Hendrickson's production, which at least means an outcome as disastrous as Hassan Reddick's holdout in 2024 should be avoidable. 

As T.J. Watt heads into his age-31 season, he has little choice but to play every card he has and attempt to parlay his way into one last top-tier multi-year deal. As things stand, he's heading into the final year of his contract. Watt is one of the few non-QBs in the league with enough leverage that he could consider a training camp holdout, and after having suited up for all 17 regular-season games in back-to-back years, Pittsburgh can't justify leaning on 'injury concerns' as an excuse to avoid negotiations. Both sides seem united in principle on wanting a long-term deal, though, and coach Mike Tomlin indicated at the start of mandatory minicamp that he has no concerns about Watt's long-term future with the team. 

Of the current holdouts, Jalen Ramsey stands out as anomalous. It's seemed like a foregone conclusion for months that Ramsey will be traded, with both sides having expressed a desire to part ways. Coach Mike McDaniel was blunt in shutting down Ramsey-related questions at minicamp, per Camden Markel of the New York Post. Despite being just one season removed from inking a three year, $72 million extension with Miami, bad blood has clearly manifested beneath the surface, and the Dolphins seem to simply be having difficulty finding a trade partner willing to eat enough of a portion of the 30-year-old Pro Bowler's salary. It also recently looked like Tyreek Hill (wrist) was destined to be on the move before both sides reconciled, though, so it's not unimaginable that Miami figures out a way to keep Ramsey in house 

Shemar Stewart was initially in attendance at minicamp, albeit not practicing, but he departed the last day early due to an ongoing dispute over his yet-unsigned rookie contract. The first-rounder's representatives are reportedly cross about language in the contract that could impact interpretations of owed guaranteed money, per Ben Baby of ESPN. The situation is just another stain on Cincinnati's stingy ownership group, but should be resolved well before training camp. The Hendrickson situation leaves the Bengals absolutely no wiggle room to fumble things with Stewart. 

BONUS: the 'not-quite-holdouts' roundup

James Cook reported to minicamp after sitting out voluntary OTAs. He's wisely trying to parlay his 18-touchdown season into a long-term deal, rather than hit free agency after 2025. Cook's situation is most similar to Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs in 2023. 

Micah Parsons is due for a record-breaking extension, and Jerry Jones has a track record of paying his star players, whether to the Cowboys' detriment or benefit. That Parsons showed up for minicamp is a sign things a deal will get done.

Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner are both attending minicamp. Both want long-term contracts and had their fifth-year options picked up earlier this offseason. It should be an easy decision for New York to extend each of them.

Kirk Cousins clearly wants out of Atlanta, but he's reported to minicamp and has an extremely beneficial contract situation, so raising any real fuss in training camp is out of the question. It will take disaster striking elsewhere in the league for Cousins to find a new starting gig, though.

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