Weekly PGA Preview: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

TPC Craig Ranch
McKinney, TX

The PGA Tour heads to Texas for another edition of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

As we approach the month of May, it's time to look back on the first half of the golf season, yes, we're about halfway through the 2025 FedExCup season.

The story of the season has obviously been Rory McIlroy and his fulfillment of the career grand slam, not to mention how well he's played overall, but there have been other noteworthy stories as well. One of which continues this week and that's Scottie Scheffler's inability to win.

Now, this isn't going to be a deep dive into Scheffler's issues, after all, he hasn't fallen off the map, he's played pretty well this season, but "pretty well" isn't a phrase we've used to describe Scheffler's golf game since 2021. Scheffler is close, but he's been close for a couple months now and still hasn't managed to win. The question as we look ahead is, will he win once and go back to playing pretty well, or will he win and go scorched Earth, like he has in the previous couple seasons? It may not be as easy to dominate now that he's shown some vulnerability however. That and there are two guys in McIlroy and Xander Schauffele that feel like they can win any given major now.

Another storyline I'll be following are the golfers on the rebound from injuries. Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger and Xander Schauffele specifically. Schauffele hasn't had much time to recover, but I have a feeling he'll find his old form sooner than later. Berger and Spieth have already shown some good form, but will that result in a win at some point this season? I expect Berger to find the winner's circle first, but both could definitely get there yet this season.

I'm also curious to see the ascent of Ludvig Aberg. He took a major step in his career by winning a signature event earlier this year and he played well at the Masters for 71 holes, but is his major breakthrough coming this season?

Some of these questions could be answered very soon, as the next major is just a couple weeks away. Until then, we've got the Byron Nelson this week and another signature event next week, so we've got plenty to look forward to until then.

Speaking of this week, we've got four years of course history in play. It's a light field overall, but with Scheffler at the top, it's going to be interesting.

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LAST YEAR

Taylor Pendrith shot a final-round 67 on his way to a one-stroke victory of Ben Kohles. 

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (+280) 

If you've followed me for the past couple decades, you know that I'm no fan of odds on any golfer to win that are less than 10-1, but I might make an exception this week. Less than 3-1 is ridiculously low, but everything is lined-up for Scheffler this week. I take that back, Scheffler's track record here isn't great, it's just okay, but everything else is lined-up perfectly. The field is very weak and he's starving for a win. There isn't a ton of value here, but if he's anywhere close to his best self, then he should win this week. Heck, if he plays like he has this season to this point and no one else goes crazy low, he still should win.

Jordan Spieth (18-1)

As I mentioned earlier, Spieth has played pretty well this year, but to be the clear second-favorite this week gives you an idea of the strength of this field, or lack thereof. Spieth's track record in this event is pretty good, he's made the cut in 10-of-12 starts and he did finish runner-up here in 2022, but that was just one of two top-10s in his 12 starts. He also missed the cut here this past year. There is some value here, but not enough for me.

Sam Burns (30-1)

Another big drop to the next set of players. Burns has played this event three times, and while he posted a runner-up in 2021, he missed the cut in his most recent start here and finished T72 in his other start. Burns has played well in spots this year, but there hasn't been much consistency. Perhaps he jumps up here, but I doubt it.  

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THE NEXT TIER

Si Woo Kim (30-1)

When we last saw Kim playing by himself, he was crumbling in the final round of the RBC Heritage, but I don't want to focus on the final round, I want to look at how he got the 54-hole lead that week. Kim was on point for three days that week and while he failed in the final round, that doesn't take away the solid form he showed that week. Last week's missed cut is a bit of a throw away because it was a team event. Kim has also played well here with a runner-up in 2023 and a top-15 this past year.   

Taylor Pendrith (30-1)

I don't like backing the defending champ in most instances, but it's going to take an exceptional effort this week to beat Scheffler, so why not go with the guy who was lights-out here a year ago? Pendrith shot no worse than 67 in any round at this event on his way to a total of 23-under. It was also his first start at this event. Perhaps it was beginners' luck, or perhaps he really took to this course. If it's the latter, he could challenge Scheffler this week.    

Stephan Jaeger (45-1)  

I'm not going to lie, for me, everything this week is through the lens of who can beat Scheffler, so why not go with someone who has actually done it? Jaeger picked up his lone PGA Tour win about a year ago, in Texas, and he beat Scheffler in the process. Scheffler was one of five players that finished one-stroke back of Jaeger that week, so we know that Jaeger can perform under immense pressure.

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LONG SHOTS

Rasmus Hojgaard (50-1)           

Did Hojgaard unlock something in his game in New Orleans? There was a lot of steam on Hojgaard coming into this season, but up until this past week, he hadn't shown much to justify that steam, but after posting a runner-up with his brother at the Zurich, perhaps he's ready to show us what he has. Hojgaard is poised for a strong second-half to this season and there's a good chance it all starts this week.   

Tom Kim (60-1)

Kim has not played very well this season, but his best game could challenge Scheffler. Are we likely to see Kim's best game this week? No, but that's why he's listed at this price. There is a slight chance that some under the radar golfer goes nuts this week and runs past everyone, but that seems unlikely. Either Scheffler wins or one of these high upside guys taps into that upside and take him down.    

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Jordan Spieth – Your guess is as good as mine as to where the ownership will be this week, but Spieth seems like a likely landing spot for a lot of OAD players. The problem of course is that Scheffler is in his way, but that's going to be a problem for anybody you take this week. Spieth holds some value down the road, but not so much that you'd forego using him here. 

Moderately-Chosen Pick:  Si Woo Kim – Grabbing the 54-hole lead two weeks ago put Kim back on the radar of a lot of OAD players, so I'd imagine that he's going to be somewhat popular this week. It doesn't hurt that Kim has flashed some big-time upside over the years. Something that he'll need this week to overcome Scheffler.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Taylor Pendrith – I'm not the only one that shies away from defending champs, which means the Pendrith will likely be on a small number of teams this week. I'd take a look at him however as this might be a spot where Pendrith needs some familiarity to get back on track. It's not that he's been awful this season, he just hasn't taken the next step. Perhaps a return to a course that he obliterated this past year will put him back in the right spot.        

Buyer Beware: Will Zalatoris – It was nearly impossible to find someone to fit the criteria this week because not much is expected of anyone outside of Scheffler, but I think Zalatoris qualifies as someone that OAD players might think about using in this spot but shouldn't. Zalatoris just hasn't been the same since returning from his injury this past year and while he's been okay in spots, he hasn't posted a top-10 in over a year.    

My Pick: Si Woo Kim – I thought about using Byeong Hun An here, but I think he'll also be fairly popular this week, so I'm going with Kim. I like Kim for two reasons this week. First, he's only a couple weeks removed from some really good golf. Yes, he cracked in the final round at the RBC, but he played very well in the three rounds leading up to that. Second, you're going to need someone with a lot of upside to best Scheffler this week and Kim has just that. He hasn't shown it in quite a while, but it's there.    

Previous Results

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SURVIVOR LEAGUES

My Pick: Stephan Jaeger – Jaeger is not normally a guy I would use in this format, but he's played pretty well this season and his track record here is solid. Jaeger has missed just one cut in five attempts here and that came at the previous venue. Since moving to the current venue, Jaeger has landed in the top-20 in three of four starts.