Top PrizePicks NHL Time on Ice Picks & Strategy – TOI Picks Guide
Welcome to the first edition of the NHL Time on Ice (TOI) PrizePicks article.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, I've been with RotoWire for 20-plus years, primarily focused on golf and college football.
The reason I am breaking into this space is that about three years ago, PrizePicks began offering TOI as an option, and over the past three seasons, I've had a lot of success with this stat. I'm doing great on my own, but I thought, why not share what I've learned with our RotoWire subscribers, many of whom have supported my work over the past two decades.
Within this article, you'll find the best plays on the card each day. Since this is new, we're going to start by posting on the heaviest days each week, generally Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. We may expand from there, but for now, you can expect to see articles on the above-mentioned days.
Before we get to the picks, I want to provide some strategy tips that you can use on a daily basis. These tips can help on the days when we aren't posting picks. These tips are essentially my rules. Some are obvious, some aren't, but to be successful, it's best to follow them as closely as possible.
Understanding NHL Time on Ice PrizePicks Strategy and Key Metrics
Time on Ice is exactly what you think it is. The amount of time a player is on the ice. You pick more or less. As you might expect, the better players generally spend more time on ice than the lesser players, but that's not always the case. I'll get more into this in the rules section.
PrizePicks will list the lines in fractions of minutes, not seconds. In other words, if the line is 25.25, that's 25 minutes and 15 seconds, not 25 minutes and 25 seconds.
Lines will often move .25 at a time, but it's not unheard of to see .5 adjustments if a lot of action is coming in on one side. Prior to this season, there wasn't much line movement, but as this stat has become more popular, line movements are now quite common.
PrizePicks will generally offer one forward and one defenseman per team per gameday. It can be less than that, but never more. The reason for that is the heavy correlation of ice time between teammates. Forwards on the same line are generally going to go more or less at the same rate within a given game, same for defensemen on the same pair, but the correlation isn't quite as strong when you look at a forward and a defenseman on the same team. That's why you won't see two forwards or two defensemen from the same team as an option.
TOI lines will sometimes be released the night before, but often times those lines are not released until game day. Sometimes not until late morning. The reason for this is that injuries and line changes have a major effect on TOI, more so than other stats, so PrizePicks wants to be sure they have the latest info before releasing the lines. If there is a mistake, in that PrizePicks isn't aware of a piece of information, you'll see the lines adjust rapidly. In extreme cases, PrizePicks will simply pull the player projections if too much action is coming in on one side. I've had several plays over the past couple of years where I got in on a player, but an hour later, he was no longer available. Just like a wager, you are locked in whenever you make your play, so even if the player is no longer an option, your play is still live at whatever number you got.
The players you see in this category will generally remain the same throughout the year. For example, the options for Colorado are going to be Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. This is good for us because it helps us find a rhythm with these players. More on rhythm in the rules section. The exceptions to this rule are trades and injuries. For example, for Minnesota, the players for the past few years have primarily been Kirill Kaprizov and Brock Faber, but when the Wild traded for Quinn Hughes, PrizePicks swapped out Faber for Hughes immediately. Injuries will not cause this reaction initially. If it's a short-term injury, PrizePicks will simply leave that spot empty until he comes back, but if there is a season-ending injury, they'll often find a replacement.
There are no discounts or reboots for this stat currently. You won't see TOI appear as an option on Taco Tuesday (for now), and though I've been pushing for it for years, there are no reboots for skaters.
I should also note that the reason I prefer this stat over others like goals, points, etc, is that there is no performance aspect to this stat. There are no unlucky bounces, and "off nights" generally don't have much of an effect; it's simply a coach's decision on who is on the ice, and most often those coaches are fairly predictable. Also, there is no ambiguity with this stat, like there often is with Shots on Goal, Assists and saves. It simply is what it is, if the player is on the ice, he's on the ice.
Those are the basics for TOI. Now, let's get into the fun part – Strategy.
Rules for TOI Picks: Injury Updates, Line Changes, Flow Defense Versus Offense
These are the rules I live by. I'm going to number them so you can see which ones are most important. Starting with the most important rules at the top:
Stay up to date on line changes and injuries. Not only for the players listed on PrizePicks, but the players around them as well. A forward coming back from injury that plays 20 minutes per game, replacing one that played 10 minutes per game, means there are 10 fewer minutes to go around. Even though the returning player is not on the same line, the effects are felt across the board. The opposite is true as well. A 20-minute per game player leaving the lineup is going to open up more time for everyone. Line changes are a huge factor as well. A forward moving from the first line to the second will likely have a large impact on their ice time. The same holds true for defensemen. Specialty units need to be factored in as well. A player moving on or off the power play or penalty kill is going to have an effect on their ice time.
Flow is real. You'll notice this as soon as you start following ice time. Often, a coach will get into a rhythm with TOI. If a defenseman was averaging 25 minutes a game for a week straight, then is suddenly at 22 minutes per game, it could be a line change, or it just might be a flow change. These are tough because we're trying to get into the mind of the coach, and we're often a bit delayed on recognizing this, but flow is a real thing, more so for some players than others, but you'll start to see that as you track time.
Defensemen are more reliable than forwards. I'll expand upon this in the next rule, but in general, forwards are dependent on the game script. If a forward's team is ahead most of the game, their ice time will generally be lower because the coach is going to put out their best defensive forwards to protect the lead. It's not always the case, but more times than not, if you go more on a forward and their team is in the lead most of the game, you're probably not going to win. The reason this is a problem is that predicting winners is tough in hockey, but trying to figure out which team will get out to the lead is even more difficult. Defensemen aren't as sensitive to game script, oftentimes when you take a defenseman more for his number, you just need a tight game to win.
Game script matters: Just like every other stat in every other sport, game script is going to play a role. If you have a more play, your worst nightmare is a blowout. Just like every other sport, coaches will give more time to the lesser players in a blowout. It's something to keep in mind when taking a move, but you can never predict a blowout, so there's not a lot you can do about this one.
Don't assume a player's status. I bring this up because sometimes a player will be a game-time decision, and you might think it's a good idea to get out ahead of it and assume that the player will be out. Try to avoid assuming a lineup status at all costs. If you assume a correlated player is going to be out, but he plays, most often your pick is already a loser. It's best just to avoid those situations. It obviously goes the other way as well; a player assumed to be in could drop at the last minute, and that is going to mess with your plays.
Differentiating Between Building Blocks Injury-Dependent & Filler Picks
Those are the rules, but there is one more piece to this, and that's the type of pick. I like to break them into four categories, which you'll see below. I'll also be using these terms when making my picks, so get used to them.
Building blocks: these are your top plays. I call them building blocks because if you are putting together several 2,3 or 4 picks, these are plays that should be in nearly all of them. Not all of them mind you, never put all your eggs in one basket, but something around 66% or 75% is reasonable for these plays. These picks are great because they are mostly impervious to game script. I say mostly, because a blowout can ruin any pick, but there are cases where a pick is so good, you just need the game to stay within a couple of goals, it doesn't matter who is ahead. Defensemen make up 95% of the building blocks. Forwards can be building blocks as well, but that generally requires an injury or a line change.
Injury/line-up dependent: These are exactly what they sound like. Essentially, they are building blocks, but they are dependent on an injury status or a line change. Since we don't always have that information well ahead of time, these plays are not as good as building blocks, but once we get confirmation of the injury or line change, then they are almost as good as a building block pick. I say "almost" because even though we think we know how an injury or lineup change will affect TOI, we can't be certain until it actually happens. I should also mention that when I refer to "injuries," I'm referring to injuries to players that could affect the players you pick, not injuries to the players you are picking.
Fillers: The lowest acceptable level. I would advise against having more than one filler in any lineup, with one exception below. Fillers are those that look like good plays if everything goes right. Forwards are often fillers because they are script dependent, but if you feel a game is going to go a certain way, then it is okay to use these players. A good example would be a forward on a heavy favorite. If the game plays out as scripted, then that forward is likely going to see less TOI. The opposite is true as well.
Correlated picks: This is a spin-off on the fillers. If you are using a filler, it is acceptable to use a correlated filler. For example, if you have a forward and a defenseman on the same team that are script-dependent, then you could use them together, knowing that if one hits, the other is likely to hit as well. Your odds will be lower, but you're essentially getting a two-for-one anyway.
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Note: Time on Ice projections and picks can change frequently throughout the day due to injuries and changes to line combinations, especially power-play lines. I encourage readers to check the comments section below for any last-minute updates prior to puck drop.
