This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
Top UFC 315 Betting Picks and Odds Guide
The UFC returns to Montreal, Quebec, Canada on Saturday, May 10 for a solid UFC 315 pay-per-view card that sees two titles on the line. In the main event, Belal Muhammad defends his welterweight title against Jack Della Maddalena.
Below, I'll share my UFC 315 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Welterweight
Belal Muhammad (24-3) vs Jack Della Maddalena (17-2)
Belal Muhammad is looking for his first defense of his welterweight title, and I'm surprised he's not a huge favorite here, as I love him at under -200.
Muhammad is a well-rounded fighter who has insane cardio and uses it to his advantage. Although Della Maddalena is a great striker, Muhammad should have a big advantage with his wrestling.
Della Maddalena gave up seven takedowns on 11 attempts against Gilbert Burns in his last fight, which should give Muhammad confidence. Muhammad is also known for a great chin, as he will be able to take the Aussie's best shots and likely cruise to a decision win by using his wrestling, cardio and volume.
UFC 315 Bet: Belal Muhammad (-192)
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Weight Class: Women's flyweight
Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1) vs Manon Fiorot (12-1)
For my underdog bet at UFC 315, I'm taking Valentina Shevchenko to defend her belt and remain the flyweight champion.
Shevchenko is one of the greatest fighters ever, and although she is 37, Fiorot is 35, so there isn't as much of an age difference as some may think. Shevchenko also looked as good as she ever has in her last time out, dominating Alexa Grasso by using her wrestling.
Although Fiorot was able to defend Erin Blanchfield's takedowns, Shevchenko is a better wrestler. I expect Shevchenko to use her wrestling to be able to edge out a decision win here.
UFC 315 Bet: Valentina Shevchenko (+120)
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Weight Class: Featherweight
Daniel Santos (11-2) vs Jeong Yeong Lee (11-2)
For my prop at UFC 315, I'm taking the under 2.5 rounds between Daniel Santos and Jeong Yeong Lee.
Santos took this fight on about a week's notice, so his cardio will be in question, which will likely force him to be aggressive early as he looks for the stoppage. Lee, meanwhile, is coming off a 65-second knockout loss in his last fight, as he was rocked several times before going out.
Although that fight was in July, Santos does have power, as his first win in the UFC was a knockout victory over John Castaneda, who is very durable. Santos should start strong and get a knockout in the first round, but even if he doesn't, there's a good chance he gasses and Lee finishes him in the second.
Regardless, the under 2.5 rounds is the way to go in this fight.
UFC 315 Bet: Daniel Santos-Jeong Yeong Lee under 2.5 rounds (-130)
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Weight Class: Light heavyweight & Bantamweight
Navajo Stirling (6-0) vs Ivan Erslan (14-4)
Jose Aldo (32-9) vs Aiemann Zahabi (12-2)
For my parlay at UFC 315, I'm taking Navajo Stirling and Jose Aldo to get their hands raised.
Stirling is 6-0 as a pro and coming off a lackluster UFC debut win, but he now takes on Erslan, who's 0-1 in the UFC. Stirling is a great kickboxer, as he comes from City Kickboxing -- the gym that Israel Adesanya trains at. Stirling is a smart, technical striker, and he should be able to use his jab to land the better shots and more volume to win a decision.
To close out the parlay, I'm backing Aldo to upset the home crowd by beating their hometown fighter in Zahabi. Zahabi has looked good of late, but Aldo is a big step up in competition. The Brazilian is a good striker and should be able to avoid being pushed up against the fence and land the more damaging shots to win a decision here.
UFC 315 Bet: Navajo Stirling & Jose Aldo parlay (-104)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 315 card.
- Belal Muhammad (-192)
- Valentina Shevchenko (+120)
- Daniel Santos-Jeong Yeong Lee under 2.5 rounds (-130)
- Navajo Stirling & Jose Aldo parlay (-104)
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