Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Vegas 112
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 112 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2 ~ Dog Picks 53-43-2
Drake's Bets of the Week: Allen Frye +150
Bet of the Week Record: 23-17-2 +1768
DFS Lock of the Week: Steven Asplund - 31-7
Fanduel Captain: Asplund/Oleksiejczuk
Brandon Royval (17-8-0) v. Manel Kape (21-7-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17-8 (4 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Pure chaos: blazing pace, wild scrambles, constant pressure, and nonstop offense
- Extremely dangerous everywhere but hittable and can be punished by more efficient strikers
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 21-7 (13 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Explosive counterstriker with elite speed, sharp timing, and serious knockout power
- Much more controlled lately: picks his shots beautifully and rarely wastes energy
DFS Perspective: This is a high-ceiling fight for DFS on both sides, but Kape is the preferred play. Royval's pace and constant aggression create openings, and Kape is one of the best in the division at capitalizing with precision counters. Royval still brings excellent GPP upside through scrambles and submission attempts, but Kape's speed, accuracy, and ability to hurt Royval in exchanges make him the more reliable DFS option. Expect a fast-paced, chaotic fight in which Kape's power moments stand out.
UFC Vegas 112 Pick: Kape
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Giga Chikadze (15-5-0) v. Kevin Vallejos (16-1-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-5 (9 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 5 decisions)
- Dangerous kickboxer with elite body-kicking game and sharp counters
- Still powerful and skilled, but becoming more stationary and easier to pressure as he ages
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 16-1 (11 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Young, hungry, and improving rapidly with every fight; brings pace, movement, and adaptability
- Willing to mix striking and grappling, and far more durable and energetic over three rounds
DFS Perspective: Vallejos is the preferred DFS play. His pace, youth, and ability to pressure could cause real problems for Giga, who struggles when forced onto the back foot. Vallejos' output and potential grappling mix-ins give him multiple scoring avenues, while Giga's path is more limited to clean moments at range. Expect Vallejos to push the tempo, stay in Giga's face, and turn this into the kind of fight where his cardio and activity shine.
UFC Vegas 112 Pick: Vallejos
Cesar Almeida (7-1-0) v. Cezary Oleksiejczuk (16-3-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-1 (5 KO/TKO, 2 decisions)
- High-level kickboxer with clean technique, strong leg kicks, and sharp distance management
- Dangerous in a pure striking match, but still developing his defensive wrestling and grappling awareness
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 16-3 98 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 5 decisions)
- Well-rounded pressure fighter with dangerous boxing combinations and strong body work
- More experienced MMA athlete with better grappling, better durability, and a style that disrupts pure strikers
DFS Perspective: Oleksiejczuk is the preferred DFS play. His pressure, power, and ability to mix in grappling exchanges give him multiple paths to win, and he thrives against fighters who rely solely on clean, technical kickboxing. Almeida's striking is sharp, but Oleksiejczuk's pace and physicality should break his rhythm and force him into uncomfortable spots. Expect Cezary to close the distance, land meaningful shots, and potentially score a late finish or dominant decision.
UFC Vegas 112 Pick: Oleksiejczuk
Morgan Charriere (21-11-1) v. Melquizael Costa (24-7-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21-11-1 (13 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Technical, patient striker with strong shot selection and good defensive awareness
- Excellent at maintaining range and picking opponents apart, but can be slowed by high pace and pressure
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 24-7 (7 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 9 decisions)
- High-volume, well-rounded fighter with sharp combinations, solid wrestling, and strong forward pressure
- Thrives in chaotic exchanges and tends to break opponents with activity and cardio as the fight wears on
DFS Perspective: Costa is the preferred DFS play. His pace, willingness to pressure, and ability to mix striking and grappling give him more scoring avenues, especially over three rounds. Charriere's timing and countering make him dangerous in moments, but his lower output limits DFS ceiling unless he scores a finish. Expect Costa to push the tempo, win the exchanges with volume, and take over late for a strong DFS score.
UFC Vegas 112 Pick: Costa
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Kennedy Nzechukwu (14-6-0) v. Marcus Buchecha (5-2-0)
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 83" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14-6 (10 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Huge frame with one of the longest reaches in the division; excellent straight shots and devastating knees
- Hard to get to the ground due to size, balance, and underrated defensive grappling when he's prepared for a takedown-heavy opponent
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5-2 (1 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- World-class BJJ practitioner with elite submissions and dominant top control
- Still extremely raw in MMA striking and wrestling entries — needs clean setups to get fights to the mat
DFS Perspective: Nzechukwu becomes the preferred DFS play. His size, reach, and improved takedown defense make this a very difficult matchup for Buchecha, who has yet to prove he can secure takedowns against elite, massive, physically strong athletes. If Buchecha can't get this to the floor, he'll be stuck at striking range eating long jabs, kicks, and punishing knees. Nzechukwu's volume and finishing potential on the feet give him both a high floor and ceiling. Expect him to keep it standing and take over with striking for the win.
UFC Vegas 112 Pick: Nzechukwu
King Green (32-17-1) v. Lance Gibson Jr. (9-1-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 32-17-1 (11 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 12 decisions)
- Fast, athletic mover with sharp counters, slick scrambling ability, and good fight IQ
- Mixes striking and grappling seamlessly; can weaponize pace if he gets comfortable early
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-1 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submission, 2 decisions)
- Smooth, technical prospect with clean footwork, disciplined striking, and strong range management
- Good defensively and rarely makes big mistakes, but can be backed up and forced into reactive exchanges
DFS Perspective: Green is the preferred DFS play. His pace, scrambling ability, and willingness to pressure creates multiple scoring paths, and he has a knack for forcing opponents into uncomfortable situations. Gibson is talented but can be too measured, which may allow Green to win minutes, create wrestling exchanges, or land the more dynamic shots. Expect Green to push the tempo, disrupt Gibson's rhythm, and offer strong DFS upside through activity and potential grappling success.
UFC Vegas 112 Pick: Green
Amanda Lemos (15-5-1) v. Gillian Robertson (16-8-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15-5-1 (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Explosive striker with serious knockout power and strong early finishing instincts
- Dangerous in open space, but still vulnerable defensively once opponents get inside and initiate grappling sequences
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-8 (3 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Elite submission threat with relentless top pressure and one of the best grappling arsenals in the division
- Excellent in extended grappling sequences, capitalizing the moment a fight hits the canvas
DFS Perspective: Robertson is the preferred DFS play. Her path is crystal clear: get this to the ground and exploit Lemos' long-standing grappling concerns. If Robertson finds a takedown or even a scramble, she can dominate with control time, transitions, and submission attempts. Lemos carries big KO danger early, but Robertson's style offers the higher DFS ceiling and more consistent scoring potential if she imposes her grappling. Expect Robertson to drag this into her world and look for a finish.
UFC Vegas 112 Pick: Robertson
Joanderson Brito (17-5-1) v. Isaac Thomson (9-2-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-5-1 (7 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Explosive, aggressive pressure fighter with powerful wrestling and relentless finishing instincts
- Thrives when he forces opponents backward, mixes takedowns and overhand bombs seamlessly
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-2 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 4 decision)
- Solid prospect with athleticism and some power, but still raw defensively
- Making his UFC debut against a massive step up in competition; hasn't faced Brito's level of pressure or physicality
DFS Perspective: Brito is the preferred DFS play and one of the safest options on the slate. His pace, wrestling, and finishing ability should overwhelm Thomson, who is talented but not ready for this level. Brito's ability to rack up takedowns, control time, and explode with fight-ending sequences gives him an elite DFS ceiling. Expect Brito to roll through this matchup with pressure and power.
UFC Vegas 112 Pick: Brito
Neil Magny (31-13-0) v. Yaroslav Amosov (28-1-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 31-13 (9 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 17 decisions)
- Long, intelligent striker who uses his jab, length, and clinch control to slow opponents down
- Durable and experienced, but increasingly struggling against strong wrestlers and physically dominant opponents
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 28-1 (9 KO/TKO, 11 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Suffocating pressure
- Extremely well-rounded with improving striking, but his bread and butter is drowning opponents with control and pace
DFS Perspective: Amosov is the preferred DFS play without question. His nonstop wrestling, top pressure, and ability to hold opponents down for long stretches give him a massive scoring ceiling. Magny's length and veteran savvy make him tough to finish, but he historically struggles against physical wrestlers who can collapse his base and neutralize his clinch. Expect Amosov to rack up takedowns, control time, and secure a dominant DFS-friendly performance.
UFC Vegas 112 Pick: Amosov
Sean Sharaf (4-1-0) v. Steven Asplund (6-1-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 4-1 (4 KO/TKO)
- Clean striker with good balance and quick combinations
- Dangerous when he dictates range, but still untested against heavy pressure and physical opponents
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-1 (5 KO/TKO, 1 decision)
- Aggressive, powerful fighter who pushes the pace early and keeps the fight uncomfortable
- Strong clinch game, heavy hands, and a willingness to brawl that can break more technical fighters
DFS Perspective: Asplund is the preferred DFS play. His pressure, physicality, and finishing upside make him extremely live, especially if he forces Sharaf off his rhythm early. Sharaf's technical striking gives him moments, but Asplund's forward grind and power create the kind of DFS scoring paths that matter. Expect Asplund to bully his way forward, turn this into his fight, and deliver strong DFS value as the side with higher aggression and grit.
UFC Vegas 112 Pick: Asplund
Luana Santos (9-2-0) v. Melissa Croden (7-2-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-2 (1 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Well-rounded rising prospect with sharp boxing, strong clinch work, and improving defensive grappling
- Good pace and solid fundamentals; excels when she's the one dictating range and tempo
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-2 (2 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decisions)
- Long, rangy striker who uses kicks and reach well but is still developing her overall MMA awareness
- Can be pressured and backed up easily; struggles when opponents close distance and force exchanges inside her frame
DFS Perspective: Santos is the preferred DFS play. Her speed, fundamentals, and ability to get inside Croden's reach should allow her to win exchanges cleanly and potentially rack up significant control time. Croden's length gives her some GPP dart value, but Santos' pace and technical edge make her much more reliable. Expect Santos to land the sharper shots, dictate the fight, and score well through activity and pressure.
UFC Vegas 112 Pick: Santos
Allen Frye (6-0-0) v. Guilherme Pat (5-0-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: – N/A Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-0 (6 KO/TKO)
- Surprisingly technical for a debuting heavyweight, clean boxing, good shot selection, and underrated composure
- Doesn't rush exchanges; picks counters well and carries real power without being reckless
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5-0 (4 KO/TKO, 1 decision)
- Wild, aggressive finisher with big power and explosiveness early
- Leaves major defensive openings and can be hit clean when he blitzes or overextends
DFS Perspective: Frye is the preferred DFS play as a live dog. His cleaner technique and ability to stay composed in brawls give him the better finishing path if this becomes a firefight. Pat has raw knockout upside, but Frye's ability to counter and maintain structure makes him the smarter DFS side, especially with debuting heavyweights where volatility is sky-high. Expect Frye to weather the early burst, find openings, and capitalize with a knockout.
UFC Vegas 112 Pick: Frye
Tereza Bleda (7-1-0) v. Jamey-Lyn Horth (8-2-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-1 (2 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Big, physically imposing flyweight with a smothering wrestling style
- Excellent top pressure and control; once she gets her hands locked, she chains takedowns well and dominates from guard or half
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-2 (3 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 3 decisions)
- Aggressive striker with solid athleticism and good movement
- Can compete in open space but tends to get stuck against stronger grapplers who push pace and clinch consistently
DFS Perspective: Bleda is the preferred DFS play. Her wrestling and size advantages give her the clearest scoring path, utilizing repeated takedowns, prolonged control time, and potential ground-and-pound opportunities. Horth's success depends on keeping range, but Bleda's physicality should collapse that space quickly. Expect Bleda to dictate the fight, rack up control metrics, and deliver strong DFS value.
UFC Vegas 112 Pick: Bleda
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
