New Hampshire 301
Location: Loudon, N.H.
Course: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Format: 1-mile oval
Laps: 301
Race Preview
Kentucky Speedway again hosted a showdown between Joe Gibbs Racing and Penske Racing. The two teams have been the dominant force at the front of the field in each of the last two events, plus have the most successful recent records at this week's venue. New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a short, one-mile oval with shallow banking and long straights. Joe Gibbs drivers have won five of the last seven races there, but Penske swept the 2014 events. The momentum each team carries into this week's race makes them early favorites for the win on Sunday, but this short, difficult track could easily spring a surprise winner.
Key Stats at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
• Number of previous races: 42
• Winners from pole: 5
• Winners from top-5 starters: 12
• Winners from top-10 starters: 23
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 9
• Fastest race: 117.134 mph
Last 10 New Hampshire Winners
2015 fall - Matt Kenseth
2015 spring - Kyle Busch
2014 fall - Joey Logano
2014 spring - Brad Keselowski
2013 fall - Matt Kenseth
2013 spring - Brian Vickers
2012 fall - Denny Hamlin
2012 spring - Kasey Kahne
2011 fall - Tony Stewart
2011 spring - Ryan Newman
Being a one-mile oval with shallow banking makes New Hampshire a difficult track on which to pass. Work done in the pits will help to earn track position and thereby create most of the opportunities to move forward. The short race distance also rewards teams who remain mistake-free throughout the afternoon. Any team that encounters trouble will have fewer chances to recover in a 300-mile event, and passing coming at a premium will only ratchet up the pressure on pit crews. Brakes will be tested as the best opportunities to make moves on track will be to out-brake competition into the turns, but launch on corner exits will help set up those moves. New Hampshire is a challenging and short race where track position and inch-perfect execution will be the difference between a great day and a disaster.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kevin Harvick - $10,700
Kyle Busch - $10,500
Brad Keselowski - $10,300
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Joey Logano - $9,900
Denny Hamlin - $9,500
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,300
Matt Kenseth - $9,100
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - $8,700
Kyle Larson - $8,500
Austin Dillon - $8,300
Tony Stewart - $8,100
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Kasey Kahne - $7,900
Ryan Newman - $7,700
Ryan Blaney - $7,500
Jamie McMurray - $7,300
A.J. Allmendinger - $7,100
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Busch - $10,500
Joey Logano - $9,900
Denny Hamlin - $9,500
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,300
Michael McDowell - $5,500
Regan Smith - $5,300
The lower-risk lineup option for New Hampshire spreads salary dollars across a number of drivers with clear chances to win versus just going all in for the likely favorite. Kyle Busch has been quite strong recently despite not visiting Victory Lane. He has two top-10s in the last three races along with the win in this race last season. Logano hasn't enjoyed the luck of his teammate but did have a run of top-10s going for him that dated back to the All-Star race before he crashed in Kentucky. Hamlin is a two-time New Hampshire winner with a runner-up result in the fall race last season where he led 21 laps. Were it not for a conservative call last week in Kentucky Truex may have added another win to his season. He hasn't finished lower than 12th at this track in the last five races. McDowell returns after scoring a top-10 in Daytona earlier this month, and Smith has one top-10 from his last three New Hampshire races.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kevin Harvick - $10,700
Brad Keselowski - $10,300
Matt Kenseth - $9,100
A.J. Allmendinger - $7,100
Greg Biffle - $6,600
Casey Mears - $6,100
Kevin Harvick is arguably the obvious choice this week, but choosing him puts most of your eggs into a single basket. He was strong last week in Kentucky and led 216 laps in the last New Hampshire race. His lone win at the track came when he started from pole in 2006. Next up is Keselowski who comes to New Hampshire with consecutive wins in his pocket. He won at New Hampshire in 2014 and qualified on pole on three separate occasions. Also gaining momentum again is Kenseth. He's the most recent New Hampshire victor and only finished outside of the top 10 there once in the last six races. Allmendinger had a rough outing last week, but should bounce back with a top-15 run this week. He has a pair of 13th-place finishes at the track along with three top-20s in his last four New Hampshire races. With back to back top-10s it might be wise to give Biffle a nod this week. He has a New Hampshire win from 2008 and finished fourth here last fall while leading 12 laps. While Mears also had a difficult time in Kentucky, this week should see a return to top-20 performances. He finished 16th and 18th in the two races here last season.
