Citizen Soldier 400
Location: Dover, Del.
Course: Dover International Speedway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 400
Race Preview
Kevin Harvick became the second driver to guarantee a spot in the final 12 drivers still battling for the championship by winning at New Hampshire last week. Dover International Speedway now provides the NASCAR Sprint Cup teams their second consecutive 1.0-mile oval race to close out the round of 16. Jimmie Johnson has been the king of Dover in recent seasons, but the long-running slump has eaten into his abilities at the track as well. Despite 10 track victories, he hasn't finished in the top 20 in the last two races there. All other drivers still alive in the Chase will working to ensure the former champion's slump continues, as they advance themselves in the knockout format. Chris Buescher, Tony Stewart, Austin Dillon and Jamie McMurray currently sit inside the elimination zone in the standings, and all but Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick will be feeling the pressure in the final race of the first elimination stage. Matt Kenseth won at Dover earlier this year and showed plenty of strength last week in New Hampshire as well.
Key Stats at Dover International Speedway
• Number of previous races: 93
• Winners from pole: 13
• Winners from top-5 starters: 53
• Winners from top-10 starters: 72
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 5
• Fastest race: 132.719 mph
Last 10 Dover Winners
2016 spring - Matt Kenseth
2015 fall - Kevin Harvick
2015 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2014 fall - Jeff Gordon
2014 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2013 fall - Jimmie Johnson
2013 spring - Tony Stewart
2012 fall - Brad Keselowski
2012 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2011 fall - Kurt Busch
Dover International Speedway is a somewhat unique 1.0-mile oval on the Sprint Cup calendar. Its concrete surface and steep banking makes for a fast race with the chances of big crashes. The favored line, unlike at New Hampshire, will be the bottom of the turns where any tire failure means a long trip to the outside wall. The nature of the course is punishing on both driver and equipment. Races at the track are generally competitive with multiple cars spending time in the lead, but track position and fresh tires will remain important to finishing on top. We saw fresh tires and restarts make the difference on last week's 1.0-mile oval, and Dover will likely provide similar opportunities for teams to move forward. However, fantasy players should expect more passing throughout Sunday's 400-lap race.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kevin Harvick - $10,900
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,500
Kyle Busch - $10,300
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Kyle Larson - $9,900
Matt Kenseth - $9,700
Brad Keselowski - $9,100
Chase Elliott - $8,900
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Austin Dillon - $7,900
Jamie McMurray - $7,800
Kasey Kahne - $7,600
Ryan Newman - $7,300
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $6,700
Danica Patrick - $6,100
Ty Dillon - $5,900
Regan Smith - $5,300
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,500
Kyle Larson - $9,900
Matt Kenseth - $9,700
Joey Logano - $9,400
David Ragan - $5,500
Michael Annett - $4,900
By virtue of nearly winning both races in the first round of Chase eliminations, Truex warrants the leadoff slot in the lower-risk lineup for Dover. He's been good throughout his career at Dover as well, capturing one win and not finishing lower than 15th there for the last six races. Larson is still very much in the hunt to keep his Chase hopes alive, and Dover is a place he can get through with a win. In five career starts, he has a worst finish of 11th and a best of second. The defending winner, Kenseth, nearly had last week's win in the bag, but wasn't able to come out on top. He is fifth in the Chase standings with three top-10s in the last five races. The sixth-spot in the Chase currently belongs to Logano. He had a rough outing at Dover earlier this season but had a streak of eight finishes at the track of 11th or better before that stumble. While Ragan has never scored a top-10 finish at Dover, he started 27th there this season and finished 17th. That's impressive for this underfunded team, and makes Ragan a lower-priced driver worth playing again this week. Joining Ragan on the value side of the equation could also be Annett. The driver has finished better than his start in four of the last five races and only missed achieving that earlier this season at this track due to a crash.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kevin Harvick - $10,900
Jimmie Johnson - $9,300
Brad Keselowski - $9,100
Clint Bowyer - $7,100
Chris Buescher - $6,400
Paul menard - $6,200
Aside from Harvick and Keselowski, the higher-risk lineup option for Dover has plenty of risks with arguably more upside than the lower-risk lineup. Harvick and Keselowski have both been contenders at just about every race this season, and there's no reason to expect that to be any different this week. The first risk goes with Johnson. Johnson has been dominant at Dover in recent seasons, but is still in a rough patch and stumbled terribly in the last two Dover races. However, if he gets things right he could streak away with the win on Sunday. We all know Bowyer's struggles this season as well, but he finished 12th here earlier this year in one of his best races in 2016. Buescher has extra incentive to have a top afternoon this week or he'll be eliminated from the Chase. A good day isn't out of the realm of expectation for him either. He finished 18th at the track in the spring. Finally, another driver in the midst of a disappointing season is Menard. The veteran driver only has two top-10s so far this season, but he narrowly missed a third one here earlier this year when he finished 11th.
