Ford EcoBoost 400
Location: Homestead, Fla.
Course: Homestead-Miami Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile oval
Laps: 267
Race Preview
The final race of the 2016 season is upon us. Four drivers will battle it out in a winner-take-all format to decide the 2016 Sprint Cup champion alongside 36 others vying to add a win to their 2016 results. Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards were joined by Joey Logano and Kyle Busch as championship contenders, and whoever has the best finish in this Sunday's Ford EcoBoost 400 will be crowned Sprint Cup champion. Logano advanced to the final win by taking advantage of late drama in Phoenix that saw title rival Matt Kenseth knocked from contention, while Busch cruised to a second-place finish to cement his position in the finale. Homestead awaits the championship contenders and the pressure to perform will never be as high on those four than it is this week.
Key Stats at Homestead-Miami Speedway
• Number of previous races: 17
• Winners from pole: 2
• Winners from top-5 starters: 10
• Winners from top-10 starters: 12
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 2
• Fastest race: 142.245 mph
Last 10 Homestead Winners
2015 - Kyle Busch
2014 - Kevin Harvick
2013 - Denny Hamlin
2012 - Jeff Gordon
2011 - Tony Stewart
2010 - Carl Edwards
2009 - Denny Hamlin
2008 - Carl Edwards
2007 - Matt Kenseth
2006 - Greg Biffle
Homestead-Miami Speedway is a familiar 1.5-mile oval. While there are no other circuits truly like it on the schedule, Sprint Cup teams do test at the circuit on a regular basis. The layout features progressive banking that has enhanced competitive racing in recent seasons, but it remains a difficult track to pass on. Horsepower and handling will enable drivers to lead significant portions of the event, while track position is often made up on pit stops and with varying strategy. The turns can be demanding on tires, and equipment failures are relatively common. Teams that push the envelope too much to coax more speed from a machine could find themselves over the line and into the wall. Such failures are detrimental to any championship hopes. Pit stops and track position, as well as restarts, likely will play a significant role in determining who visits Victory Lane and which driver is crowned the 2016 champion.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Jimmie Johnson - $10,800
Kevin Harvick - $10,700
Kyle Busch - $10,500
Joey Logano - $10,200
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Carl Edwards - $9,700
Brad Keselowski - $9,500
Chase Elliott - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Denny Hamlin - $8,600
Kurt Busch - $8,400
Austin Dillon - $7,900
Alex Bowman - $7,400
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Trevor Bayne - $6,700
Paul Menard - $6,500
Chris Buescher - $6,300
Brian Scott - $5,600
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Carl Edwards - $9,700
Matt Kenseth - $9,300
Kyle Larson - $8,800
Denny Hamlin - $8,600
Tony Stewart - $7,500
Danica Patrick - $6,100
The lower-risk lineup option for Homestead features a nice balance of top drivers with others that have been more consistent throughout their season, as well as at this week's venue. Edwards is the only Chase driver in the list, but he's the best performer among the final four throughout his Homestead career. Kenseth won this race in 2007 and enters this weekend with five top-fives from his last six Homestead races. Larson's three starts produced one top-five last season and a worst Homestead finish of 15th in his rookie year. Hamlin has been one of the top drivers all season and is a real bargain this week. With two wins at this track, it would be hard not choosing him at the current price. Teammates Stewart and Patrick round off the lower-risk roster. Both have had their ups and downs this season, but this is Stewart's last full-time race, and Patrick has only finished outside of the top 20 here once.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Busch - $10,500
Joey Logano - $10,200
Kurt Busch - $8,400
Ryan Newman - $7,800
Alex Bowman - $7,400
Brian Scott - $5,600
The final higher-risk lineup of the 2016 season swings for the fence. Both Kyle Busch and Logano come with premium price tags but both are likely to be favorites to win. Busch won here last season, and Logano arguably brings the most momentum into this weekend's championship finale. Both are top options this week. While not in the same tier as the first two, Kurt Busch has been threatening as the season has progressed. He was knocked out of the Chase last week despite scoring a fifth-place finish. He won at Homestead in 2002 and finished eighth here last season. Newman has been a reliable fantasy option this year, but he has lacked the flash of past seasons. He has two top-fives in his last five Homestead starts, however. Despite being a substitute driver, Bowman has been turning heads. Anyone not paying attention to him must do so now. He led 194 laps last week in Phoenix and finished sixth in an impressive display that should earn him opportunities next season. Last but not least is Brian Scott. Scott has just one Homestead start in the series but has consistently delivered finish differential points to fantasy owners when they need them most.
