FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview: Big Oval Racing

As we put the action under the lights of Nashville Superspeedway behind us, we look forward to this weekend when the NASCAR Cup Series will pay their first and only visit of the season to Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Historically, there have been two annual events at the Michigan oval, but a schedule shakeup a few seasons ago has trimmed the action to just one race at the high speed, two-mile track. This facility has wowed us for years with some of the fastest speeds recorded in all of NASCAR. At its height we saw a pole qualifying lap of 206.558 mph in 2014 by Jeff Gordon, and that still stands as the pole qualifying record at MIS. The speeds have gradually drifted downwards in recent seasons due to many aerodynamic and performance changes to the Cup Series car, but we still see qualifying laps in the low 190's. With this being the lone event of 2025 at Michigan International Speedway there will be a lot of unknowns about handling and aerodynamics. Other than the superspeedway ovals of Daytona and Talladega, we have not raced on a large oval this season. That due in part to the loss of Sonoma Raceway a couple seasons ago. That's going to put us at a current performance disadvantage with no recent data to review. Still, current streaks and historical data will be the backbone of our research this week.    

The oval in Michigan has similar aerodynamic and raw horsepower characteristics to Pocono Raceway, but at Michigan the drivers stay wide open the full lap where as there is a good degree of braking in the corners at Pocono. So, while Pocono is a good comp for this weekend, we'll really need to also examine last season's race at MIS. There were 16 different drivers who led at least a lap and 26 lead changes in last August's FireKeepers Casino 400. That parity and action made for a thrilling race that would be decided by a very narrow margin, due in part to a late caution and overtime finish. We'll see if we're in for the same great action this Sunday.     

We'll be looking at recent performance leading up to the FireKeepers Casino 400, as that data will be useful and it will give us an idea of who is hot coming to Michigan this week. However, short term history for Michigan International Speedway should serve us well too, probably as far back as 2019. The drivers who have performed well at MIS over the years are certainly worth some added scrutiny. The loop stats shown below cover the last 20 years or 36 races at Michigan International Speedway.

Throughout the years Michigan International Speedway was a track of parity. It seemed that any manufacturer was a contender for victory lane each time we visited the Irish Hills. However, the last few seasons have seen Michigan become a track of streaks. Ford drivers had reeled off nine-straight victories at the two-mile oval until Tyler Reddick's victory in this event one year ago broke that streak and gave Toyota their first win at Michigan since 2015. Can Toyota extend in this event and make it two in-a-row? That would start a new streak for that brand at Michigan. Chevrolet drivers haven't found victory lane in Brooklyn, Michigan since Kyle Larson's last win way back in 2017. Does the bowtie brand have what it takes to halt Toyota's success here and begin a streak of their own? All answers we will receive this Sunday afternoon at the concurrence of the FireKeepers Casino 400.

This event one year ago saw Tyler Reddick seize control from William Byron late and battle his way over the final two laps to take the victory during NASCAR overtime. The 23XI Racing star would only lead 15 laps on the day but some of the most important of the 400-mile race. It would put Toyota back in victory lane at MIS for the first time in a long while and stop Ford's stranglehold on the Michigan oval. Ford drivers have only won four of the 14 events thus far this season, but they have won three of the last five races so they are seemingly on the rise. Toyota hasn't been in victory lane since Denny Hamlin's win at Darlington all the way back in April, so they would seem to be on the backfoot coming to Michigan despite all the laps Toyota drivers led last Sunday in Nashville. Drivers like Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe and Christopher Bell will be squarely in the spotlight this weekend to see if Toyota can continue to add to their brief success at this two-mile oval. We'll outline the drivers with past history and Michigan and current streaking drivers that you need to win your fantasy racing leagues in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Larson has been a bit inconsistent of late, but the intermediate and large ovals have been his strength throughout his career. The 2021 Cup Series champion has always liked the two-mile ovals as his two-career Fontana victories and three-career Michigan wins illustrate this fact. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has led over 250-career laps at MIS and he cracks the Top-5 here at a strong 44-percent rate. Larson has three wins already this season with two of those coming on intermediate ovals. This is our first time racing on a two-mile oval this season, so this driver and team will have a bit of an advantage over most of the field.   

Ryan Blaney – With his first win of the season coming this past Sunday in Nashville, Blaney is well positioned coming to the Irish Hills this weekend. The Penske Racing star is a one-time winner at the two-mile Michigan oval. In addition to Blaney's win, he now has eight Top-10 finishes at MIS for a steady 50-percent rate. He had a lot of struggles earlier in his career at this track but has reversed them in recent seasons to crack the Top 10 in three of his last four Michigan starts. Ford drivers have enjoyed a lot of success at Michigan International Speedway in recent years, and Blaney is probably the best positioned of these to continue their success in Brooklyn, Michigan.

William Byron – Byron won the Daytona 500 earlier this season and he's flirted with victory lane a few other times (three runner-up finishes) in 2025. It's just a matter of time before the No. 24 Chevrolet team cashes in on another win this season. Byron doesn't have the best Michigan stats, but we believe this start could be different for the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet. Byron has posted a pair of runner-up finishes at MIS in his last four starts including last season's FireKeepers Casino 400. He's very capable of turning in a great performance at this two-mile Michigan oval. Some of Byron's best finishes this season have come on the intermediate and larger ovals. The Hendrick Motorsports star has a very high ceiling in this event.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is coming off a strong third-place finish at Nashville and seems to have righted a brief slump over the month of May. The veteran Toyota driver is a two-time winner at MIS (2010 and 2011) and while those victories were some time ago, he's been a career-long performer here as his additional three runner-up Michigan finishes illustrate. Hamlin is riding a seven-race Michigan Top-10 streak into this weekend's action and two of those efforts were runner-up finishes (2019 and 2020). In this event one year ago, the Joe Gibbs Racing star won the pole and piloted his No. 11 Toyota to a steady ninth-place finish. We believe he'll be better than that this Sunday afternoon.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Christopher Bell – Bell's last of his three wins this season came way back at Phoenix, but he's still been sharp registering two runner-up finishes since then. One as recent as Kansas Speedway a few weeks ago. He rides a four-race Top-10 streak into this Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400. Bell has started inside the Top 3 in his last three Michigan starts and led 32 total laps in those events. The finishes have not come just yet for him at this oval, but the performance and cars are there to put him in a good finish. We believe Bell will pick up his first-career Michigan Top 10 this weekend in this 200-lap battle in the Irish Hills.       

Joey Logano – Logano's Top 10 at Nashville this past weekend was his third in the last four events and a good sign that the No. 22 Ford team have turned the corner on their consistency struggles this season. The Penske Racing star has three-career victories at Michigan International Speedway and rank him among the active leaders at this track. Additionally, his 64-percent Top-10 rate at MIS is very strong and among the best rates in the Cup Series. With close to 600 laps led at Michigan, Logano is used to racing up front here. Given his recent reversal in performance, Logano and the No. 22 Penske Ford team could be a homerun threat in the FireKeepers Casino 400. 

Ross Chastain – The Trackhouse Racing veteran has a win and runner-up finish in his last four starts and is riding that good momentum into Brooklyn, Michigan this week. That win and runner-up came on the intermediate ovals of Fort Worth and Charlotte so that's a good indicator of potential for this weekend for the No. 1 Chevrolet team. Chastain doesn't have great career stats at Michigan International Speedway but he has led laps in his last three starts there and he's qualified well there since moving to Trackhouse Racing. Chastain earned a steady seventh-place finish in this event two seasons ago and is capable of doing that again in Sunday's 400-mile battle.

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe has been very fast of late and has captured the last two pole positions at both Charlotte and Nashville. He's netted a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last three starts as a result of that good pace. Briscoe will bring that upside into Sunday's big oval battle in the Irish Hills of Michigan. The journeyman driver has never fared well at this track in four prior Cup Series starts. However, this No. 19 Toyota that he's bringing this weekend is likely the best car he will have ever raced at Michigan International Speedway. Briscoe has grabbed Top 10's in his two prior truck and Xfinity Series starts at this oval so he has great potential for the FireKeepers Casino 400.         

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Michigan & solid upside

Chase Elliott – Elliott has been a bit inconsistent of late but he has managed a reasonable 11.4 average finish over the last five races. We're sliding him into the sleepers list this week as a result. The Hendrick Motorsports star has never won at Michigan but he has registered three runner-up finishes at the Irish Hills speedway. Elliott's 71-percent career Top-10 rate at this track is almost too dazzling to comprehend and his recent Top-10 finish at Charlotte is a good indicator heading into the FireKeepers Casino 400. Elliott's 10.5 career average finish at MIS speaks volumes of his ability at this two-mile oval. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet will be a Top-10 driver in this 400-mile battle.

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has shown some signs of turning the corner on his tough season. A Top-10 finish recently at Charlotte and good speed this past week at Nashville show this driver and team are heading in the right direction. The veteran driver has always liked these huge ovals. Keselowski has never won at MIS, but he owns three-career runner-up finishes here, and his 15 Top 10's checks in at a strong 56-percent rate. He's collected a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last two Michigan starts and has three Top 10's in his last four Michigan starts. This is a good track for Keselowski to continue building momentum and digging out of his early season hole. He is not to be underestimated at this two-mile oval.      

Kyle Busch – Busch is a one-time Michigan winner and has a reasonable 44-percent Top-10 rate at the two-mile oval in the Irish Hills. The Richard Childress Racing star stopped a two-race drought at MIS last season with a strong fourth-place finish in the FireKeepers Casino 400. He would lead 24 laps in that race and show how his skill level at this facility is still very high. Qualifying well at this track has never been a problem for Busch, as  his career 12.3 average start demonstrates. This season has been an inconsistent mess for Busch and the No. 8 team, but Top-15 finishes the last two rounds at Charlotte and Nashville indicate that this driver and team are gathering some momentum and building back towards some Top-10 efforts.    

Chris Buescher – Buescher won this event two years ago in a bit of an upset. He led a whopping 52 laps that day after starting on the second row and turned in a convincing and dominant win. While we don't expect the driver of the No. 17 Ford to revisit victory lane this weekend at MIS, Buescher should have a lot of utility in this FireKeepers Casino 400. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver raced to a sixth-place finish in this event one year ago and demonstrated what he had learned the previous season in winning. Buescher has been on the up-and-down roller coaster of late but has qualified well and shown decent speed. There's a good chance he'll challenge the Top 10 Sunday in Brooklyn, Michigan.  

Erik Jones – Coming off two Top 10's and three Top 15's in the last four events, it's clear that the No. 43 Legacy Motor Club team are heating up. Jones put their Toyota into a strong seventh-place finish this past weekend in Nashville and will ride that momentum into Michigan this week. The veteran driver has not been a career-long performer at Michigan International Speedway, but he has been strong in recent visits there. Jones has nabbed two Top-10 and four Top-20 finishes in his last four starts at the two-mile oval for a robust 13.0 average finish across the span. The wide, multi-groove racing really appeals to Jones and it shows in the results.

Ty Gibbs – Gibbs has had a trainwreck of a season, but this is the one weekend where the young driver could turn it around. Gibbs has just three Cup Series starts at Michigan International Speedway to his credit, but they've been pretty solid performances. The driver of the JGR No. 54 Toyota has 10th-, 11th- and third-place finishes in those events and he qualified well in them as well. The young driver will lean on that experience in Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400. Gibbs has qualified reasonably well in recent intermediate oval races. However, the good finishes have not followed to this point. Due to his experience at this track, we believe Gibbs has what it takes to challenge the Top 10 Sunday at Michigan International Speedway.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Cole Custer – The long, tough season continued for Custer at Nashville Superspeedway last week. Despite his best efforts he could only manage a 19th-place finish in the Cracker Barrel 400. Now 14 races into the 2025 season and the No. 41 Ford team has just one Top-15 finish for the campaign to this point. With an average finish of 24.8, Custer would like to be doing better each week. The short tracks have been the toughest struggle, but the intermediate ovals have only been marginally better. Custer has five-career Cup Series starts at Michigan International Speedway and he's yet to crack the Top 20 at this facility. With two DNF's and a 27.6 average finish, it's pretty clear that we should have no fantasy expectations of this team on Sunday afternoon.    

Alex Bowman – Bowman is coming off a tough couple of races at Charlotte and Nashville. Hopes for a Michigan rebound would seem slim given his career record at this two-mile oval. Bowman has 15-career starts at the facility in Brooklyn, Michigan and only three Top 10's to show for in those efforts (20-percent). The Hendrick Motorsports veteran's average finish a this oval stands at a disappointing 24.3. In this event one year ago the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet labored to a 27th-place finish in the FireKeepers Casino 400. That would seem to be a reasonable expectation for this weekend. Keep Bowman benched in all fantasy formats for this event.  

Austin Cindric – The wildly inconsistent season continued for Cindric at Nashville last Sunday. He'd labor the No. 2 Ford to a somewhat disappointing 18th-place finish at Nashville Superspeedway. Cindric's chances to climb out of his current Top-10 drought are slim at Michigan this Sunday. He has three-career starts at the big oval in the Irish Hills and not much success in those efforts. Cindric has just one Top-15 finish in those starts and an average finish of 25.7 across the span. In this event one year ago, this driver and team came home a disappointing 28th-place in the FireKeepers Casino 400. Cindric is a driver to keep on the bench for Michigan.

Michael McDowell – Of the full-time drivers in NASCAR's top division, McDowell is probably the shakiest performer at Michigan. His 18-career starts have netted just two Top-20 finishes and an average finish of 29.4 which is pretty woeful. McDowell doesn't qualify well at MIS, which his 26.7 average start figure attests. He's failed to finish on the lead lap in two of his last four Michigan starts. McDowell brought home a 19th-place finish in this event one year ago, and that's sadly his best career effort at Michigan International Speedway. His 21st-place finish at Nashville Superspeedway this past Sunday is a good indicator of where this driver and team are right now.