Grant Park 165 Preview: Street Course Survival

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series will make a return to the Chicago street course. The track is a 12-turn, 2.14-mile long circuit that is laid out on the streets of Chicago, Illinois. The area in use is the iconic Grant Park location in downtown Chicago which encompasses Michigan Avenue, Lake Shore Drive, the Lakefront Green park and the unmistakable Buckingham Fountain. This very recognizable part of downtown will set the backdrop for this interesting third installment of this event. The race is 75 laps, divided into three stages of 20 laps, 25 laps and 30 laps. Top speeds are limited by the highly-technical layout and 12 challenging turns, many including 90 degree arcs. The circuit is somewhat reminiscent of the street courses that both IndyCar and IMSA use in cities like Detroit, Long Beach and St. Petersburg. While those series have extensive experience racing on city streets, this will be NASCAR's third go-around at this type of event. Although much was learned in the last two events in Chicago, more lessons will be learned this Sunday afternoon.

Since this is a relatively new race, on a street circuit layout, we have very little in the way of historical stats to examine. That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage. However, we're not completely without some numbers. For much of our analysis this week, we're going to rely on the electronic loop stats from the last two Grant Park 165's. It's the best measure of success at this track although we need to bear in mind the sample size is very small. For additional analysis this week, we'll draw from the recent races at Mexico City and Circuit of the Americas which have been the only two road racing events to this point in the season. Outlined below is the loop data for the last two Chicago Street Course races, sorted by driver rating.

This weekend we will add to NASCAR's growing history on the Chicago Street Course. The previous two races have been incredibly entertaining and have provided a lot of surprises. The Chicago Street Course is a purpose-built temporary circuit and layout for stock car racing. The idea was conceived thanks to iRacing. In 2021 the layout was arranged for the eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series. That event was a success for iRacing, but it also kicked off interest in running the race in reality on the streets of Chicago. The sanctioning body got to work right away and after several months of planning with the city of Chicago, the layout was confirmed and the event was announced on July 19, 2022.

The inaugural race on this circuit would be a rain affected affair. Shane van Gisbergen would solve the wet conditions and the competition to race into victory lane in his first-ever NASCAR Cup Series start. The second race at Chicago last season was in much better weather conditions and it would be Alex Bowman who would rise late and lead the final 8 laps to defeat Tyler Reddick and capture the win. Both of these races had their twists and surprises. What other surprises could be in store this weekend in Chicago for the third Grant Park 165? We'll soon find out. In the meantime, we'll give you the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games for the Grant Park 165 on the streets of Chicago.      

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Christopher Bell – Already a three-time winner on Cup Series road circuits in his young career in NASCAR's top division, Bell has the obvious gift of road course racing. His 15-career Top 10's in 26 starts on these style tracks also work out to a strong 58-percent Top-10 rate. Bell's last six road racing events alone have netted a victory, three runner-up finishes along with five Top-10 finishes. The young driver has qualified well (5.5 average start) and led a lot of laps (51) in his two prior Chicago starts but hasn't fetched the great finishes yet. We expect Bell and the No. 20 Toyota team to be in strong contention to win the Grant Park 165.  

Shane van Gisbergen – The Kiwi made a huge splash two years ago when he made his first NASCAR Cup Series start in the inaugural Grant Park 165 and won shockingly on a rain-slicked street circuit in Chicago. Van Gisbergen was unable to defend his Chicago race win last season and crashed out early in last year's installment of this event. However, he did lead laps and qualify well in that race too. The Trackhouse Racing driver has already captured a win this season on road circuits (Mexico City) and he led 23 laps in Austin and finished a strong sixth-place at the Circuit of the Americas. With a bold 83-percent Top-10 rate on Cup Series road circuits and minuscule 7.7 average finish, van Gisbergen will be a factor in the outcome of this race.  

Tyler Reddick – The 23XI Racing youngster has been an incredible performer on the road circuits the last few seasons. Reddick has three victories, eight Top-5 and 16 Top-10 finishes in his 26 road racing events. More amazing his how good he qualifies for these races. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota has posted a strong 8.1 average start on road tracks and an even strong 3.0 average start in his two Chicago starts. That doesn't always translate to wins and Top 5's but it is the opportunity. Reddick qualified on the outside pole here in 2023 and he finished runner-up in this event one year ago. We believe he'll be upset minded in Sunday's Grant Park 165.

Chase Elliott – Elliott has not won on a road course since 2021, but he's a career seven-time winner in this style of racing. 35-percent of his career Cup Series wins have come on road circuits. That's an incredible percentage and a real testament to Elliott's skill in road racing. Despite being winless of late, the Hendrick Motorsports star has been really close with a pair of Top-5 finishes earlier this season at both COTA and Mexico City. His most recent outing netted an impressive third-place finish in the inaugural Mexico race a few weeks ago. Elliott drove to an incredible third-place finish in challenging conditions in this event two years ago. Coming off his big win at Atlanta this past weekend, we cannot rule out this gifted road racing driver at the Chicago Street Course.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has been a steady performer on the road circuits since last season. With two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes since the 2024 campaign, Bowman is standing pretty tall coming to Chicago. The 14.7 average finish over the last six road racing events is very respectable. Bowman surged late in the Grant Park 165 last year and propelled his No. 48 Chevrolet into victory lane. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has finished ninth- and fourth-place at COTA and Mexico City already this season. We believe Bowman has all the tools necessary to crack the Top 10 this Sunday afternoon and possibly challenge for the win.

Ty Gibbs – The young driver of the No. 54 Toyota has been "locked in" during his two prior Chicago Street Course starts. Gibbs nabbed a strong ninth-place finish in the inaugural Grant Park 165 and he exceeded that last season with an outside pole, 17 laps led and impressive third-place finish. He's one of only three drivers in the field to capture Top 10's both Chicago races. Gibbs has shown a wonderful knack for this style of racing despite his struggles on ovals the past two years. He grabbed an impressive third-place at COTA last season and very recently finished a respectable 11th-place Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City. We believe Gibbs is nearly a must-start in all fantasy formats on the streets of Chicago.

William Byron – Byron has really upped his game on the road circuits over the past couple seasons. He's grabbed one win and one runner-up finish in the last six events alone. He was a runner-up finisher earlier this season at Circuit of the Americas, and that's a great look heading into Chicago for the Grant Park 165. Byron isn't likely a big contender to win on the street course this weekend, but he should be steady enough to log a certain Top-10 finish. He finished a strong eighth-place in this event one year ago and a reasonable 13th-place in the inaugural Chicago race. Byron recently finished ninth-place in Mexico City and we believe that's the floor this weekend for this driver and team.

Kyle Busch – Busch has had struggles a plenty this season and rides a three-race Top-10 drought into Chicago this week. However, we believe the Chicago Street Course could be the event that spurs a rebound and comeback for the No. 8 Chevrolet team. Busch has been quite proficient on the road circuits since coming to Richard Childress Racing. His two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in the last six road racing events represent reasonable fantasy value. Busch was fifth-place earlier in the year at COTA and reminded everyone of his utility in this style of racing. The veteran driver has grabbed fifth- and ninth-place finishes in his first two Chicago starts. He should be very energized and optimistic about his prospects this weekend.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of road course racing & solid upside

Kyle Larson – Larson has been bit off a boom or bust driver on road circuits in recent events, but he's still managed a win a couple races in his last six starts on the winding circuits. In addition to those victories, the Hendrick Motorsports stars also grabbed a Top-15 finish at Watkins Glen last season. As prone as he is to surprise and dominate, Larson can also have a tendency to disappear when it comes to road course events. His two finishes outside the Top 30 at COTA and Mexico City this season dampen our expectations a bit, but Larson still brings to the table tremendous upside. Larson finished Top 5 in the inaugural Chicago race and sat on the pole before crashing out of last season's Grant Park 165.

Chris Buescher – He's been the most consistent road racing performer of the past couple seasons. Buescher owns a series-leading five Top-10 finishes in the last six road course events and has nabbed Top 10's at both COTA and Mexico coming into Sunday's action in Chicago. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver isn't a major threat to win these events, but he and his team have been good enough to stick around the Top 10 in almost every one of late. Buescher may not qualify well, but that's of little concern. He recently came from 24th on the grid to finish seventh at Circuit of the Americas earlier this season. Buescher raced to a steady 10th-place finish at Mexico City just a couple weeks ago. He should be at least that good this Sunday afternoon in the Windy City. 

Chase Briscoe – The driver of the No. 19 Toyota is racing well right now. Briscoe has won recently at Pocono and finished Top 10 at Mexico City. Briscoe ran into some trouble at Atlanta this past week, but he should rebound well in the Grant Park 165. He's not raced particularly well on this circuit the last two seasons (20th-place is best finish) but that was for his former team. Briscoe will be making his first Chicago Street Course start with Joe Gibbs Racing and bring the best car he's had to the track this weekend. He's been a reasonably good performer on these style tracks this season with this race team. In addition to his Mexico Top 10 he also posted a respectable Top 15 at COTA earlier this season.     

Michael McDowell – With plenty of apparent road racing skills, McDowell is a driver to not be overlooked this weekend in the Windy City. In this race one year ago the veteran Spire Motorsports driver labored to a strong fifth-place finish. He also grabbed a strong seventh-place finish in the inaugural Grant Park 165. That coincides nicely with his 50-percent Top-10 rate over the last two seasons on the road racing circuit. Most recently the driver of the No. 71Chevrolet hustled to an impressive fifth-place finish at Mexico City a few weeks ago. Certainly, that track is far different from Chicago's street layout, but it still takes some exception left/right turning ability to finish that well. McDowell has major upside for the Grant Park 165.     

AJ Allmendinger – With his 50-percent Top-10 rate on road courses the last two seasons, it would be criminal to overlook the potential Allmendinger brings to the table in Chicago. He had some struggles in the two prior Grant Park 165 starts, but we believe this driver and team can rebound. Allmendinger has above average road racing skills and his first two starts at Chicago were very educational experiences. The Kaulig Racing veteran was Top 15 at Mexico City a couple weeks ago and that builds on his three-career road racing victories and 22 Top-10 finishes on these style circuits. We believe the No. 16 Chevrolet team will be one to watch closely on the Chicago Street Course.  

Todd Gilliland – In the deep sleeper category this week we offer Gilliland and his Front Row Motorsports team. The young driver has shown some ability in road racing the past two seasons with two Top-10 and four Top-20 finishes for a reasonable 17.0 average finish in this style of racing. Gilliland was Top 10 at COTA earlier this season which was a noteworthy accomplishment in itself. The driver of the No. 34 Ford finished seventh-place in last year's Grant Park 165 and that gives him an average finish of 13.0 in his two Chicago Street Course starts. Gilliland represents fantasy value this weekend in the lower driver tiers of weekly lineup games.  

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is your "homerun or strikeout" prospect for the Chicago Street Course. As an example, he qualified on the pole position in this event two seasons ago but slipped to a respectable 11th-place by the checkered flag. Hamlin returned to this track last season and had a disastrous outing. The Joe Gibbs Racing star would run into trouble and finish a distant 30th-place in the Grant Park 165. Hamlin's recent road racing stats aren't very encouraging either. With no Top 10's in his last six road course starts and a 22.0 average finish across the span, this has become Hamlin's least productive form of racing. He finished 21st-place earlier this season at COTA and that's probably a good mark to expect for Chicago.

Austin Dillon – There are few words to describe the struggles Dillon has had on the road circuits that couple seasons. He has no Top-20 finishes in the last six starts and most recently he logged 35th- and 28th-place finishes at COTA and Mexico City. The Richard Childress Racing veteran has always struggled in this style of racing as his 5-percent Top-10 rate and 23.1 average finish illustrates. Dillon's two prior starts in Chicago have netted 36th- and 19th-place finishes for a lowly 27.5 average finish. He and the No. 3 Chevrolet team will be fantasy non-factors in Sunday's Grant Park 165.  

Joey Logano –  Coming off the Atlanta disappointment, Logano is going to find it hard to rebound on the streets of Chicago. The Penske Racing star has been a mixed bag here in the two prior events. Logano qualified well and finished eighth in the inaugural Grant Park 165, but he qualified poorly and finished 23rd in last season's installment of this race. Road racing in general for this driver and team have been a struggle the last two seasons. With just one Top 10 in six starts (17-percent) and 16.7 average finish, things aren't looking the greatest. Logano struggled to 24th- and 21st-place finishes earlier this season at COTA and Mexico City, so we would warn to lower any expectations for Logano this weekend.  

Josh Berry – Berry's win at Las Vegas earlier this season and generally good racing on intermediate ovals have been his strength this season. However, the Wood Brothers Racing driver has had tremendous struggles on road circuits in recent times. Berry has no Top-20 finishes in his last six road course starts and a 27.7 average finish across that span. That includes his pair of 26th-place finishes this season at both COTA and Mexico. Berry will be making just his second start on the Chicago Street Course this weekend. He slogged to a disappointing 36th-place finish in the Grant Park 165 last year. This is clearly a driver to avoid for this Sunday's street course battle.