With the regular season in the rearview mirror, it's time for a look back. So far, we've examined the position players, starting pitchers and relief pitchers who provided the most value relative to their draft slot, as well as the position players who disappointed. Next up are the starting pitcher busts. I'll be using RotoWire's preseason ADP numbers for 12-team NFBC leagues and RW's earned auction values.
Disclaimer: You won't find guys who had their seasons derailed by a major injury (i.e. UCL, ACL) in this space. We know what went wrong there.
Roki Sasaki, 
Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 105.4, 25th among starting pitchers
EAV: 189th among starting pitchers
Sasaki's first year in the states has been a fascinating one. While he's done his best to salvage his first season with some stellar work out of the bullpen late in the regular season and in the playoffs, there's no disputing Sasaki's performance as a starter in 2025 was massively disappointing. The 23-year-old began the season in the Dodgers' rotation but landed on the 15-day injured list in early May with a right shoulder impingement after posting a 4.72 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 29:22 K:BB over 34.1 innings covering eight starts. He didn't make another start with the big club after that, going through numerous starts and stops during his rehab as he and the Dodgers worked on his mechanics and rediscovering his stuff and velocity. Sasaki finally had a breakthrough in early September while working with director
With the regular season in the rearview mirror, it's time for a look back. So far, we've examined the position players, starting pitchers and relief pitchers who provided the most value relative to their draft slot, as well as the position players who disappointed. Next up are the starting pitcher busts. I'll be using RotoWire's preseason ADP numbers for 12-team NFBC leagues and RW's earned auction values.
Disclaimer: You won't find guys who had their seasons derailed by a major injury (i.e. UCL, ACL) in this space. We know what went wrong there.
Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 105.4, 25th among starting pitchers
EAV: 189th among starting pitchers
Sasaki's first year in the states has been a fascinating one. While he's done his best to salvage his first season with some stellar work out of the bullpen late in the regular season and in the playoffs, there's no disputing Sasaki's performance as a starter in 2025 was massively disappointing. The 23-year-old began the season in the Dodgers' rotation but landed on the 15-day injured list in early May with a right shoulder impingement after posting a 4.72 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 29:22 K:BB over 34.1 innings covering eight starts. He didn't make another start with the big club after that, going through numerous starts and stops during his rehab as he and the Dodgers worked on his mechanics and rediscovering his stuff and velocity. Sasaki finally had a breakthrough in early September while working with director of pitching Rob Hill, and he's been a lockdown reliever since then, yielding one run on just four hits with a 10:2 K:BB over 10 innings across two regular season and seven postseason appearances. I fully expect Sasaki to get another opportunity in the Dodgers' rotation in 2026, and if that happens, he'll be the ultimate wild card of a fantasy pick.
Aaron Nola, 
Philadelphia Phillies
ADP: 96.9, 21st among starting pitchers
EAV: 162nd among starting pitchers
From 2018 to 2024, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Nola made at least 32 regular-season starts every year, as well as an additional 10 postseason starts over that stretch. In 2025, Nola made just 17 regular-season starts for the Phillies and finished with an ugly 6.01 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 97:28 K:BB across 94.1 frames. It was a sprained ankle that initially sent him to the IL in mid-May and a stress fracture in his right rib that delayed his return until mid-August. Nola's ERA after coming back remained elevated (5.84), but a 1.16 WHIP and 45:12 K:BB over 44.2 innings were encouraging and he mixed in a couple gems in September. The veteran right-hander has a lot of mileage on his arm, but he's just 32 and his injury problems in 2025 were not elbow- or shoulder-related. Nola's velocity this season was down only slightly, and he still got whiffs on his curveball (39.1 percent). It's reasonable to expect some level of bounceback in 2026.
Bryce Miller, 
Seattle Mariners
ADP: 88.3, 17th among starting pitchers
EAV: 187th among starting pitchers
Miller was limited to only 18 regular-season starts in 2025 due to two separate trips to the injured list with right elbow inflammation. Given his unsightly 5.68 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 74:34 K:BB over 90.1 innings, it's fair to assume the elbow issues affected his performance at least somewhat when he was on the bump, as well. Miller gave up just one fewer hit on his splitter in 2025 than he did in 2024 even though he threw the pitch nearly 200 fewer times, and he permitted some of the loudest contact in the league, with an average exit velocity in the first percentile. The right-hander finished the season healthy and put up a 2.51 ERA in three postseason starts, though he also struck out only nine batters in 14.1 innings of work. Miller was always likely to regress in the ERA department from his 2.94 mark in 2024, given that most ERA indicators had him at nearly a full run worse. His strikeout rate dipping to just 18.9 percent in 2025 is not something anyone saw coming, though. Miller should be better in 2026, if healthy, but the extreme flyball pitcher's fortunes will always be tied in large part to how his home run luck shakes out.
Sean Manaea, 
New York Mets
ADP: 59th, 227.9 among starting pitchers
EAV: 152nd among starting pitchers
Speaking of luck, Manaea didn't have it in 2025, either from an injury or performance standpoint. After re-signing with the Mets on a three-year, $75 million contract last offseason, the start of Manaea's 2025 campaign was delayed until midseason by a severe oblique strain and a loose body in his pitching elbow. After collecting a 2.08 ERA in his first four starts, Manaea collected a 7.06 mark the rest of the way and finished the season in the Mets' bullpen. The velocity on both of Manaea's fastballs was down, but an excellent 75:12 K:BB across 60.2 frames suggests he had a good amount of bad fortune. In fact, Manaea's 3.07 SIERA in 2025 was significantly better than the 3.96 SIERA he had in 2024. With health, there's hope Manaea can return to being closer to the guy he was down the stretch of 2024 after he lowered his arm slot (3.09 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 83:18 K:BB across his final 75.2 regular-season frames). Unfortunately, there's still a health-related gray cloud hanging over the southpaw in regard to the loose body in his pitching elbow. At last check, Manaea hadn't determined whether he'd have offseason surgery.
Bailey Ober, 
Minnesota Twins
ADP: 96.2, 20th among starting pitchers
EAV: 123rd among starting pitchers
Ober was destroyed in his first start of the season for the second year in a row, this time serving up eight runs over just 2.2 innings in St. Louis. The big right-hander initially rebounded from that outing with a 2.43 ERA over his next 11 starts. However, unlike in 2024, Ober was not able to sustain it, putting up an ugly 6.30 ERA the rest of the way while mixing in a month-plus absence with a hip problem. Ober has always been light on velocity, but his 90.2 mph average four-seamer velo in 2025 was easily a career low, and in six of his final seven starts of the season he averaged less than 90 mph with the pitch. With the velocity of his best offering—the changeup—holding steady, there wasn't enough speed variance in the hurler's two main pitches to keep hitters off balance. Perhaps the hip issue nagged at Ober and he will be fine with an offseason of rest, but it's difficult to see him surviving without regaining some pep on the heater.
Runners-up: Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres; Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers; Michael King, San Diego Padres; Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians; Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
