This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Bets for May 21: Expert Picks and SGPs
2025 Betting Record: 6-15 (-10.21 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 9-7 (+0.86 units)
With another all-day Wednesday slate on tap, I'm focusing on an evening matchup in each circuit with diametrically opposite offensive expectations.
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MLB Picks for Rangers at Yankees
- Under 2.5 runs - F3 (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Jacob deGrom Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (+108 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Jacob deGrom and Ryan Yarbrough face off in this mid-week Bronx battle. Both pitchers check in with a solid body of work over the first quarter of the season. The talented but frequently health-challenged deGrom appears to finally be back to full strength after a rocky last few seasons on the injury front, as he sports a 4-1 record, 2.29 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 15.4 percent swinging strike rate.
The right-hander's fastball is a tick down from last season on average – he's clocking 97.1 mph on it this season compared to 97.4 in his 2024 cameo. DeGrom's heater is still obviously in the upper echelon of MLB. His .218 xBA, .277 xwOBA and 2.83 xERA all substantiate that his base numbers aren't a mirage. DeGrom is facing a group of dangerous Yankees hitters that he's nevertheless tamed to the tune of a collective .176/.263/.392 slash line across 57 career encounters. He also boasts a .155 BAA with runners in scoring position and respective .221 and .200 BAAs his first and second time through an opponent's order, which helps fuel my first pick of a lower-scoring affair through the first three frames.
That selection is further encouraged by Yarbrough's presence on the mound to start the game for New York. The versatile veteran left-hander has opened his first season in the Big Apple operating in usual jack-of-all-trades role, and he's posted a 1-0 mark, 3.70 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 10 appearances (two starts).
Yarbrough has a good matchup on paper against a Rangers team that sports a 31.7 percent strikeout rate, .208 average, .268 wOBA and -5.2 wRAA against left-handers on the road in the last month of play. He's also stymied current Texas batters regularly in his career, holding them to a .221/.280/.384 slash in 92 encounters, a span where he's rung up 24 Ks. Moreover, the Rangers are averaging just 3.2 runs per road game, the fifth-lowest figure in all of baseball in that split.
The Yankees are naturally capable of breaking out on any given night, but deGrom's track record this season and against New York in the past, as well as the fact he's recorded at least 17 outs on four occasions, puts his Outs Recorded prop in play as well at plus money.
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MLB Picks for Phillies at Rockies
- SGP: Phillies -1.5 and Nick Castellanos To Record A Hit (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Phillies -1.5 - F7 (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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The Rockies have proven to be a level of bad during the first couple of months of the season that negates the need for overthinking any bets that bank on them underperforming, irrespective of opponent. Add in a contending team like the Phillies and the Coors Field setting, and that holds even truer.
Colorado has an 8-40 record overall, including 5-18 at their hitter-friendly home park. The Phillies are 13-10 straight up on the road and are averaging a solid 4.5 runs per game when traveling. Naturally, Coors ups the expectations for a team that counts the likes of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos as members of its lineup, as does the fact the Rockies will roll out young left-hander Carson Palmquist for Wednesday's turn.
Palmquist will make his second MLB start and first at Coors after allowing five runs on six hits over four innings in his debut against the Diamondbacks. The Phillies are a formidable opponent, considering their .306 average, .875 OPS, .381 wOBA and +5.7 wRAA against left-handers on the road in the last month.
Philadelphia has a solid +33 run differential overall and its pitchers are allowing the third-fewest runs per road game (3.7). Phillies starter Taijuan Walker has a 4-1 career record against the Rockies, with three of those victories coming at Coors alongside a 2.43 ERA. Meanwhile, the Rockies have an MLB-worst -153 run differential and their bullpen has pitched to a 6.88 ERA and NL-high .336 BAA/co-NL-high .406 wOBA at home in the last month.
Then, with Castellanos boasting a .407 average and .447 wOBA against lefties on the road and a career .333 average and .963 OPS in 17 games at Coors, I like the idea of throwing in a prop on him hitting safely at least once to form an SGP as the main pick.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Rangers-Yankees Under 2.5 runs - F3 (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Jacob deGrom Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (+108 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Phillies -1.5 and Nick Castellanos To Record A Hit (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Phillies -1.5- F7 (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
