Collette Calls: The Struggle Bus

I came up with the concept of this article after assessing the damage Charlie Morton had done to several of my rosters on Sunday. I have Morton in several leagues because I play in multiple AL-Only leagues and I was looking for cheap late round volume in these drafts. As the well-known profane meme goes, "Our expectatations were low, but...(I'll let you Google the rest)." 

The decision to cut Morton Sunday night in AL LABR, where I could not bench him, was an easy one. I benched him or cut him in other leagues depending on needs. This was, after all, an end-game pick, so the decision to cut and run is an easy one despite the track record Morton has, because he doesn't pass the eye test right now and I challenge you to find a redeeming quality on his BaseballSavant page. The last time I saw that much blue on one page, Papa Smurf was lecturing the family of Smurfs on another life lesson. This article is not about the easy choice but rather, the tough ones. 

Several players have hit the 100 plate appearance mark already, with many more to follow over the next few days. Many pitchers have already made five starts, with a sixth coming later this week. I want to put together a roster of a team that is riding the struggle bus but also want to use players who are not so easily dismissed. Therefore, to qualify for this discussion, players need to be:

• Inside the top 216 by Rotowire Online Championship ADP (first to 18th rounders)
• Currently on an active roster (i.e. not demoted to minors or injured)
• At least four starts or eight relief appearances into their season

The values below are from our earned auction value calculator, and stats are through games played on April 21st. I'm not putting together a full roster, but rather a lineup. I am making an exception at catcher because there are two catchers that were extremely hot commodities this draft season which have had terrible starts to the season. 

Struggling Hitters

Catcher 1 - Yainer Diaz: ADP 60; EAV -$12

Somehow, I'm in first place in an 11-team AL-Only league despite having both Houston catchers as my backstops. I'm more worried about this one than I am about the other catcher below, because the quality of the contact and the at-bats are not the same. Diaz was always a big chaser, but he was still able to make above-average contact. That contact has fallen to league average while the quality of that contact as well as his bat speed have fallen further: 

At least with Contreras, there are some positive signs to look at in the profile. The only thing Diaz has going for him is a slightly above average barrel rate and bat speed, but everything else to date is cratering from last season. The good news is that Victor Caratini isn't doing any better, and both catchers struggle defensively controlling the running game, so Diaz's playing time doesn't appear to be in danger. Still, we should all be adjusting our expectations for Diaz accordingly because his sophomore slump is a year delayed and is thus far very real in 2025. 

Catcher 2 - Willson Contreras: ADP 71; EAV -$4

Contreras was supposed to be the chosen one this season, but his statistics have turned to the dark side. He was the holy grail of players who qualified at catcher but weren't going to play catcher, and we should have been able to bank upon 600-plus plate appearances of first base production. Yet the position change may have had more of an impact than we imagined. Contreras is currently hitting .182/.234/.295 in 95 plate appearances, with a career-worst walk rate of 4.2 percent along with a career-worst 30.5 percent strikeout rate. 

The good news is that he has still demonstrated 96th percentile max exit velocity and 95th percentile bat speed, yet his production is decidedly lagging compared to the outcomes we've come to expect from players who hit the ball that hard with such a quick swing. The cratering walk rate and worsening chase rate at the plate make it clear he's fighting through some things right now, so you have to hang your hat on his quality of contact, when he actually makes it. 

This too shall pass, but Contreras will need a red-hot summer in St. Louis to catch up to the expectations we had of him this winter.

First Base - Christian Walker: ADP 103; EAV -$11

Speaking of cheat codes; Walker was supposed to be the perfect fit for Houston as it looked to retool its offense after allowing both Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker to walk while bringing in Walker and Isaac Paredes. The overhaul is not working out well for Houston, as they're 24th in runs scored and hitting .226/.304/.336 as a team. 

My instant thought when I see this is that it tells me that the player is struggling adjusting to a new league for the first time. Yes, we have increasing amounts of interleague play these days, but Walker now has to get visual muscle memory of a slew of new arm angles and pitches in the American League which he didn't see on a regular basis in the National League. The fact he currently has full-season worsts in strikeout rate as well as chase rate only further lead me to believe this too shall pass as he gets a second turn around the league. I would absolutely be reaching out to Walker owners to see just how frustrated they are right now with his terrible start. 

Second Base - Luis Rengifo: ADP 168; EAV - $6

Rengifo came up lame in mid-March and it delayed his start to the season. He's at 83 plate appearances but is nowhere near where he was production-wise from 2022-2024 to date. I haven't included a rankings table for him because Rengifo did not have enough playing time to qualify for the rankings last season despite his 304 plate appearances and his 24 steals. The only thing we can look at right now is that his Max EV has dropped from the 63rd percentile to the 34th percentile while his sprint speed went from 37th to 18th. The latter is to be expected from someone dealing with a tweaked hamstring, but the decline in bat speed (down to the 19th percentile) and max exit velocity is extremely concerning. Even more concerning is the fact Rengifo was a popular speed play and he has but one failed attempted steal this season. Simply put, there is very little to like here, and it's likely time to move on if you have other options available on the wire or the trade market.

Shortstop - Willy Adames: ADP 95; EAV -$1

This one speaks to the one of the tenants of the SMART system which Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf have long proselytized: "Do not pay big bucks for free agents who sign big money deals to play in a new city. Adjustments take a couple of months, and as a result, year-long stats suffer."

Adames, unlike Walker, did not change leagues over the winter, but Adames is clearly going through the adjustment period Colton and Wolf reference in their guidance on such players. Better days should be ahead for him, but this slow start is going to likely put his overall numbers closer to where things were in 2023 run-production wise than where they were last season in Milwaukee. The change in venue was expected to eat into Adames's production this season, but not to this extent. 

Third Base - Alec Bohm: ADP 167; EAV -$9

Bohm having as many homers as the person writing this article and everyone reading it tells you just how terrible his season has begun:

The cratering walk rate this season jumps out because Bohm has one more walk than he does homer this season and has been hit by more pitches (two) than he has earned walks as well. Perhaps the Philadelphia fans can sing him a song and revive his outcomes like they did Trea Turner last season because quite honestly, the rest of that 2025 chart is much better than what his .198/.223/.264 outcomes have been to date. I would be in on Bohm right now just on regression alone because better days have to be ahead for him. He may not be able to get back to his .280 average of last season, but his homers and runs scored are still within reach even if another year of challenging 100 RBI is all but a lost cause at this point. 

Outfielder 1 - Anthony Santander: ADP 87; EAV: -$7

Honestly, just scroll up a bit and read what I said about Willy Adames because so much of it applies here:

The pressure of expectations is weighing heavily on Santander's shoulders. He signed a huge deal, and not only stayed in the American League, but remained in the American League East. The familiarity of it all should be helping ease the transition, yet his .196/.265/.304 line with two homers and single-digit run and RBI totals to date aren't what fantasy managers nor the Jays signed up for. A repeat of his 2023 line is within reach, but getting to 30-plus homers is going to take some heavy lifting from here on out. 

Outfielder 2 - Brandon Nimmo: ADP 184; EAV $1

Nimmo was a mid-round target for many looking to boost their run projections in a retooled Met offense, but he currently has more RBI (10) than runs scored (8) this season as he struggles out of the gate with a .205/.253/.375 triple-slash line:

Nimmo is actually doing better in many areas this season, but the glaring change is the drop in walk rate. It is not a loss of skill as much as a loss in opportunity because Nimmo has been shifted from the top of the lineup to the middle of it so he is now being asked to drive in runs more than generate them with walks. That is the adjustment he is dealing with for the time being, but there is otherwise much to like in this profile. He's not going to get to 100 runs scored this season, but he could set a new career-high in RBIs as things heat up this season.

Outfielder 3 - Michael Toglia: ADP 181; EAV -$10

We knew the risks coming into the season with this profile, but the reward was too tasty to pass on because the Rockies always seem to have someone step out out of nowhere to exceed expectations and many, myself included, thought this was going to be the guy this season. So far, that could not be further from the truth:

Toglia has two walks and 35 strikeouts this season in 76 plate appearances. We're talking about the Rockies, so we can rule out doing the smart thing, which would be to send him back to Triple-A to get his head straight, because he's clearly pressing and has all but abandoned his plate discipline as he looks to force some action at the plate. Colorado has played a heavy road schedule to open the season, and Toglia has been absolutely wretched on the road with a .100/.122/.200 line and a 61 percent strikeout rate while looking better at home with a .281/.314/.344 line and a 29 percent strikeout rate. If you still have faith in Toglia, you can use him as a home streamer and hope something rebounds, but in shallower leagues you cannot afford to carry these extreme splits right now and you need to play catchup for the numbers you've already lost while waiting for Toglia to get hot again as he did last summer. 

Struggling Pitchers

Starter - Yusei Kikuchi: ADP 168; EAV -$5

Leave it to the Angels to take a good thing and change it. Houston famously tweaked Kikuchi's repertoire after trading for him last season and his numbers took off. The Angels signed him in the offseason and coached him to lower his arm angle while encouraging him to throw his slider more often

The early results from the Angels' tweaking of Kikuchi are sub-optimal. He is 0-3 through five starts while nearly doubling his walk rate and cutting into his strikeout rate while working through the new mechanics. He is being saved by a .253 BABIP and an 80 percent LOB% to date, but it remains to be seen what comes this summer as the weather heats up or if Kikuchi goes back to the higher armslot. He's been tough to hit, with opponents managing just a .215 batting average, but the walks and homers become riskier as the weather warms. 

Starter - Seth Lugo; ADP 179; EAV -$5

Lugo was a godsend last season for fantasy managers as he greatly outperformed his projections and found himself on many league-winning teams. This season, it's been a different story:

Kansas City has struggled offensively, so the wins haven't yet been there for Lugo, who has but one win through five starts this season. The larger issue to date has been home runs, as he's already allowed six himers in 30 innings of work after allowing just 16 in 206.2 innings last season. He continues to throw seemingly 18 different pitch types, but the velocity and spin on his fastball are down from last season and he's become more hittable as a result. The .244 BABIP and 81 percent LOB% have helped keep his ERA under 4.00 while the indicators continue to paint a more dire story. This isn't a cut and run situation as much as a resetting of expectations because 2025 is looking more like 2023 than anything else. It is not what fantasy managers were hoping for when taking him in the 15th round, but this appears to be the path Lugo is on this season.

Reliever - Emmanuel Clase: ADP 42; EAV -$9

I know I was more pessimistic on Clase than the market this winter, but even I did not envision this rough of a start to the 2025 season. Or, is it just a continuation of what we saw from him in the 2024 postseason? 

Clase has already allowed more earned runs this season (nine) in 10.1 innings of work than he did all last season (five) in 74.1 innings of work. He has blown two of his six save chances and the league has hit .408 off him so far as he's struggling with the command of his cutter. I'm sure there was a point in the career of any closer where they had a rough patch like this and they eventually righted the ship, but this rough start all but ruins any chance Clase had of becoming the first reliever with four consecutive seasons of 40-plus saves as well as 70-plus games pitched. 

You're obviously not cutting Clase, but if your draft outcome was taking Clase as an anchor while speculating on some lesser closers, it's time to make necessary adjustments until Clase rights the ship with his command because the cutter is finding too much of the strike zone at this time. Lance Brozdowski has some interesting notes in his latest YouTube short:

Overall, this list is more about resetting expectations or buying low than all-out cuts. It's understandably frustrating to watch key pieces of your team falter out of the gate, and while excruciating patience is often the preferred path for success, sometimes tough calls to cut someone or risky plays to acquire someone hoping for a rebound must be made. Choose wisely. 

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