Top MLB Betting Picks for July 25: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 2-1 ( +1.02 units) (parlays will not count for or against record, but will for units)
Season 93-98-1 (-8.49 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Friday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Watch the heat, as always, in outdoor parks for totals.
Home Favorites - Brewers -230 vs Marlins, Orioles -195 vs Rockies
Road Favorites - Cubs -180 at White Sox
Totals - Yankees/Phillies 10.0-10.5, Dodgers/Red Sox 9.5-10.0, Giants/Mets 7.5
Line Movement - Brewers -45
Bullpen Rankings as of 7.25.25 (xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Brewers, Cardinals, Astros, Marlins, Giants, Pirates, Phillies, Twins, Braves, Padres). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Angels, Rockies, Orioles, Royals, Yankees, Reds, Nationals, Dodgers, Dbacks, Mets). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Insights
My first glance at a baseball slate looks for the biggest starting pitching mismatch. There are no real "aces" going today, but we have Nick Pivetta against Miles Mikolas. Pivetta has been good all year, but his home splits are a lot better than his road ones. The trade off on the home/road numbers, is that Pivetta has been strong in his last 5 starts with a 0.57 ERA and 0.77 WHIP.
The Padres offense has struggled which makes laying -1.5 runs on the road a tough play. But on the other side Mikolas has been terrible over his last 9 starts with a 7.09 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He has been much worse on the road, but the home numbers are still bad.
MLB Best Bets: Padres -1.5 for 1 unit (BetMGM -125)
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Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Best Bets and Predictions
I am usually conservative with laying -1.5 runs, but this slate is a tough one and there are not many mismatches. We do have one here with Freddy Peralta up against Cal Quantrill. The Brewers are playing incredible baseball right now while the Marlins are better than expected.
The key with Peralta is taking him at home where he has a 1.53 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, vs. a 4.19 ERA and 1.24 WHIP on the road. The biggest difference is the walks. His BB/9 at home is 1.8 against 4.3 on the road.
The Brewers soar into the game at 9-1 last 10 and 15-5 in their last 20 with a 33-17 record at home.
MLB Best Bets: Brewers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -105)
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Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers Best Bets and Predictions
Another run line favorite is on the board for the day, but I can not get away from the complete pitching mismatch of Nathan Eovaldi against Joey Wentz.
The Rangers are starting to turn their season around with a 12-8 record last 20 and 17-13 last 30. The Braves continue to sputter with a 7-13 record in their last 20.
Eovaldi has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 7-3 record, 1.58 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Wentz has been one of the worst with a 5.71 ERA and 1.81 WHIP.
MLB Best Bets: Rangers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (Caesars +125)
MLB Picks Sunday Recap
- Padres -1.5 for 1 unit (BetMGM -125)
- Brewers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -105)
- Rangers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (Caesars +125)
