This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for May 23: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 0-2 (-2.00 units)
Season 51-56-1 (-5.15 units)
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Key Trends in Today's MLB Matchups
Before locking in your MLB bets today, be sure to check out these key betting trends.
Road Favorites - Yankees -275 at Rockies, Rangers -190 at White Sox, Phillies -180 at Athletics
Home Favorites (Largest) - Twins -185 vs Royals, Braves -170 vs Padres
Totals - Yankees/Rockies 11.5-12.0, Phillies/Athletics 9.5, Orioles/Red Sox 9.5
Brewers/Pirates 7.0, Twins/Royals 7.5, Padres/Braves 7.5
Weather Conditions and Their Impact on MLB Betting Odds
A lot of cooler temperatures across the slate today with temperatures in the 50-60 degree range which should result in a lower scoring environment.
Possible Rain Delay/Rainouts - Orioles/Red Sox (2nd game)
Negative Scoring Environments (based on temperature and wind) - Guardians/Tigers, Royals/Twins, Dbacks/Cardinals
Positive Scoring Environments - Yankees/Rockies, Blue Jays/Rays
MLB Line Movement
Braves -28, Twins -26
For the most part, totals have moved down 0.5 runs on the slate (reflection of the colder temperatures)
Bullpen Rankings (updated 5/20/25)
Top 10 (Twins, Astros, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, Padres, Blue Jays, Royals). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Angels, Dbacks, Rockies, Marlins, White Sox, Orioles, Braves, Nationals, Rays, Tigers). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on first 5 inning lines.
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Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Insights
I went with the UNDER in Reds/Pirates and will continue with Cubs/Reds as the Reds offense is really struggling. The Cubs offense is driving this total up to 8.5 runs, but this is a pitching matchup of Matthew Boyd and Hunter Greene, who both have ERA's under 3.00. I have the total projected closer to 7.5-8.0.
Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cincinnati's last 10 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games against Chicago Cubs.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 7 games at home.
MLB Best Bets: Cubs/Reds UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets and Predictions
I have been riding this Pirates UNDER train for quite some time, and I also love when two aces are facing off against each other for UNDER F5 wagers. In this case, I will look at the full game total of 7.0 runs because the F5 total is just so low.
The pitching matchup of Freddy Peralta against Paul Skenes is one of the best on the slate, and the Pirates' anemic offense of scoring just 2.4 runs per game in their last 10. The average runs per game in Skenes' last 10 starts is 5.9 runs.
MLB Best Bets: Brewers/Pirates UNDER 7.0 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Best Bets and Predictions
In sticking with the theme of going UNDER, these two teams have been trending that way also. The weather is a factor of this as well. In order to look at at full game under, you also need some starting pitching help and the Twins are starting Pablo Lopez who has a 2.40 ERA. The total has started to move from 8.0 in most places to 7.5.
Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Kansas City's last 20 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 8 games against Kansas City.
MLB Best Bets: Royals/Twins UNDER 8.0 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -110)
MLB Picks Today Recap
- Cubs/Reds UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
- Brewers/Pirates UNDER 7.0 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
- Royals/Twins UNDER 8.0 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -110)
