An 11-game main slate is on tap Friday evening at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:07 p.m. EDT. It's incredibly top-heavy with regards to pitching, as six arms are priced in five-figures, with four more at $9,000 or more, though that currently includes Merrill Kelly ($9,400), who was traded to Texas yesterday and seems unlikely to debut this quickly.
To no one's surprise, the highest run total comes in Coors Field, but it's the Rockies and Pirates, so can we trust that 11.5 number? Thanks to all of the premium pitching, other totals across the board are low, with five games coming in at 7.5 runs or lower. There aren't a lot of massive favorites, with the Mariners (-174) and Yankees (-172) leading the way. Weather overall doesn't look like a massive factor, but it's worth noting it's turned cool(ish) on the east coast so perhaps the ball doesn't travel as well. Mets - Giants looks like a particular spot we may want to avoid, as it may not reach 70 degrees and winds could be blowing in at double-digits.
Pitching
Carlos Rodon, NYY at MIA ($10,100): Rodon hasn't been great, or efficient lately, lasting 5.1 innings or less in four of his last five. But that came against some pretty stiff competition (Toronto 2x, the Cubs, Phillies and Mets), which no one will confuse the Marlins with. Miami has a paltry 79 wRC+ against southpaws, adding a .285 wOBA and .110 ISO. Their K rate isn't high, but perhaps that works in Rodon's favor, allowing him to not chase strikeouts but rather work deeper into the game. There's quality start and win likelihood here.
Gavin Williams, CLE vs. MIN ($8,800): While they didn't trade a ton of offense yesterday, Minnesota clearly waved the white flag on their season, and we'll see how that sits in the locker room starting Friday. But this is an obvious spot to target that for multiple reasons. The Twins are below average against righties with a 99 wRC+ and 21.4 percent K rate. Their current roster is just 7-for-44 (.159) with a .385 OPS against Williams, and this game features the lowest run total on the slate. Williams can match his adversary in Joe Ryan while saving us $1,700).
Tyler Anderson, LAA vs. CWS ($7,300): I think we can target Clayton Kershaw for a cheap arm Friday with Tampa suffering a slew of injuries Thursday that will leave their lineup short handed here. Neither he nor Anderson are in fine form, so it's a risk, but the fact remains we're unlikely to target any White Sox bats, and Chicago's 25.1 percent K rate against lefties boosts Anderson's potential. Anderson has just one quality start since June 2, but the Angels do let him work in and out of potential damage, so five innings is very reasonable, giving him a shot at a 3x return or more.
Top Targets
We can't go overboard on RvL splits, as Matthew Liberatore is seeing his workload managed, but the Cardinals selling off their bullpen pieces yesterday makes that combination worth of targeting against. Manny Machado ($3,600) has a .378 wOBA, 149 wRC+ and .281 ISO and should get at least two plate appearances against Liberatore. That he has an eight-game hitting streak (18 hits total) further boosts appeal.
There's enough value Friday where we may be able to afford Shohei Ohtani ($4,700), who is in an 0-for-10 skid. It's even possible to stack Dodgers against Shane Baz, who has a 6.33 home ERA. He's been more vulnerable against righties (.376 wOBA), putting Mookie Betts ($3,400) on radars. And Freddie Freeman ($3,400) is clicking with 12 hits in his last nine.
He'll need to be confirmed in the lineup after missing two games, but George Springer ($3,500) has a .400 wOBA and 159 wRC+ off righties, and has at least 9.2 FDP in nine of his last 11 games.
Bargain Bats
We're not getting the usual Coors Field price boost, because well, the Pirates are a bad offense. That arguably makes Oneil Cruz ($3,400), their most expensive piece, a bargain in its own right. But Tommy Pham ($2,600) stands out as a true cheap option. He's riding a nine-game hitting streak (15 total hits), reaching 9.2 FDP or more in six of those.
We'll likely see low roster percentages from Red Sox bats against Hunter Brown, but the Astros' starter is scuffling a bit, allowing 14 runs over his last 20.0 innings. Jarren Duran ($3,300) has 11 hits and two homers during his six-game hitting streak, while carrying a .386 wOBA, 145 wRC+ and .234 ISO off righties. Roman Anthony ($2,700) has eight hits, five walks, and six runs over his last five, while posting a .412/162/.188 slash off opposite-handed arms.
Stacks to Consider
Rockies vs. Andrew Heaney (Pirates): Hunter Goodman ($3,200), Jordan Beck ($2,800), Ezequiel Tovar ($2,800)
It's pretty rare we get such favorable pricing in Denver from both sides, and while we know the offenses aren't trustworthy, the pitchers may be worse. Heaney had a 9.00 ERA in July, and has labored on the road all year with a 6.45 ERA. He's curiously been hit harder by lefties, but we'll fade that as the Rockies will likely line up right-handed heavy, and this stack gives us cheap options atop their lineup. Beck is a fine stand alone play, sporting a .404 wOBA, 151 wRC+ and .270 ISO off southpaws. Goodman's All Star form is fading, but he sits at .343/108/.272, giving us additional power potential. Tovar has hits in five of his last seven, including two homers, offering solid upside at this price.
Yankees vs. Janson Junk (Marlins): Jazz Chisholm ($3,700), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,200), Ben Rice ($3,100)
I don't find Friday's slate to be stack-friendly, and Junk doesn't present with targetable splits or bad numbers, so when in doubt, simply back one of the better offenses on the slate who come as heavy favorites. Stanton homered eight times last month and has the revenge narrative facing his old team. Chisholm has stolen four basses over his last two, giving multiple paths to fantasy scoring. And Rice's .359 wOBA, 131 wRC+ and .229 ISO against righties are the lowest numbers of this trio. It's not an elite matchup, and I probably prefer multiple mini-stacks on this slate, but there is potential.
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