The opening edition of our starting pitcher breakouts and busts candidates detailed the cases for four pitchers. This second edition of the series will provide another quartet, with two potential impact pitchers to go along with two veterans who are simply overpriced at their current ADP levels.
Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Breakouts
Sheenan posted some ridiculously good numbers last year. His 2.93 FIP was almost dead even with Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 2.94 FIP, a mark which ranked fifth among qualifying pitchers. Sheehan had a 0.97 WHIP, which was only slightly higher than Paul Skenes' NL-leading 0.95 mark in that category, and a 10.9 K/9, a pace that would have ranked second in the NL had Sheehan been a qualifier.
If those numbers aren't enough, Sheehan racked up elite percentiles in ERA (91st), fastball velocity (92nd) and swinging-strike rate (99th). Add to that strong percentile finishes in HR/9 (80th) and K/BB (77th), much of which stems from his superb slider and changeup, and it equals the makings of a truly dominant pitcher.
Those numbers were even better when Sheehan pitched at Dodger Stadium. Last year, he posted a 1.85 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9 and 1.6 BB/9 at Chavez Ravine. Part of that has to do with the Dodgers' strong defense, which is one of the best in the National League.
If Sheehan's health holds up, he could be a go-to pitcher on arguably the best team in baseball. To get him at his current No. 145 ADP level could make Sheehan an
The opening edition of our starting pitcher breakouts and busts candidates detailed the cases for four pitchers. This second edition of the series will provide another quartet, with two potential impact pitchers to go along with two veterans who are simply overpriced at their current ADP levels.
Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Breakouts
Sheenan posted some ridiculously good numbers last year. His 2.93 FIP was almost dead even with Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 2.94 FIP, a mark which ranked fifth among qualifying pitchers. Sheehan had a 0.97 WHIP, which was only slightly higher than Paul Skenes' NL-leading 0.95 mark in that category, and a 10.9 K/9, a pace that would have ranked second in the NL had Sheehan been a qualifier.
If those numbers aren't enough, Sheehan racked up elite percentiles in ERA (91st), fastball velocity (92nd) and swinging-strike rate (99th). Add to that strong percentile finishes in HR/9 (80th) and K/BB (77th), much of which stems from his superb slider and changeup, and it equals the makings of a truly dominant pitcher.
Those numbers were even better when Sheehan pitched at Dodger Stadium. Last year, he posted a 1.85 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9 and 1.6 BB/9 at Chavez Ravine. Part of that has to do with the Dodgers' strong defense, which is one of the best in the National League.
If Sheehan's health holds up, he could be a go-to pitcher on arguably the best team in baseball. To get him at his current No. 145 ADP level could make Sheehan an absolute steal on draft day.
Why isn't Valdez rated higher? He'd be an ace on many MLB rosters and could be the same for many fantasy baseball teams if things go well. This shows up in Valdez's RotoWire's ceiling/floor projections. His ceiling number include 18 wins, 243 strikeouts and a 0.90 WHIP.
Valdez's 2025 season wasn't as good as hoped, but that was due in part to Houston's defense not being as solid last year as it had been in previous years. That shouldn't be a problem on a Detroit squad that has great defense both in the infield and the outfield. It's so good that Javier Baez, who made the All-Star team last year in part due to superb defensive play, isn't even projected to make the Tigers starting roster.
Valdez will also benefit from A.J. Hinch's pitching management approach. Hinch takes the long view on his pitching staff and won't wear his pitchers out. Valdez is already incredibly consistent, being one of only five pitchers to post at least 900 innings over the past five years, and working for Hinch should only help that consistency.
The downside here is that Valdez will occasionally have some bad outings. The good news is the Tigers can give him plenty of run support and thus can win some of those games that might be lost on a lesser squad. Put this all together and Valdez should be one of the top No. 2 pitchers in baseball. To get someone like that at an ADP of 96 is a bargain and could be one of your best draft-day acquisitions.
Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Busts
There is no doubt that Greene has plenty of talent. Unfortunately for his potential fantasy managers, Greene also has a huge amount of volatility. Much of that is due to his durability. Greene has dealt with shoulder, hip and multiple groin injuries in his career. That makes him an injury question mark, at least from a perspective relative to other pitchers in his draft tier.
Those ailments are a major part of why Greene has a 71 percent reliability rating at Baseball Reference. This metric means that Greene has a 29 percent chance of regressing to the mean. To put that into perspective, let's compare this percentage to the four pitchers above and four pitchers below Greene in ADP.
8. Bryan Woo 75 percent
9. Logan Gilbert 77 percent
10. Logan Webb 81 percent
11. Max Fried 78 percent
12. Hunter Greene 71 percent
13. Cole Ragans 69 percent
14. Jacob deGrom 65 percent
15. Freddy Peralta 78 percent
16. Jesus Luzardo 75 percent
Six of the pitchers (the ones in bold) have a better reliability rating. In Logan Webb's case, that rating is 10 points higher.
That volatility also applies to Greene's potential floor. Per RotoWire's ceiling/floor projections, Greene has a floor that goes as low as a 5.84 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 31 home runs allowed.
Now factor in Great American Ball Park. This stadium has a 103-park factor per Statcast. That's tied for the third highest in that category over the past three years. The overall factor carries over to other categories. GABP is tied for third in runs, tied for seventh in OBP, and second in home runs with a very high 123 mark. In other words, this is not a place that helps pitchers.
Add the potential durability issues to the regression percentage, the less than friendly ballpark and a slew of pitchers with less volatility and it equals a lot of risk for someone at SP12. The suggestion here is to go with a higher percentage pick that early in a fantasy draft.
The key here is Sale's No. 44 ADP. A player has to do a lot to justify a pick that early in a draft. Sale was certainly above that level in his Cy Young-caliber campaign in 2024, but last year his numbers fell short of that elite level overall and were downright terrible early on.
It's not just a quality concern. Sale made only 21 starts last year and has posted more than that only once since the 2019 campaign. That might not be as big of a concern for a younger pitcher, but this is Sale's age-37 season.
He also won't get help from his home venue. Truist Park is a truly unfriendly park for pitchers (pun intended). Per Statcast, over the past three years Truist has the highest xBACON rate, the fourth highest BACON, and is tied for third highest hard-hit rate and tied for sixth highest run rate. Atlanta's defense is run of the mill and thus cannot do much to offset many of these factors.
These elements lead to Sale having a RotoWire floor projection of a 4.91 ERA and 1.70 WHIP.
So, let's add all of this up. Sale is old, showing some decline, probably can't be counted on for a large number of starts and won't get much help from the ballpark or the defense. That is not a combination one wants from a player with a No. 44 ADP.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Baseball News & Latest MLB Updates or follow @RotoWireMLB on X.
