This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks: May 21st Best Bets & Predictions
Season record 11-9, +0.239 Units
So much for Spring, it's miserable weather in the Midwest and Northeast. But it looks like most if not all the games will go off as scheduled. And hey, I've officially crawled back to the black by a shade. Let's try to keep it going.
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Mets at Red Sox Best Bets
The Mets' offense has hit a bit of a road bump in the last week as they've plated just 10 runs in the last 7 games. Pete Alonso is still in the midst of an excellent season with a .407 wOBA and 164 wRC+, but he hasn't homered since May 5th and is currently on the longest drought between taters in his career. He has blasted a couple of huge barrels in the past 3 games, but they were respectively a long out in cavernous LF in Yankee Stadium and a wind-battered single (and throw out at 2nd) off the Green "Mahnstah" in Fenway. Still, the Polar Bear pretty much carried the Mets offense for a while, but he's hitting just .157 since that last homer with an alarming 40% K%.
Juan Soto has gotten a ton of angry press in the past week or so, and he hasn't put up his typical numbers. But a Soto slump still beats most everyone else's hot streaks. During that same Alonso cold streak, Soto has hit just .214 but that's with 3 homers and a .370 OBP. He has gone 1 for his last 23 with RISP. Francisco Lindor has been generally good as well with a .328 OBP and 2 homers over that stretch, so a lot of what's going on is likely to regress at some point. Soto will knock runners in again, and Big Pete will drive everyone home when the homers return.
But the RISP issue is a real problem as they hit .212 overall as a team, 4th worst in MLB. They bat a middling.245 overall. If you think there's some clutch gene they lack, well New York sports radio talkers would concur. Personally I expect it to even out over time.
I don't expect that today, though. First off, the weather looks lousy. Expect high 40's and wind blowing in from right and center. Secondly, they face Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet. The lefty has gone 4-3 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.06 with a 29.1% K% and 13.4% SwStr%. He's gone at least 5 IP in all 10 of his starts, and yielded over 2 earned runs just once.
He'll need to give the Sox some length today as their bullpen had to cover 6.1 innings last night after Walker Buehler got booted for arguing balls and strikes. And that's on top of 4.1 IP the night before. Aroldis Chapman is likely unavailable after pitching both of those games and 3 of the last four (though only 13 pitches total in the last 2 games). Justin Slaten, Justin Wilson and Greg Weissert have also all pitched the last 2 games.
So my betting theme for this game is that Crochet goes deep and is effective against a struggling Mets offense that likely won't even start two of their hottest hitters as Brett Baty and Jeff McNeil often sit vs. lefties.
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MLB Best Bets
Garrett Crochet Over 18.5 Outs Recorded +150 (DraftKings)
Mets Under 3.5 Runs -115 (DraftKings)
