Twelve games comprise Tuesday's main slate at FanDuel, with our typical 7:05 p.m. EDT first pitch. Starting pitching is widely affordable, with Tyler Glasnow at $10,200 the only option priced in five figures, with six additional options priced at $9K or greater. This should allow us to build a solid and well rounded lineup.
The Phillies (-198) and Yankees (-196) are the slate's biggest favorites, followed by the Giants (-174). Athletics-Mariners is the only contest with a double-digit run total, while all other games come with totals of at least 8.0. Outside of heat, weather appears to be a nonfactor, as we're dry and not expecting much wind anywhere.
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Pitching
Max Fried, NYY vs. TB ($9,400): Glasnow is running hot and is a fine option if you can afford him, and I expect many to gravitate towards Jesus Luzardo at $9,800 given the matchup with the White Sox. While neither he nor Fried are in fine form, I'm going to back BvP numbers and shoot for lower roster percentages here. Fried has faced the Rays twice this season, allowing no runs and three hits across 14.2 innings. He's only struck out eight, so we'll need to bank on him finding something that's been missing. The current Rays roster is just 5-for-46 (.109) with a .272 OPS off him.
Sonny Gray, STL vs. MIA ($8,900): Another pitcher in pretty bad form, so it's a risk to roster him. Since Gray's complete game, one-hit, 11-strikeout showing June 27, he's been downright bad. He has an 8.34 ERA in July, but it curiously comes with a 2.42 xFIP and 10.7 K/9. Miami hasn't been as bad as we'd like to think, ranking 14th with a 103 wRC+ off righties and adding a .319 wOBA, but we're unlikely to target their bats, so we'll target a bounce-back effort from the hurler facing them instead.
Lucas Giolito, BOS at MIN ($8,500): Let's go three for three with arms in poor form. Giolito has allowed nine runs in his last 9.1 innings, but those outings came against Philadelphia and the Cubs, offenses far superior to the Twins, especially if they're still without Byron Buxton. Giolito has been better on the road with a 3.30 ERA (3.98 xFIP), and his strikeouts are up away from Fenway too at 8.4 per nine. Minnesota ranks 21st with a league-average 100 wRC+ off righties. This can also be an exercise in asking yourself if you're willing to go with anyone lower down the salary list, and for me, the answer is no.
Top Targets
With the high run total in Sacramento, it's an obvious place to start. Seattle's Logan Evans has struggled on the road, where he's surrendered a .473 wOBA and 1.124 OPS to lefties. Nick Kurtz ($4,200) feels almost too obvious, as the rookie's riding a 14-game hitting streak while also boasting an obscene .495 wOBA, 222 wRC+ and .420 ISO off righties.
Staying in Sacramento, Athletics' starter Luis Severino has labored at home while being terrific on the road. His splits suggest we target righties, who have a .378 wOBA and .820 OPS against him. They're far more volatile, but Julio Rodriguez ($3,500) and Randy Arozarena ($3,400) offer power upside, though the are a combined 1-for-15 off Severino.
Houston's Jason Alexander has been torched by lefties, allowing a .434 wOBA and 1.040 OPS. While both are scuffling, Washington's James Wood ($3,600) and CJ Abrams ($3,500) are priced favorably to target upside in GPPs.
Bargain Bats
I did a double take, but Luis Robert ($2,900) surprisingly has a .418 wOBA, 171 wRC+ and .282 ISO off lefties. Luzardo is rumored to be tipping pitches and has allowed 17 runs in his last five starts. Robert has 13 hits and 11 RBI in his last 11 games.
Loyal readers know I don't trust Atlanta for squat at this point, and given that they exploded for 10 runs last night, they're likely to get shut out Tuesday. The lineup's had minimal BvP success in this matchup, as their roster is 17-for-79 (.215) off Seth Lugo, but they still feature options that are just too cheap for me to ignore. Michael Harris ($2,700) is running hot with 11 hits in his last six despite last night's 0-for-4. Jurickson Profar ($2,900) has been on base 14 times in his last seven.
Washington's Michael Soroka is allowing a .374 wOBA to lefties on the road and just a .196 wOBA to righties. Houston's lineup is very short on left-handed bats, and this could be reaching, but Taylor Trammell ($2,400) and Jacob Melton ($2,600) allow for very cheap options to target those splits, while likely occupying meaningful spots in the Astros' lineup.
Stacks to Consider
Royals vs. Erick Fedde (Atlanta): Bobby Witt ($3,600), Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,200), Maikel Garcia ($3,000)
Fedde has been torched of late, allowing 26 runs and 33 hits across his last five starts, spanning just 17.2 innings, and a change in uniform isn't likely to fix that. We saw 17 runs scored in this matchup Monday, and the heat in Kansas City is ripe for more offense. Fedde's splits suggest we want to target lefties, something the Royals are short on sans Jac Caglianone and with Pasquantino managing just six hits in his last seven, though two of those are homers. Witt and Garcia, however, are hot. Witt has eight hits during his seven-game hitting streak, five for extra bases, scoring seven times. Garcia gives us three-position flexibility, a middle-of-the-order bat, and 11 hits, eight runs and five RBI over his last seven games, reaching double-digit fantasy points six times. Salvador Perez ($3,100) is in play too if he's in the lineup.
Angels vs. Patrick Corbin (Rangers): Taylor Ward ($3,100), Jo Adell ($3,000), Logan O'Hoppe ($2,900)
There are far more obvious stacking targets (Phillies, Mets), but we can target a cheap offense with low roster rates against Corbin, who doesn't scare anyone, though he does induce soft contact. These three all have plus numbers against lefties. O'Hoppe has a .388 wOBA, 150 wRC+ and .235 ISO, Ward sits at .380/150/.320 and Adell at .358/130/.292. Zach Neto ($3,300) is in play as well if you have the money, as he's gone 4-for-6 with a homer off Corbin, particularly as a swap to Adell, who isn't swinging it well right now.
