This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
Last week was my first losing week of the season on PrizePicks, but a 1-2-1 week is far from a disaster. That brings my season record to 29-11-1, and I couldn't have hoped for better results in my first season on PrizePicks. All you need is to hit at a 60 percent clip to be successful, which is a much simpler task with all the props they offer for baseball. That leaves some of these totals in vulnerable spots because it's simply too much to keep up with for these sites. With that in mind, let's look at our four favorite plays this week!
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Casey Mize, DET vs. PIT: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
Mize hasn't cleared this prop much this season, but this is an opportunity to get to the seventh inning. The most impactful variable is this home matchup with Pittsburgh. Not only is Comerica Park one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, but the Pirates rank 29th or 30th in runs scored, wOBA and OPS.
Those subpar team statistics should bode well for a breakout pitcher like Mize. This righty has a 2.95 ERA and 1.28 WHIP while allowing four runs or fewer in all 11 starts. Most importantly, Mize threw 90 and 104 pitches in his two most recent outings. That means the century mark in pitches is in play, which should allow Mize to cruise through six innings against one of the worst offenses in baseball. Not to mention, Mize has allowed just four total runs in his four home starts en route to a 1.54 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Ben Brown, CHC vs. MIL: More Than 5.0 Strikeouts
This is a risky recommendation, but the swing-and-miss stuff from Brown is undeniable. Despite an ugly 5.71 ERA, Brown has at least five strikeouts in 11 of his last 13 starts, while generating a 10.5 K/9 rate in that span. That strikeout stuff has been even sharper recently, with Brown totaling an 11.4 K/9 rate across his last seven starts. This righty hasn't even pitched well recently, and he's never finished below four strikeouts all season. He's also due for some positive regression, registering a 3.30 FIP and 3.39 xFIP.
A matchup with Milwaukee might look concerning on the surface, but this is not your typical mashing Brewers team. On the contrary, Milwaukee ranks 23rd in wOBA and 27th in xwOBA. The 22 percent team K rate is also nothing to write home about, with Brown throwing six scoreless innings in their one matchup a month ago. He only had four strikeouts in that start, but Brown should reach six strikeouts at ease if he reaches the sixth inning again.
Matthew Liberatore, STL at CWS: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
Much like Brown, the recent form doesn't tell the whole story for Liberatore. This righty has allowed 17 total runs across his last three starts, but was quietly one of the best pitchers in the NL before that. In fact, Liberatore allowed two runs or fewer in his previous eight starts, tallying a 1.91 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in that span. Most importantly, Liberatore surpassed 17.5 outs in eight of his first 10 starts before this mini slide.
It should be much easier to recapture that early-season form against an offense like this. The White Sox have been the worst offense in baseball over the last two years, ranked 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA in that span. The oddsmakers agree, as Chicago is projected to score just four runs in this game, with St. Louis entering this game as a -150 favorite.
Jose Altuve, HOU at ATH: More Than 6.5 Fantasy Score (vs. JP Sears)
This is our only hitting selection in this article, but Altuve is starting to get hot. The perennial All-Star is in one of his amazing stretches, with Altuve accruing a .352 AVG, .602 SLG and .988 OPS across his last 23 outings. He's also slaughtered southpaws throughout his career, compiling a .399 OBP and .915 OPS against them since 2023.
That's certainly been the case against Sears when evaluating the BvP stats, with Altuve posting a .458 OBP and 1.266 OPS in 24 at-bats against the lefty. Those are some of the best BvP numbers in baseball, but it becomes really scary for Sears when looking at his recent form. The lefty has an 8.78 ERA and 1.68 WHIP across his last six starts while amassing a 6.00 ERA and 1.38 WHIP at home this year.
