This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
We've reached our first elimination game in this round of the playoffs. That means we're getting close to the finish line, and it's difficult to know what to expect. We will see the Yankees attempt to fight off elimination against the Blue Jays. They certainly have an uphill battle, given how those first two games played out. In any case, it should make for a sensational slate, so let's go ahead and talk about some of our favorite PrizePicks plays on this short card.
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Logan Gilbert, SEA at DET: More Than 6.5 Strikeouts
There aren't many starters we trust to go deep into games at this point in the postseason, but Gilbert is a different animal. This guy is the ace for the Mariners and should be leaned on heavily in this critical Game 3. The righty has a ridiculous 3.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP since the start of last season and has taken his strikeout stuff to another level this year. Gilbert has an 11.9 K/9 rate this season while striking out at least six batters in 19 of 25 starts.
That strikeout stuff was on full display in his two regular-season matchups with the Tigers, as he tallied a 2.61 ERA and 16.5 K/9 rate in those outings. He had at least nine Ks in both of those, and this Detroit lineup has been a disaster for months. The Motor City Kitties ranked 27th with a 24 percent strikeout rate while sitting in the bottom 10 in every important offensive statistic in the second half.
Shane Bieber, TOR at NYY: Fewer Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Bieber was a tremendous trade acquisition for Toronto, but this is a tough spot. This former All-Star has made only seven starts since his return from the IL, failing to reach 100 pitches in any of them. More importantly, he has six or fewer strikeouts in six straight starts while sporting a 3.93 ERA and 7.3 K/9 rate in that span. That's subpar strikeout stuff, and we'd expect Bieber to have a short leash in this potential clincher for the Blue Jays.
This is more about the matchup than the pitcher, because facing New York in Yankee Stadium is a scary proposition. This team was Top 5 in every major offensive category and is typically better in that tiny ballpark. The .780 team OPS at home was the fourth-best mark in baseball, and you know these Yankee bats will be tuned in staring down an elimination barrel. Not to mention, Bieber hasn't cracked four strikeouts in his last two matchups with the Yanks.
Jazz Chisholm, NYY vs. TOR: More Than 4.5 Fantasy Score (vs. Shane Bieber)
Aaron Judge would be an obvious choice to clear his fantasy score, but we're getting good value for Jazz. This flashy infielder had 31 homers and 31 steals in a sensational season while sporting a .813 OPS. What we really love are his splits, registering a .336 OBP, .508 SLG and .843 OPS against right-handers. He also closed the regular season with an .868 OPS across his last 44 outings and should get plenty of RBI opportunities behind all of these studs.
We already discussed the poor strikeout stuff from Bieber, and that's a massive factor for a guy like Chisholm. Jazz's strikeouts are one of the only things holding him back, but that shouldn't be an issue here. It's not like Bieber has been mowing down bats either, totaling a 4.03 ERA across his last five starts. All we need is Jazz to have one extra-base hit or steal a bag after getting on, and he'll clear this number.
Jorge Polanco, SEA at DET: More Than 5.0 Fantasy Score (vs. Jack Flaherty)
Many people were surprised to see Polanco go deep twice in the Game 2 win, but anyone who's been watching him in the second half wasn't. This second baseman was quietly one of the best hitters after the All-Star break, accruing a .339 AVG, .688 SLG and 1.075 OPS across his final 32 games. We're talking about a guy who has a .260 career AVG and .786 OPS against righties as well.
Flaherty can have some nasty stuff, but he's not someone we're worried about right now. The Tigers pitcher finished the regular season with a 4.64 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He also had a 5.22 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across his final five regular-season starts. He's the pitcher most likely to get shelled on this slate with how hot Seattle has been, and we have to trust their hottest bat against him.
