We have another short slate Thursday, but there are potentially profitable PrizePicks opportunities throughout the afternoon and evening. We highlight four of our favorites below:
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Kodai Senga, NYM vs. ATL: More Than 1.5 Walks Allowed
Senga is in the midst of another fine season that includes a 7-4 record and 2.30 ERA, but he also has a 4.5 BB/9 that is arguably the main culprit whenever he does run into some trouble. The right-hander has issued at least two walks in five straight outings, and in 16 of his 18 starts overall.
Atlanta has been the most patient of any team against right-handed pitching on the road since the All-Star break, sporting an MLB-high 11.5 percent walk rate in that span. Therefore, this prop certainly seems to have a solid chance of hitting if Senga is in the game for at least the 4-5 innings that have been his norm recently.
Riley Greene, DET at MIN: More Than 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
Greene has been on the wrong side of luck frequently when putting the ball in play thus far in August. The lefty swinging slugger has the unusual combination of a very elevated 28.6 percent line-drive rate — typically one of the main factors of a higher batting average — and just a .190 average in that span of 44 plate appearances.
While a 31.8 percent strikeout rate in that sample certainly has a part to play in his struggles, so does a low .259 BABIP that's due for some correction soon, given how well Greene is squaring up when he does make contact. His luck appeared to be changing a bit recently before an 0-for-3 day Wednesday, but Thursday's matchup against Bailey Ober, who's allowed a .281 average, .348 wOBA, 2.3 HR/9 and 5.55 FIP to lefty bats at home could help him to a productive day.
Greene has a .313 average and .952 OPS against Ober over 16 career encounters, and a .311 average, 1.029 OPS, .432 wOBA and 15.4 wRAA against righties on the road. Meanwhile, Twins relievers have pitched to a 5.04 ERA, .299 BAA and .364 wOBA against left-handed hitters in the second half of the season.
Tarik Skubal, DET at MIN: Less Than 8 Pitcher Strikeouts
Skubal is having another outstanding campaign and currently carries a career-low 2.35 ERA and 0.86 WHIP across 23 starts. His 11.6 K/9 is also a career-best figure, but he's fallen below eight strikeouts in seven of his last 12 starts, including three of the last five. This prop has risen from 6.5 since it was first released Wednesday night, and it therefore changes my perspective a bit.
Skubal did mow through the Twins for 13 strikeouts at Comerica Park back on June 29, but his arm figures to be a bit more fatigued at this point in the season, as his recent downward trend in Ks might be implying. Additionally, Minnesota has been a lot tougher for lefties to strike out at home since the All-Star break, as the Twins have a modest 18.9 percent figure in that split.
There's undoubtedly some risk here, but given Minnesota is averaging just 7.7 strikeouts per home game this season and Skubal has had his share of issues at Target Field in his career (0-2, 4.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .749 OPS, 8.5 K/9 in seven starts), it's worth considering.
Ezequiel Tovar, COL vs. ARI: More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
This game carries a projected total of as much as 12.5 runs, a massive number that includes a projection of 5.6 runs for Colorado. While there are certainly some Arizona hitters to target as well considering the D-Backs' 7.3-run projection, Tovar is a very solid option against struggling southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez.
Tovar already comes in with a strong history against Rodriguez, having gotten to him for a .375 average and .944 OPS in nine career plate appearances, a sample in which he's struck out only once. Tovar has also wreaked absolute havoc at Coors, and especially against lefties, a split in which he owns a .520 average, 1.411 OPS and .594 wOBA over an admittedly small sample of 28 plate appearances.
While those numbers are certainly inflated somewhat, it bears noting they're only an embellishment of an excellent career track record in that split, as Tovar has a .308 average, .861 OPS and .368 wOBA versus southpaws at home over his 223 career PAs against lefties at Coors. For his part, Rodriguez has encountered some issues in two career starts there, pitching to a .298 BAA and 1.59 WHIP.
Rodriguez has also pitched to a .303 BAA and allowed a .379 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road, a split where he also has a 1.7 HR/9. He'll come into Thursday's start in a funk, having pitched to a 5.91 xFIP over 22.2 post-All-Star-break innings thus far. Tovar is averaging 2.0 hits + runs + RBI per game, putting this prop very much in play.
