This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
Thursday brings us an entertaining all-day slate, and there are potentially profitable PrizePicks opportunities throughout the afternoon and evening. We highlight four of our favorites below:
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Andy Pages, LAD vs. NYM: More Than 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI/ More Than 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
Pages is well on his way to a breakout season, as he'll enter Thursday with a .290 average, .838 OPS, 22 extra-base hits and 39 RBI among his core numbers. The 24-year-old is averaging 2.3 hits + runs + RBI per game, and he's averaging a robust 14.4 fantasy points in his last five games alone.
Pages draws a matchup that's been good to him thus far in his nascent career, as he's tormented Mets left-handed starter David Peterson for a .714 average in seven career plate appearances, a sample that includes a homer and only one strikeout. Pages already checks in with a .270 average against left-handed pitching at home as well.
Peterson has given up a .257 average to right-handed hitters overall, and he has a 4.0 BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9 against that handedness on the road. The Dodgers are projected for 5.4 runs (up from 5.1 runs at the open) for Thursday's game, further fueling these two picks.
Max Fried, NYY vs. CLE: More Than 36.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score
Fried has taken to the AL in stellar fashion, as he's produced a 7-1 record, 1.92 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 0.6 HR/9 across his first 12 starts as a member of the Yankees. The veteran left-hander is actually coming off his only poor start of the season, which came against a team he knows well from his NL days in the Dodgers.
That outlier came on the road, but Fried has been practically unhittable at Yankee Stadium thus far, where he'll toe the rubber Thursday. The talented southpaw has a 3-0 record, 1.69 ERA and 0.5 HR/9 across 37.1 innings in the Bronx, making him a very appealing option against a Guardians team that's struggled against lefties on the road.
Cleveland comes in with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate, .219 average, .550 OPS, .255 wOBA and -7.6 wRAA against southpaws on the road since May 1, a sample of 163 plate appearances. The Guardians are also averaging a modest 3.3 runs per game in the last three contests, and Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana, the only two Cleveland hitters to have faced Fried previously, are a combined 1-for-11 with five strikeouts against him.
Fried has also fantasy scores of 40, 45 and 50 in three of his last five starts, another factor in his favor when it comes to this prop.
Matthew Liberatore, STL vs. KC: More Than 4 Pitcher Strikeouts
Liberatore is another talented lefty that checks into a favorable matchup Thursday coming off a rocky outing. The 25-year-old, who's sitting on a career-best 3.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, gave up five runs over five innings to the Rangers in that start, although he still recorded five strikeouts as well.
Liberatore has a relatively modest 7.8 K/9 overall this season, but he's still recorded at least five strikeouts in six of 11 starts. His fastball is averaging over 94 mph, and he's displaying career-best control as evidenced by his 1.3 BB/9. Thursday, he faces a Royals team whose current hitters have only mustered a .229 average against him while also striking out eight times in 39 career plate appearances.
KC has a respectable 20.6 percent strikeout rate – along with a paltry .283 wOBA – against lefties on the road since May 1, but this is a number Liberatore has proven capable of eclipsing more often than not. It's also worth noting he's been especially sharp at home, where he holds a 3-0 record and 1.69 ERA, and where he already has seven- and eight-strikeout tallies this season.
Aaron Judge, NYY vs. CLE: More Than 0.5 Total Bases/More Than 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
All of Judge's offensive props are in play any time he steps on the field, as the MVP frontrunner is a proverbial machine when it comes to virtually every counting stat. He could be primed for another one of his prolific performances Thursday against Guardians starter Slade Cecconi, who enters with a 5.28 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, massive 2.9 HR/9, 17.8 percent barrel rate allowed and a .403 xwOBA.
That entire collection of numbers portends plenty of trouble against a hitter the caliber of Judge, who's averaging 2.8 total bases and 3.2 hits + runs + RBI per game. Judge has naturally thrived against either handedness of pitcher, and he owns a .326 average and .442 wOBA against righties at Yankee Stadium.
The only other previous encounter between Judge and Cecconi resulted in a home run, and the Yankees are projected for 5.4 runs in Thursday night's matchup. With both of these props easily within Judge's reach, they're both very much in play.
