Top MLB Betting Picks for July 11: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-2 ( -1.15 units) (parlays will not count for or against record, but will for units)
Season 86-90-1 (-7.11 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Friday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Watch the heat, as always, in outdoor parks for totals.
Home Favorites - Reds -235 vs Rockies, Tigers -215 vs Mariners
Road Favorites - Phillies -160 at Athletics
Totals - Blue Jays/Athletics 10.5, Twins/Pirates 6.5, Mariners/Tigers 6.5
Line Movement -
Tigers -28, Reds -27
Pirates/Twins 7.0 to 6.5, Rays/Red Sox 8.5 to 9
Bullpen Rankings (updated 7/1/25; xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Braves, Orioles, Padres, Astros, Brewers, Rays, Rangers, Pirates, Cardinals, Twins). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Nationals, Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays, Rockies, Mariners, Angels, Tigers, Guardians, White Sox). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Betting Insights
Whenever I see Paul Skenes on the slate, the first thing I look at is the F3 team total for the opposing team. As long as it is close to EVEN money it is in play.
Skenes is pretty much an automatic to mow through the lineup first time through. In 19 starts, he has allowed 3 runs (2 unearned) and the Twins are just 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days.
Skenes has been on a pitch count so this is the best way to play him right now.
MLB Best Bets: Twins UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
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Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Best Bets and Predictions
This is the biggest pitching mismatch on the slate with Ranger Suarez against Ryan Bergert. Suarez has turned into one of the best pitchers in the National League with a 7-2 record, 1.99 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The biggest concern is that he has allowed 5 homers in his last 6 starts, but he has been able to limit base runners. Bergert returns from a forearm injury and last pitched on June 24th. He usually only goes 4 innings per start so expect a short leash.
MLB Best Bets: Phillies -1.5 runs for 1 unit (Caesars +108)
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Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Best Bets and Predictions
Usually the worst pitching matchup on the slate is looking at a total of 9 runs or higher. But with Lance McCullers Jr and Jack Leiter the total comes in at just 8.0 or 8.5. This shows tremendous value on the OVER with two pitchers that have an ERA over 4.50 each in their last 7 starts.
McCullers had looked sharp until his last three starts in which he has allowed 5 homeruns in his last 3 starts for a 8.16 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. Leiter has a 6.17 ERA and 1.71 WHIP.
MLB Best Bets: Rangers/Astros OVER 8 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -115)
MLB Picks Today Recap
- Twins UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 1 unit (Caesars +108)
- Rangers/Astros OVER 8 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -115)
