Top MLB Betting Picks for July 6: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 2-1 (+0.94 units) (parlays will not count for or against record, but will for units)
Season 81-86-1 (-8.37 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Sunday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Watch the heat, as always, in outdoor parks for totals.
Bullpen Rankings (updated 7/1/25; xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Braves, Orioles, Padres, Astros, Brewers, Rays, Rangers, Pirates, Cardinals, Twins). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Nationals, Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays, Rockies, Mariners, Angels, Tigers, Guardians, White Sox). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Insights
We might as well go back to this one again, as the Houston Astros have been taking value in this series. The Los Angeles Dodgers are overpriced home favorites with RHP Emmet Sheehan against RHP Ryan Gusto. I have the pitching matchup slightly in favor of the Astros and getting them at a nice road 'dog price is the play here.
MLB Best Bets: Astros ML for 1 unit (BetMGM +165)
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners Best Bets and Predictions
As soon as I saw this pitching matchup (Pirates RHP Paul Skenes versus Mariners RHP George Kirby), I knew I wanted a piece of the UNDER as long as it was 6.5 runs or more.
Well, there was a 7.0 out there upon opening and I quickly pounced on it. The UNDER is 5-1 in Skenes' last six starts. The UNDER is 7-3 in Seattle's last 10 home games, and 11-4-1 in their 16 at T-Mobile Park.
Skenes has allowed just three runs the first time through the lineup in 18 starts, and the Pirates should be able to scrape together 1-2 runs early and grab the win.
Yesterday's game was 1-0, and I gave that play out on VSIN's Saturday Live Bet show along with the Astros and Tigers ML.
MLB Best Bets: Pirates/Mariners UNDER 6.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -112)
Mariners UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -120)
Pirates ML for 0.5 unit (ESPN Bet +105)
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San Francisco Giants vs Athletics Best Bets and Predictions
Athletics LHP Jacob Lopez has been an underrated pitcher, and I think we can take advantage of it on both the side and total. I usually steer away from multiple plays in a single game because of variance in baseball, but I think the side and total represent tremendous value.
The Giants have been terrible against left-handed pitching, and near the bottom in wRC+ all season. RHP Hayden Birdsong has been getting knocked around lately, allowing five home runs in his last four starts along with an 8.35 ERA and 1.69 WHIP.
This line feels significantly inflated based on the earlier results this season and all of the OVERs.
MLB Best Bets: Giants/Athletics UNDER 10.0 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -102); Athletics ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
MLB Picks Today Recap
- Astros ML for 1 unit (BetMGM +165)
- Pirates/Mariners UNDER 6.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -112)
- Mariners UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -120)
- Pirates ML for 0.5 unit (ESPN Bet +105)
- Giants/Athletics UNDER 10.0 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -102)
- Athletics ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
