On the eve of March, Saturday once again brings us another thrilling day of college hoops action. Here are my predictions for a trio of games featuring teams that we'll likely see dancing in March.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Texas 
at Texas A&M
Off the top, the largest advantage in this matchup belongs to Texas' frontcourt. The Longhorns have the 16th-highest offensive rebounding percentage nationally, while the Aggies' defense sits all the way down at 261st in rebounding percentage.
Similarly, Texas is among the best at drawing contact, boasting the second-highest free-throw attempt rate nationally. This again plays against one of A&M's weaknesses, as the Aggies rank 194th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. The Longhorns have made 78 percent of their foul shots during conference play, so this is an area that has a decent chance to burn the Aggies.
When playing in the other direction, Texas hasn't been great overall defensively, but it's at least strong on the glass, ranking 49th in rebounding percentage, including the fourth-best mark during league play. This should help the Longhorns' cause on Saturday, as Texas A&M ranks 92nd in offensive rebounding percentage.
Texas lost by four points when these teams first met in mid-January, despite recording its worst effective field goal percentage of the conference season. Texas A&M's defense has allowed SEC opponents to make 54 percent of two-point shots, the fifth-worst in the league, so it's reasonable to suggest that the Longhorns will likely shoot better on Saturday.
Perhaps Texas' defense will get torched, but I like our odds of seeing the Longhorns and their elite offense get revenge on Saturday. I'm taking the Longhorns.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas +3.5
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Alabama 
at Tennessee 
It's safe to say most college hoops fans are well aware of Alabama's offensive reputation and Tennessee's defensive reputation, which leaves us in a stalemate at one end of the court. Even still, while the Tide's offense holds a slight edge in adjusted efficiency, other metrics suggest otherwise.
Specifically, Tennessee is among the best rebounding teams nationally, including on defense. During the SEC conference season, the Vols rank second in the league in defensive rebounding percentage. Over the same span, the Tide's offense ranks fourth-worst in rebounding. The more interesting part of the note, however, is that KenPom's data suggest that Alabama's offensive efficiency is more strongly correlated with an increase in offensive rebounding percentage than with an increase in effective field goal percentage, a seemingly rare situation. If Tennessee can secure the glass, it seems to have an excellent shot at winning.
In the other direction, Tennessee leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. And, following the same train of thought as above, it's worth highlighting the fact that its offensive production is strongly correlated with rebounding, nearly as strongly as effective field goal percentage. This is the last thing Alabama wants to see, as the Tide rarely boxes out on defense, ranking 262nd in defensive rebounding percentage.
Tennessee has won five straight games against Alabama. The last time the Tide defeated the Vols was December 2021. I'm not one for blindly following a trend like this, but it seems head coach Rick Barnes has figured out a blueprint to limit Alabama's explosive scoring under head coach Nate Oats.
All things considered, I'm taking the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Tennessee -4.5
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Gonzaga 
at Saint Mary's
The top two teams in the WCC face off in what looks like a tight matchup on paper.
That said, a closer look reveals significant differences that may determine the outcome.
First, Gonzaga causes turnovers. Saint Mary's does not. The Bulldogs rank 15th nationally in defensive turnover percentage, while the Gaels rank 269th.
On a related note, Saint Mary's gives the ball away. Gonzaga does not. The Gaels rank 176th in offensive turnover percentage, while the Bulldogs rank 12th. For Saint Mary's, the problem is even worse than it appears. The Gaels rank 313th in non-steal turnover percentage, suggesting that most of their turnovers are caused by unforced errors.
Additionally, Gonzaga is simply better in the paint. Since the conference season began, the Bulldogs lead the league in both two-point field goal percentage (59 percent) and two-point field goal percentage allowed (46 percent).
Saint Mary's has had a great season, and it may very well win this game, but my money's on history repeating itself, as Gonzaga won the first matchup in late January, 73-65. I'm taking the Bulldogs
College Basketball Best Bet: Gonzaga -2.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Texas +3.5
- Tennessee -4.5
- Gonzaga -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
