CFB Picks: Clemson vs Louisville Best Bets
It's Week 12, and we have an Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) battle on Friday night at L&N Federal Credit United Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Tigers (4-5, 3-4 ACC) and the Cardinals (7-2, 4-2) square off with very different goals. Louisville, ranked No. 19 in The Associated Press' Top 25 poll, is looking to bounce back after a loss to visiting California last week in overtime. The Cardinals likely have their ACC Championship Game hopes on life support, but they're still mathematically alive. The Tigers? They're just trying to survive and qualify for bowl eligibility.
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Clemson vs Louisville Betting Odds for Week 12
Spread: Clemson +2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Louisville -2.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 50.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 51.5 (-BetMGM)
Moneyline: Clemson +115 (Caesars Sportsbook); Louisville -140 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Clemson vs Louisville Betting Picks for Week 12
It's a stunning fall for Clemson, as it entered the season as a top-5 team with College Football Playoff and national championship aspirations. Now, it is struggling just to qualify for a trip to somewhere like the Birmingham, Gasparilla or Pop-Tarts Bowl. My, how the mighty have fallen. I wonder how Tyler from Spartanburg feels about that.
The Tigers actually played in a bowl game already this season. Clemson hosted Florida State in the Disappointment Bowl in Death Valley last weekend, and the Seminoles are sinking like a stone compared to the Tigers. Clemson won 24-10 to keep its collective head above water, covering as a 1.5-point favorite. It bounced back after a stunning 46-45 loss to Duke two weeks ago.
Against the 'Noles, Clemson rushed for just 98 yards, while throwing for 221 yards. The Tigers had 16 first downs, while FSU had 110 rushing yards, 250 passing yards and 19 first downs. The key is Clemson's plus-2 turnover deficit, recording a fumble record and an interception. QB Cade Klubnik completed 20-of-27 passes for 221 yards and a touchdown while also running for a score. RB Adam Randall was the best of the lot on the ground, posting 48 yards on 15 totes. WR Antonio Williams registered six grabs for 62 yards and a TD, too.
The Cardinals suffered a 29-26 OT loss against Cal last Saturday as an 18.5-point favorite, as the Over (48.5) cashed. It was a seesaw battle against Cal, as the teams were never separated by more than one score at any point. QB Miller Moss didn't have his best game, throwing for 203 yards and no TDs with a pick, although he did run for a score. RB Keyjuan Brown did his part, rolling for 136 yards on 14 carries, while WR Caullin Lacy ended the game with 60 yards.
Louisville has alternated non-covers and covers in each of the past seven games dating back to Sept. 20, failing to cover against Cal. The Over cashed against Cal, and it has alternated the Over with the Under in the past four outings. Louisville has rolled up 24 or more points in every game this season, including its most notorious win, a 24-21 victory over then-No. 2 Miami.
It's actually a bit stunning that the line is so low here, but that's likely a byproduct of Clemson winning last week and Louisville stubbing its toe at home. But the best play is taking Moss and the Cards to bounce back.
Clemson vs Louisville Expert Pick: Louisville -2.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Clemson vs Louisville Predictions for Week 12
The total trends in this ACC battle are a bit less clear. Louisville cashed the Over last week in the OTL to Cal, and the Over is 3-1 in the past four games at home, so that's a trend we can sink our teeth into a bit.
The Cardinals are averaging 32.8 points per game (PPG) in the past four games at home, while allowing 25.0 PPG in the span. Louisville has scored at least 26 points in each of its six games at home, too.
For Clemson, the offense has been a bit more erratic this season, although it has shown some signs of life lately. The Tigers are good for 38 or more points in three of the past five games, and it's no surprise, but the Over is also 3-2 in the past five games.
Louisville won last season's game 33-21 in Death Valley as a 10.5-point underdog, as the Under (62.5) cashed, an upset engineered by current New Orleans Saints QB Tyler Shough. The Tigers might have revenge on their minds, but really, we don't know what their mindset is. They've lost five games, but Clemson has played its best football on the road, winning the past two ACC away games at NorthCarolina (38-10 on Oct. 4) and at Boston College (41-10 on Oct. 11). The Under is 2-1 in three games on the road for the Tigers, however.
We're going to lean low on the total, but go with a half-unit play at most. The better play is taking the side with the home team.
Score Prediction: Louisville 27, Clemson 20
Clemson vs Louisville Player Prop Picks for Friday, November 14
QB Miller Moss, Louisville - Under 1.5 Passing TDs (FanDuel Sportsbook)
While the Tigers are very giving through the air, allowing 245.1 passing yards per game to rank 106th in the country, Moss has struggled to consistently find the end zone passing the pill. He went without a TD pass against Cal, his first time without a scoring strike since the 40-17 win over Bowling Green back on Sept. 20. He has thrown for two or more TDs in a game three times, all coming in succession from Sept. 27 to Oct. 17. Outside of that run, he had one or no TD passes in the other six outings.
QB Cade Klubnik, Clemson - Over 261.5 Passing Yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
If Clemson has done one thing well this season, it's pass the football. It ranks 15th in the country with 288.4 passing yards per game. Klubnik didn't have his best passing game last time out, going for just 221 yards and a single TD strike, while also running for a score. However, before that, he passed for a career-high 385 yards against Duke, and he had 280 yards in the previous win at Boston College. In the past two games on the road, he has averaged 267.0 passing yards, and he should be able to go over the mark here.
