College Capper: Free College Football Picks this Week
Chris' Picks
I took a bit of an unconventional approach last week, at least for me, and it yielded minor success and a winning week. Let's stop highlighting road favorites or marquee games, let's pick bad teams to beat worse teams essentially straight up. We hit three of those. Florida and UCLA let me down. I can live with the UCLA loss, but DJ Lagway's turnover prowess resurfacing hurt.
No clue what's going to make the cut below out of the eight or nine leans I have, so who knows if last week's strategy is something we can build on. But even just picking up one game on the overall record after two really bad weeks felt good. We march on.
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Arkansas (+5.5) at LSU
There's probably a better than 50-50 chance that come Saturday afternoon (12:45 p.m. EDT kickoff), I'm going to hate myself for choosing this one. Arkansas hasn't won since Week 2, and its defense is a sieve, allowing 39.9 points in a seven-game losing streak. LSU counters by averaging 19.6 points in games not against Southeastern Louisiana. The Hawgs are off a bye, should have Taylen Green healthy under center, and who knows what the Tigers are doing after benching Garrett Nussmeier last week. Four of the last five in this rivalry have been decided by a field goal, and this line is falling, so clearly, early betting is thinking along the same lines as I. LSU just seems more dysfunctional at this point.
Marshall (-7.5) at Georgia State
I'm going right back to this well until it loses, and maybe even beyond this week if it does, as the Panthers are on the road for both of their final two games beyond Saturday. Georgia State is 1-8 SU and ATS, beating only Murray State, and just two of those eight losses were by seven points. We're right at that number. It's all about their pathetic run defense that's allowed 27 touchdowns, 5.2 ypc and 218.2 ypg, the third highest mark in the nation. Marshall is limping, losing two straight, but they've rushed for 223 or more yards in four of five. Of minor concern, the Herd are 1-3 on the road and have a porous pass defense. Run through the Panthers and keep the D on the sideline, please.
Texas State (+3.5) at Southern Mississippi
Man, look at the teams I'm playing this week; it's gross. Desperate times call for desperate measures. There are some statistical anomalies I'm targeting here. Southern Miss' pass defense has an obscene 9:20 TD:INT ratio; that's simply unsustainable. Texas State ranks 97th in pass attempts as they are a run-dominant offense that's sporting a 13:6 TD:INT ratio offensively. An opportunistic defense that won't get that chance here sounds like trouble. Texas State has lost five straight, but three have been by a field goal or less, and we've got a larger margin here. This line has dropped from (-6.5) and sits at (-4) or lower at some books, so I was on the right track Sunday night, but perhaps not so much by kickoff/my posted play.
Coastal Carolina (+3) at Georgia Southern
Another well I'm taking for the second straight week, but unlike the Marshal/GSU line, this one smells fishy and makes me concerned. Georgia Southern is 135th against the run (out of 136 teams), allowing 5.6 ypc and 26 TDs. Coastal is on a heater, winning four straight while rushing for at least 214 and scoring 40+ in three straight. They're an okay 2-2 on the road, and we don't need an outright winner. The Golden Eagles are 3-1 at home, but their wins are Maine, Georgia State and Jacksonville State...maybe just the latter being of minor quality. If you don't like the spread, consider the over here, which is 6-3 in both of these teams' nine games.
Missouri (-7) vs. Mississippi State
Yes, I saw how awful Matt Zollers was last week, and I had a spotlight column where I took the Tigers. But in hindsight, I question Missouri's approach. Sure, they were playing from behind, but to have a green quarterback throw 22 times while Ahmad Hardy ran just 13 times? That seems like malpractice. Mississippi State ranks 112th against the run and has given up 542 yards over the last two games. Hardy better get 20+ attempts if not 30+ and just gash this defense. The Bulldogs have only beaten Arkansas in conference. It's time for the Tigers to get back on track.
Last week: 3-2; Season 26-29
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Greg's Picks
The back and forth continues, this time on the wrong side, as I went 2-3 this past week. All things considered, I'll take it as I lost my first two games this past week and was staring at a disastrous week.
The first loss came on Indiana, which never got any separation from Penn State and nearly lost the game outright. That result doesn't change my opinion on Indiana, though, just a tough spot and the Hoosiers found a way to win. The subsequent loss was to Mississippi State, and in hindsight, that pick came a week too late. MSU hadn't faltered at home at all, and everyone was getting all over Georgia for its close wins. It was one of those spots where everything was pointing one way, which always makes me nervous. The final loss was UCLA, which didn't really show up against Nebraska. I have to admit, though, the Cornhuskers were much better than I thought they would be with a backup QB.
As for the wins, the under on the Washington/Wisconsin game was an easy hit, while the Alabama win was more of a sweat.
Indiana (-29) vs. Wisconsin
As mentioned earlier, my opinion on Indiana hasn't changed, so with that in mind, I'm heading back to the well. This is a perfect setup as Indiana is coming off a win, but one in which it didn't play it's best, while Wisconsin is coming off a game where it couldn't have played much better. The icing on top is that the Badgers got a much-needed win, and now they head to Indiana pleased with where they're at. Okay, so in the big picture, they aren't pleased, but for this week, they are happy with what they've accomplished, and that's never a good thing when you're about to play one of the best teams in the country. Indiana doesn't leave this one to chance; it's another rout.
Northwestern (+12) vs. Michigan
This game sets up a lot like the Georgia-MSU game from this past week, but there are a couple key differences. First, Northwestern, which has kept a lot of games close this season as an underdog, but unlike MSU, the 'Cats are coming off a lopsided loss, which should provide a reset. Second, Michigan's offense is nowhere near Georgia's, so even if the Wolverines come to play, their ceiling is limited. I am a little worried that the narrow win this past week against Purdue, I'm sure that will serve as a wake-up call for the coaches, but I expect Northwestern to slow this game down, as it often does, and make it difficult for Michigan to get on top of this large number.
Arkansas (+5.5) at LSU
I'll start by stating that if we get the version of LSU that played this past week, then I have no chance of winning this one, but I don't think we'll see that team again this season. LSU got a bounce this past week after firing Brian Kelly, but it came up short. Now the Tigers return home to play Arkansas. I'm sure everyone will be pumped up for this one! It's an early afternoon game, against a 2-7 team, I just can't see the Tigers bringing their best in this spot. Arkansas, meanwhile, has played everyone tight since getting rid of its coach a month ago, and that includes Tennessee and Texas A&M. I think the Hogs will see this as a rare opportunity to go into Baton Rouge and come out with a win.
Michigan State (+7) vs. Penn State
MSU is not an easy team to back; the Spartans are not a good team, but they find themselves in a good spot this week. That spot is a result of how Penn State comes into this game. The Nittany Lions have had a very eventful season, from losing to Oregon in overtime to dropping their next two games, losing their head coach, and then nearly beating Indiana this past week. Penn State is playing much better since the HC change, but they are coming off a three-week stretch where they played the best of the Big Ten, and now they go to East Lansing to face a nondescript Spartan team. Much like the fading of LSU, I just don't see how Penn State gets up for this one.
Washington (-16.5) vs. Purdue
A couple of things are in play here. First, Washington has proved to be a much better team at home than on the road this season. Second, the Huskies faced a much different beast this past week in Madison, and they should find things much easier, especially on offense this week. The Huskies ran into a motivated Badger team this past week, which has a capable defense and was playing in front of its home crowd. None of those things will be true this week. Purdue is at the bottom of the Big Ten and just spent the past two weeks playing Ohio State and Michigan, so perhaps the Boilermakers will be lacking motivation this week as well.
Last Week: 2-3-0 This Season 30-25-0
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Jeff's Picks
Although I made two notable calls last week, I was thwarted by Chadler Morris' injury, and I blew my opportunity to go 3-2 for the week. Alabama came through for me, and the Under for the BYU/TTU game also hit, but I underestimated Iowa's defense and fell way short on an Over call for the team against Oregon. As you'll see below, I won't make that mistake again, and I think this collection of picks will finally right the ship for me after a disappointing month.
Notre Dame -12.5 at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi lobbed some funny little chestnuts to the press after being asked about whether the Notre Dame game was a must-win for his team. He basically said that he didn't care much about the outcome, exclaiming that he didn't care if he lost the game by 100 points. In a way, his reasoning makes sense. This isn't a conference game. If he can win the final two ACC games of the season, he has an inside track to an ACC Championship game and a potential path to the College Football Playoff. If you add in several injuries on defense and a pivotal questionable tag for Desmond Reid, you see a team that intends to go all-in next week and does not care much about what happens against the Irish. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has zero shot to make the playoffs if they lose this one, and they need to win convincingly to increase their playoff resume. Pitt's run defense is usually pretty strong, but they are banged up and facing the most potent running back duo in the country. The weather report isn't encouraging, but If DJ Carr and the Irish can present a balanced attack, they should win by at least two touchdowns.
Clemson Moneyline (+120) at Louisville (Friday Night)
Clemson has revenge on its mind after the Cardinals dealt the Tigers a loss in Death Valley last season. Momentum-wise, these teams are going in opposite directions. Jeff Brohm's weekday press conference didn't inspire much confidence in the team's overall morale this week. Conversely, Dabo Swinney is taking the momentum from the Florida State win and making a chase for a bowl bid sound like a CFP berth. Cade Klubnik and Clemson's offense are finally coming around, and Garrett Riley is composing a game plan that plays to Clemson's strengths - run the ball, run it some more, and then find Antonio Williams. That's all they'll need to succeed, and even though Clemson's defense has fallen short of expectations, they will give an already struggling Miller Moss headaches. The Cards will struggle to keep this close.
Under 49.5 
USC at 
Iowa
The song "It Never Rains in Southern California" won't be sung this weekend, and the Hawkeyes couldn't have asked for a better scenario against the Trojans. The forecast looks grim in LA, as rain is forecasted before, during, and after the game. The field will be wet, and chances are that the ball will be as well. Iowa took Oregon to the brink in bad weather and limited a powerful offense to 18 points. I would argue that USC's passing attack is a bit better than what Oregon could offer, but we saw how ineffective USC was in the rain versus Notre Dame. USC is coming off a decisive win against Northwestern, so momentum is on their side, but I question the ability of these teams to get close to 50. Iowa has surpassed this number twice, but those instances were against Rutgers and UMass. USC's defense is much better than that, and the weather will skew both teams toward a run-based, slow-moving offensive scheme.
Over 48.5 
Texas A&M vs. 
South Carolina
I think the Aggies have a viable argument for being #1 over Indiana, and I think they'll take over the ranking if they run the table. The team could get to this total on its own at home, especially against a South Carolina team that's fallen short of expectations and has basically thrown in the towel. I imagine that several key players have already checked out and are planning who to contact in the transfer portal, a trend that is going to expand into an epidemic in the offseason. A loss here will knock the Gamecocks out of bowl eligibility, and the finale against Clemson would be their one chance to end the season on a high note. They could lose big here, but I expect them to score a touchdown or two to help out the total. This could be just a get-past game for the Aggies, but they're offended by the latest ranking and will be out to prove a point.
Marshall -7.5 @ Georgia State
Although the hook added to this spread is a little concerning, it's still too low, potentially leading to a complete mismatch in the trenches. Michael Allen and Antwan Roberts form a solid one-two punch for the Thundering Herd, and they could both have a big day against Georgia State's run defense, which gives up an average of 231.4 yards per game to opposing running backs. Only Georgia Southern and Eastern Michigan have worse results in the FBS. The Panthers may also be without QB Cameran Brown, who is questionable with an undisclosed injury.
Last Week: 2-3-0 This Season: 20-35-0
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