Best EuroLeague Bets for Thursday, Jan. 15
It's time for some major self-reflection, ladies and gentlemen. As you may know, we finished the final three days of last week with an 0–9 record. There's no blaming hooks or bad luck, just flat-out poor outings. As I mentioned previously, we shortened the unit sizes while we get our groove back, so for those who tailed I hope that at least helped limit the damage.
I'm hardly ready to throw in the towel. The data I use has made me profitable across multiple EuroLeague seasons. That said, numbers can always be interpreted differently, and you might choose a different player or angle that you believe gains more of an edge.
With all that being said, it's time to get back on track.
All odds for EuroLeague player props current as of 7:45 AM ET Friday.
PICKS TO CLICK
TJ Shorts Over 12.5 Points (-122 FanDuel)
TJ Shorts 15+ Points (+132 DraftKings)
Jerian Grant Over 14.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-112 bet365)
There's no way around it -- we missed the opening line when it was announced Kendrick Nunn would be sidelined, which cost us closing line value on the Shorts props. I wish player props had been posted earlier Wednesday, as I would've released this sooner. Even so, I still think there's value to be found.
As mentioned in the breakdown, you can interpret this situation however you like. Personally, I'd only take one of these guards. Do you ride the line movement and accept missing the opening line on Shorts, knowing he should step into the Nunn alpha role? Or, you could take the sneakier points+rebounds+assists value on Grant, who should also see an increase in minutes security and usage.
I will wait for starting lineups before locking anything in, but as of now I expect both to start. I am slightly hesitant with Shorts because the matchup isn't ideal -- Bayern ranks top-5 over the last five games in limiting opposing guards. They do rank bottom-5 in points allowed to centers during the same stretch. Richaun Holmes, anyone?
Elie Okobo Over 15.5 Points+Assists (-112 bet365)
Matthew Strazel Over 12.5 Points+Assists (-112 bet365)
I'm making both of these plays regardless who starts, as head coach Vassilis Spanoulis doesn't tend to shuffle the deck much. Okobo is likely to start, with Strazel almost always coming off the bench.
I usually dislike cherry-picking prior matchup stats, but hear me out. In the previous two meetings against their French league foe, Okobo and Strazel both went off, nearly doubling these lines in both instances. Normally that's not a sustainable angle, but with the pace and style Paris plays at it holds more weight.
Spanoulis has leaned heavily into three-guard ball-handling lineups when facing this high-octane Paris team. That adjustment allowed Okobo and Strazel to run wild, often at the expense of minutes for Alpha Diallo, Nikola Mirotic and other non-ball-handlers.
I fully understand if Strazel burned you last week and you'd rather only trust the starter in Okobo. If I had to choose just one, Okobo would be my clear preference.
Saben Lee Over 16.5 Points+Assists (-122 bet365)
This might feel like a trap, but I'm taking the bait. The line is simply too good to pass up. Since being inserted into the starting lineup for Efes, Lee has yet to score fewer than 15 points. His last three assist totals were 10, two, and six, and now he draws a Virtus defense that has been shaky at best.
I get that if Isaia Cordinier returns, Lee's usage could take a hit. But given how well Lee has been playing, how much does that truly cut into his role? And what if Cordinier isn't full speed and not ready to take on a major offensive workload in addition to the elite defensive energy he provides?
Even in a scenario where Cordinier plays big minutes and has a big game, I still think this number is low enough for Lee to get there late.
Thursday's Best EuroLeague Bets
- TJ Shorts Over 12.5 Points (-122 FanDuel)
- TJ Shorts 15+ Points (+132 DraftKings)
- Jerian Grant Over 14.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-112 bet365)
- Elie Okobo Over 15.5 Points+Assists (-112 bet365)
- Matthew Strazel Over 12.5 Points+Assists (-112 bet365)
- Saben Lee Over 16.5 Points+Assists (-122 bet365)
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