Ahead of the 2025 NFL Season, RotoWire.com used various AI tools (based on results from ChatGPT, Gemini and Grok) to get a collective prediction of each team's record based on team strength, schedule, offseason moves and more. Here's a breakdown of which teams AI predicts will exceed expectations and which ones will fall short this season:
RotoWire also now has NFL Week 1 odds, along with all other weeks of the 2025 season.
AI Predicts 2025 NFL Team Records: Surprises and Disappointments Await
Team | AI Predicted Record | Vegas over/under |
Arizona Cardinals | 6-11 | 8.5 |
Atlanta Falcons | 9-8 | 7.5 |
Baltimore Ravens | 11-6 | 11.5 |
Buffalo Bills | 12-5 | 11.5 |
Carolina Panthers | 7-10 | 6.5 |
Chicago Bears | 9-8 | 8.5 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 10-7 | 9.5 |
Cleveland Browns | 6-11 | 4.5 |
Dallas Cowboys | 8-9 | 7.5 |
Denver Broncos | 9-8 | 9.5 |
Detroit Lions | 11-6 | 10.5 |
Green Bay Packers | 10-7 | 9.5 |
Houston Texans | 10-7 | 9.5 |
Indianapolis Colts | 8-9 | 7.5 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 7-10 | 7.5 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 12-5 | 11.5 |
Las Vegas Raiders | 6-11 | 6.5 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 9-8 | 9.5 |
Los Angeles Rams | 9-8 | 9.5 |
Miami Dolphins | 9-8 | 8.5 |
Minnesota Vikings | 9-8 | 8.5 |
New England Patriots | 6-11 | 8.5 |
New Orleans Saints | 6-11 | 4.5 |
New York Giants | 5-12 | 5.5 |
New York Jets | 8-9 | 5.5 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 12-5 | 11.5 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-8 | 8.5 |
San Francisco 49ers | 11-6 | 10.5 |
Seattle Seahawks | 8-9 | 8.5 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9-8 | 9.5 |
Tennessee Titans | 5-12 | 5.5 |
Washington Commanders | 7-10 | 9.5 |
Key Takeaways From AI NFL 2025 Outlook
The AI outlook has every team finishing with between five and 12 wins. The Bills, Chiefs and Eagles are projected to tie for the league's best record at 12-5, while the Titans and Giants come out on the low end with projected 5-12 records. Overall, the AI predictions predominantly fell in line with Vegas odds, as the records predicted by AI fell within half a win of Vegas' over/unders for 25 of the 32 NFL teams, but it wouldn't be an authentic AI prediction without a few hot takes or hallucinations.
AI's Surprising Performers: Teams That Will Make Noise in 2025
Four teams are projected to exceed their Vegas preseason win totals by at least 1.5 games (Falcons, Browns, Saints and Jets), led by the Jets coming in 2.5 games above expectations. The Jets landed highly-coveted coaching candidate Aaron Glenn from Detroit this offseason, and the AI models seem to think both he and Kellen Moore (New Orleans) will post strong first years in their jobs.
AI also predicts that three teams will underachieve by 2.5 games: the Cardinals, Patriots and Commanders. Having a young QB naturally increases uncertainty, and that's borne out in the AI outlook. Three of the seven teams predicted to deviate from expectations have a second-year starter under center, and two of the remaining four could realistically start a rookie QB for most or all of the 2025 season.
It's possible the AI predictions were influenced by the outsized megaphone the New York media market has on sports takes, as the Jets were the only team picked to exceed their Vegas win total by 2.5 games, while the Jets' and Giants' respective AFC/NFC East rival Patriots and Commanders were two of the three teams predicted to fall 2.5 games short of expectations. An equally plausible explanation, though, is just that the AI's simulations tend to herd teams toward the middle, as three of the four teams projected to exceed expectations (Jets, Browns and Saints) all have starting points of 5.5 or fewer wins from Vegas.
Maybe the AI just hasn't been around long enough to experience the constant letdowns of long-suffering teams like the Jets and Browns, or perhaps its analysis of offseason moves is on to something in having the Jets as the league's biggest positive surprise. Then again, it would be very same-old-Jets to exceed expectations more than any other team, only to narrowly miss the playoffs at 9-8 and extend their NFL-worst playoff drought to 15 seasons.
Key Offseason Moves Shaping 2025 NFL AI Predictions
New coaches and QBs are some of the biggest catalysts for significant year-to-year turnarounds in the NFL. The Jets and Saints made changes at both of those key spots in the offseason, while the Browns remade their QB room and the Falcons are expected to have a full season of 2024 first-round pick Michael Penix under center after he started only three games as a rookie.
As for the three teams projected to fall short of expectations, there are plenty of data points to support the AI's bearish outlook on the Patriots, Cardinals and Commanders.
The Patriots won just four games apiece in 2023 and 2024, including a 3-9 record in games started by QB Drake Maye. Vegas is pricing in a significant step forward from the 2024 third overall pick after New England beefed up his supporting cast with an active offseason, but 6-11 seems quite realistic if Maye ends up being similar in ability to the last highly touted QB prospect out of UNC: 2017 second overall pick Mitchell Trubisky.
Arizona's projected 6-11 mark would be the average of the team's results in the first two years under head coach Jonathan Gannon (4-13 in 2023 and 8-9 in 2024), and the Cardinals went 4-13 in 2022 in the team's final season under Kliff Kingsbury. It isn't too hard to imagine Arizona slipping back to a few games under .500 in the tough NFC West Division.
Speaking of Kingsbury, the Commanders' offense thrived in 2024 with him as the offensive coordinator, and while Washington has more reason for optimism than New England or Arizona, there's also a distinct possibility of regression now that the rest of the league has a year of tape on dynamic young QB Jayden Daniels. The 2024 second overall pick's propensity to scramble suggested a greater risk of injury at the NFL level, but Daniels didn't miss a game in his rookie campaign. If Daniels gets hurt or undergoes a sophomore slump, the Commanders could suddenly look much closer to the team that went 4-13 in 2023 than the 12-5 squad from 2024.
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