Beating the Book: NFL Week 18 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Week 18 edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

After a dubious start to Week 17 – we went 0-2-1 on Christmas Day – we were able to claw our way back to post an 8-7-1 ATS mark, pushing our season-long record to (a very pedestrian) 128-122-6.

We now focus our attention on a Week 18 slate that begins with a two-game set on Saturday, as the Panthers and Bucs battle for the NFC South (well, kind of) before the Seahawks take on the Niners to decide the NFC West, as well as the 1-seed in the NFC.

The Sunday slate packs the usual Week 18 mix of meaningful and meaningless games, as teams like Jacksonville, Houston, Buffalo, Chicago, Denver, New England and Philly are still battling for seeding. While we don't get a Monday Night Football game, we cap off the week with Ravens-Steelers on Sunday night to decide the AFC North.

You can find my thoughts and score predictions on each of those games, and the entire NFL Week 18 slate, below. As always, our best bet of the week will be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 17

• Browns +3.0 vs. Steelers: The Steelers had a chance to lock up the AFC North and instead came out with a bizarre gameplan and failed to score a touchdown.
• Dolphins +5.5 vs. Bucs: The Bucs continue to somehow look worse and worse with each passing week. We've finally learned our lesson.

Worst calls of Week 17

• Cardinals +7.5 at Bengals: The Cardinals have lost 13 of their last 14 games, often in blowout fashion, and yet I continue to convince myself this team is frisky.
• Panthers +7.5 vs. Seahawks: As they often do, the Panthers showed up in the first half before completely unraveling in the third quarter.

Last week: 8-7-1 ATS; 11-5 SU; best bet won (NE -12.5)

On the season: 128-122-6 ATS; 166-89-1 SU; 8-9 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Saturday Slate

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Bucs -2.5

Total: 43.5

In the most NFC South situation possible, if the Bucs win this game, the division will ultimately be decided by the Saints-Falcons matchup on Sunday. I'd like to remind you that neither the Saints nor the Falcons can make the playoffs. But a Bucs win + a Saints win would send Tampa Bay into the postseason, while a Panthers win or a Bucs win + a Falcons win would mean Carolina takes the South and the 4 seed.

Before we get too into the weeds, the Panthers will have a chance to avoid that scenario entirely by simply winning this game. While the Bucs are at home and favored, this may be the biggest toss-up of the season. I refuse to believe the Panthers are a quality football team, while the Bucs have shown us, definitively, that they also cannot be taken seriously. Entering Saturday, the Bucs have dropped seven of their last eight, including four in a row to (potential) non-playoff teams in New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina and Miami.

The Bucs look like a team that's out of answers on both sides of the ball, but they still have a significant talent advantage and should get Tristan Wirfs back this week. Tampa Bay couldn't run the ball on Miami but did rack up 169 rushing yards against this Panthers team just two weeks ago. 

Even with Baker Mayfield struggling and playing through multiple injuries, I just can't get myself to back Bryce Young on the road in the biggest game of his career. 

The pick: Buccaneers 21 – Panthers 17

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: Seahawks -1.5

Total: 47.5

Both teams have already clinched playoff spots, but this game will ultimately determine the 1 seed in the NFC. Seattle can't fall further than the 5, but a Niners loss – plus a Rams win – could send San Francisco all the way down to the 6 seed.

These teams matched up all the way back in Week 1, with the Niners pulling out a win in a low-scoring game. I'm not sure we see the same this time around, as the Niners' defense has struggled in three straight weeks, giving up 24 points to Tennessee, 27 to Philip Rivers and the Colts and 38 in a wild, back-and-forth win over Chicago last week.

The Seahawks have been prone to sluggish starts, but the running game is starting to come around, and so long as Sam Darnold can avoid the big mistakes – we'll see about that – I like Seattle's chances to move the ball consistently. Defensively, the Seahawks' unit will be easily the best defense the Niners have faced in the last month-and-a-half, but the Niners' offense has been rolling over the last month.

I like the O47.5 more than a side, but we'll back Seattle to be the latest team to take advantage of that Niners defense.

The pick: Seahawks 30 – 49ers 27

Sunday Early Slate

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -3.0

Total: 44.0

As noted above, this is the game that could ultimately decide the NFC South, despite both teams being eliminated from the playoffs several weeks ago.

New Orleans comes in riding a four-game winning streak behind Tyler Shough, while the Falcons have won three in a row, capped off by an impressive victory in LA on Monday night. Offensively, the Falcons profile as the much-higher-powered unit, though Shough has thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games, despite limited weaponry.

That weaponry will be even more diminished this week, as news broke Thursday morning that Chris Olave has been ruled out with a blood clot issue.

The loss of Olave, who's quietly had an excellent season, is massive, as the Saints already have four wide receivers and two running backs on IR, while Alvin Kamara is unlikely to return this week. That means we could be looking at Kevin Austin and Dante Pettis as the Saints' primary receivers, while Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill will play important roles.

Ultimately, even without Olave, this is a winnable game for the Saints. It would be extremely Falcons to win three in a row, knock off the Rams, and then come home and no-show. With that said, Atlanta should be able to generate enough offense behind Bijan Robinson to win this game by a score. The U44.5 is my favorite play here.

The pick: Falcons 23 – Saints 17

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -7.5

Total: 44.5

This is one of the truly meaningless games on the slate, but the Browns are in evaluation mode, while the Bengals are playing out the string on another lost, injury-plagued season. With Joe Burrow back alongside his full complement of weapons, the Bengals are looking like the offense we thought they'd be, piling up 37, 45, 34 and 32 points in four of their last five games with a 24-0 shutout loss to the Ravens mixed in that sample.

Cleveland, meanwhile, is coming off of a SU win over the Steelers after nearly knocking off the Bills in Week 16. The Browns' offense remains extremely limited, but the defense will have advantages against a shaky Bengals offensive line as Myles Garrett aims to set the single-season sack record.

Over the course of four quarters, the Bengals should be able to pull away, but we'll side with Cleveland to keep this within a touchdown.

The pick: Bengals 27 – Browns 20

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -10.5

Total: 38.5

Houston will likely finish as the 5 seed in the AFC, but if the Jags were to lose to Tennessee this week, the Texans could jump them for the division – and likely the 3 seed. As such, Houston will play to win, but there could be some scoreboard-watching in the second half if the Jags build a comfortable lead.

Either way, the Texans' defense against Riley Leonard should be a massive mismatch. The question is whether Houston's offense – which has scored 23 or fewer points in six of the last seven games – can do enough early on to put the game out of reach.

Ultimately, though, this is yet another game that can be controlled by the defense. I don't see this as much of a true trap spot for the Texans, as wins by the Chargers (unlikely) or Bills (more likely) could push Houston down to the six or seven seed in the AFC.

This could get dicey in the fourth quarter if Riley Leonard decides to get frisky, but we'll take the Texans to win and cover.

The pick: Texans 27 – Colts 14

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars -12.5

Total: 47.5

The goal is simple for Jacksonville this week: win and they take the AFC South. Jacksonville is technically still alive for the 1 or 2 seed, but that would require Denver to lose to Trey Lance and/or New England to fall to the Dolphins. The latter is slightly more possible, but either way, the Jags need to win to hold off Houston and lock in a home Wild Card game.

Having won seven in a row with Trevor Lawrence playing at easily the highest level of his career, the Jags should be able to take care of business at home. Tennessee's run defense won't make it easy, however, and Cam Ward has quietly accounted for 11 touchdowns with only one pick over the last seven games.

Admittedly, this could be a smash spot for Jacksonville to head into the playoffs with a ton of momentum, but with the number sitting at 12.5, the backdoor may be open for Tennessee in thefourth quarter. 

The pick: Jaguars 27 – Titans 17

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -7.5

Total: 35.5

This is the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week and one of the stay-aways of the year. Max Brosmer going up against Clayton Tune.

Really not much to say here other than I expect this to be a low-scoring game, as the Packers are prioritizing rest heading into the Wild Card round. Some regulars will have to be out there for Green Bay, but this has the feel of a "show up, get this game over with, and move on" situation.

The pick: Vikings 17 – Packers 7

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Spread: Cowboys -3.5

Total: 51.5

This is among the most difficult games to evaluate, as the Giants may be playing for draft positioning, while the Cowboys claim they're playing their starters, but maybe not for the entire game.

Knowing what we know now, the Cowboys should be able to move the ball fairly effortlessly on a bad Giants defense, but Jaxson Dart and Co. can also take advantage of a Cowboys unit that's fallen to 30th in EPA per rush and 30th in EPA per pass on the season.

Under the assumption that Dallas pulls its starters at some point, we'll take the Giants to cover the 3.5 at home, but they'll ensure they hang on to at least the No. 2 overall pick.

The pick: Cowboys 24 – Giants 21

Sunday Afternoon Slate

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -7.5

Total: 38.5

Another tricky game to evaluate on the Buffalo side, as the Bills have a chance to move up to the 5 or 6 seed but need help from the Texans and/or Chargers to do so. Los Angeles appears to be set to lie down against Denver, but as noted above we expect Houston to play to win.

Assuming the Chargers lose, that means Buffalo needs to win win to get the 6 seed. The question is whether they'll prioritize rest vs. seeding in what feels like a wide open AFC. Buffalo will be on the road no matter what, but would they rather play (likely) New England or Jacksonville in Round 1? Who's to say.

This could also be the final game at Highmark Stadium before the Bills move into their new digs next season. While ensuring you're best-positioned as possible for a playoff run should take precedence, Sean McDermott did acknowledge the situation this week.

As of mid-week, it's tough to say how the Bills will choose to handle this game. My guess is we see Josh Allen and most of the starters early on, but I wouldn't bank on Allen, especially, playing a full game. That means it could be on Mitchell Trubisky to close out the final regular-season game at Highmark Stadium, as well as try to avoid handing the Jets their first interception of the season.

The pick: Bills 24 – Jets 14

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -3.0

Total: 50.5

A win for the Bears – or an Eagles loss – would lock up the 2-seed in the NFC, as well as a Wild Card rubber match against the Green Bay Packers. The Lions, meanwhile, are officially eliminated but would love nothing more than to hand a division rival a second straight loss heading into the postseason.

While Dan Campbell doesn't strike me as much of a rest-friendly head coach, he did acknowledge this week that the Lions obviously won't push players battling injuries to play in what's ultimately a meaningless game. Still, Detroit should have enough firepower to test a Bears defense coming off of an extremely concerning showing against San Francisco last week.

I won't be surprised if the Lions make this interesting, and even push to win outright, but we also have to acknowledge how broken this offense has looked behind a crumbling offensive line over the last two weeks. More than anything, this could come down to how much scoreboard-watching the Bears are doing in the second half. How the Commanders-Eagles game transpires could impact how long Caleb Williams and Co. remain in the game.

The pick: Bears 33 – Lions 27

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -12.5

Total: 37.5

Not much to say here. The Chargers have already announced Justin Herbert won't play and other regulars will likely be ruled out or see reduced snaps. So the path is clear for the Broncos to lock up the 1-seed, but we've seen Denver struggle to cover big numbers all season, including last week at Arrowhead against the Chiefs' third quarterback.

I don't see Denver losing, but the Chargers' defense can do enough to turn this game into more of a slog than it should be. This is another game where the backdoor could be open late if Denver opts to pull back after building an early lead.

The pick: Broncos 24 – Chargers 13

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -7.5

Total: 46.5

Without checking, I would almost guarantee the Cardinals are near the top of the list of teams we've picked incorrectly the most this season. I don't know why I continue to believe in a team that's lost 13 of its last 14 games and failed to cover seven of its last eight.

We're in another precarious spot with Arizona this week, as the result of the Seahawks-Niners game Saturday night could heavily influence how the Rams opt to play this game. Following their loss to the Falcons on Monday night, Sean McVay vowed to play starters in Week 18, but if San Francisco beats Seattle, the Rams will be locked into the No. 6 seed.

In that scenario, I could see McVay still sending his starters out for a few series to try to build back some momentum heading into the playoffs, but in my mind it's highly unlikely that Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Co. would play a full game. Meanwhile, if the Seahawks win on Saturday, the Rams could leapfrog the Niners for the 5 seed with a win.

We may have to issue an updated pick on Sunday morning, but we did take the Seahawks to knock off the Niners, so we'll assume the Rams are playing for the right to face the Panthers or Bucs in the Wild Card.

The pick: Rams 31 – Cardinals 21

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Chiefs -5.5

Total: 36.5

Very little to say about this game. The Chiefs have packed it in with Chris Oladokun at quarterback, while the Raiders will likely be rolling out some combination of Kenny Pickett and Aidan O'Connell.

It's difficult to trust either of these offenses right now, but the Chiefs' defense is still playing at a fairly high level, even with some key players shelved for the season.

Nothing would surprise me in one of the least-meaningful games of the week, but the Raiders do appear hellbent on getting the No. 1 overall pick, so the Chiefs – who are taking plenty of sharp money this week – have to be the side.

The pick: Chiefs 20 – Raiders 13

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Spread: Pats -10.5

Total: 45.5

Assuming Jacksonville beats Tennessee, the Pats will need to win to hold on to the 2 seed in the AFC. They will, of course, know the result of both that game and Indy-Houston heading into the late window, so if the favorites hold serve, we should expect New England to do what it needs to not only lock in the 2 but hold out hope for an upset in Denver that would propel the Pats to the 1 seed.

The latter appears very unlikely, but the bottom line is the Pats will probably need to win this game if they care about the 2 vs. the 3 seed. My assumption is they do, but this is another spot with a good team laying a big number against a frisky opponent. Miami fell flat after a hot start against Cincy two weeks ago before bouncing back with an impressive win over the Bucs last week.

My initial lean is on the Dolphins to cover the 10.5, but we'll need to update this pick closer to Sunday with several key players on the injury report, including Minkah Fitzpatrick, Austin Brewer, Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane and Darren Waller.

The pick: Patriots 30 – Dolphins 20

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -4.5

Total: 39.5

The early messaging out of Philly is that the Eagles will rest many of their regulars, likely setting up a Tanner McKee vs. Josh Johnson showdown on Sunday afternoon. The Commanders would love to end the season on a relatively high note, but Washington continues to be racked by injuries, while the defense has been in a freefall for two months.

McKee won't have a full suite of weapons, but he's shown in the past to be one of the better backups in the NFL, including in Week 18 last season when he piloted the Eagles to a 20-13 win over the Giants in a very similar spot.

Clearly, the Eagles don't necessarily care if they win this game, but it's a big audition spot for McKee, who could turn into an interesting trade asset this offseason with another strong showing.

We'll take the Eagles to win outright, but Philly will likely hold out enough of its regulars to allow Washington to hang around and cover the 4.5

The pick: Eagles 24 – Commanders 21

Sunday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Ravens -3.5

Total: 41.5

Much like Panthers-Bucs, this is a matchup between two teams that have been extremely difficult to back this season. Just when it looked like the Steelers were on the cusp of pushing the Ravens out of the playoffs, they found a way to lose – and score only six points – to the Browns last week, while Baltimore piled up 41 points on the Packers at Lambeau Field.

I was so ready to be done with the Ravens, but suddenly they've been given new life, and it certainly looks as though Lamar Jackson will be back in the lineup on Sunday night.

Whether we can trust Lamar to play at the level we're used to remains to be seen, but if nothing else the Ravens seemingly realized last week that Derrick Henry can, in fact, carry the offense, much like he did throughout last season. Against a limited Steelers attack – Pittsburgh will again be without DK Metcalf – Baltimore may simply need Jackson to make a few plays and, more importantly, avoid any killer mistakes.

With how this season has whipsawed for both teams, nothing would surprise me in terms of the final result. We'll ride with the Ravens to somehow, someway find their way into a division title, but I see the Steelers making this a field-goal game.

The pick: Ravens 23 – Steelers 20