Beating the Book: NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the Week 6 edition of Beating the Book, where we hand out NFL expert picks against the spread for every game, every week.

In a Week 5 marred by chaos, with underdogs finishing 9-5 SU and ATS, we were able to pull out an 10-4 mark ATS but went just 7-7 SU. While the early window provided some wild finishes in Broncos-Eagles and Dolphins-Panthers, it was the late window – and both primetime games – where underdogs truly hit the gas.

Of course, Tennessee rallying back from what should have been a 28-6 deficit was the biggest stunner of the week, but that was followed by Tampa Bay and Washington both winning outright as road dogs, while New England did the same on Sunday night. After falling behind 14-0, the Jaguars – 3.0-point dogs at home – stormed back for a 31-28 victory over Kansas City, punctuated by what will forever be remembered as The Stumble in the Jungle.

As we turn the page and take a look at the NFL odds for Week 6, we have only two teams on bye: Houston and Minnesota. The week begins with a divisional matchup between the Eagles and Giants on Thursday night and wraps up with, for some reason, another Monday Night Football doubleheader. Bills-Falcons is the early game, followed by Bears-Commanders an hour later.

As of publication, the Packers are far and away the biggest favorite on the board. Coming off of a bye – and two consecutive letdown games – Green Bay sits as a 14.5-point home favorite over Jake Browning Joe Flacco and the Bengals. Meanwhile, the Rams and Colts are each favored by at least 7.0 points over the Ravens and Cardinals, respectively.

You can find my thoughts on those games, and the entire Week 6 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 5:

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• Texans -1.5 vs. Ravens: While the Texans' offense had been a disaster until this week, the injuries for Baltimore were simply too much to overcome.
• Cowboys -2.5 at Jets: The Jets were a popular play this week, but we were able to remind ourselves that the Jets are still, in fact, the Jets.

Worst calls of Week 5:

• Chargers -2.5 vs. Commanders: It was our stay-away of the week for a reason. After jumping out to a 10-0 lead, the Chargers committed mistake after mistake and slowly let go of the rope.
• Chiefs -3.0 at Jaguars: While KC jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, we dramatically underestimated the combination of Jacksonville's throwback uniforms + Trevor Lawrence's birthday + the Teal Curtain stepping up with a 99-yard pick-six that flipped the game.

Last week: 10-4 ATS; 7-7 SU; best bet won (IND -6.5)

On the season: 43-33-2 ATS; 50-27-1 SU; 4-1 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Spread: Eagles -6.5

Total: 41.5

After getting the Jaxson Dart Bump in a Week 4 upset over the Chargers, the Giants jumped out to an early 14-3 lead in New Orleans before collapsing over the final three quarters. New York scored touchdowns on its first two drives, then failed to reach the red zone again until the final play of the game. At one point, the Giants turned it over on five consecutive drives – something that hadn't been done in the NFL in nearly a decade.

Dart will look to shake off that forgettable performance at home this week, but the Giants draw an Eagles team coming off of its first defeat of the season – and first loss with a healthy Jalen Hurts since Week 4 of last season.

Despite still sitting at 4-1, something has looked off with the Eagles thus far, and their inability to get Saquon Barkley going continues to be a concern. Through five games, Barkley is averaging just 53.4 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per attempt. At this point last year, Barkley was at 96.4 yards per game on 5.3 yards per attempt. Last week, he carried only six times for 30 yards, even with the Eagles playing with an early lead for a large swath of the game.

This game feels like a pivotal point for for the Eagles as they try to rediscover their identity – Philly did start 2-2 last season before hitting the gas – and I like their chances to do just that against an overmatched Giants team. Since 2019, the Giants are an astounding 2-20 SU in night games and 1-12 SU in home night games.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Giants 17

Sunday NFL London Game

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Spread: Broncos -6.5

Total: 43.5

With both New Orleans and Tennessee picking up wins on Sunday, the Jets now own the dubious title of being the NFL's lone winless team. While the advanced numbers may say New York is better than its 0-5 record, the Jets continue to make key mistakes on a weekly basis. Last week against Dallas, it was a Breece Hall fumble in the second quarter that flipped the script and allowed the Cowboys to pull away for a blowout win that was much more dominant than the final score implied.

This week, the Jets head to London to take on a Broncos team coming off of an impressive, come-from-behind win over the Eagles. After a rocky start, the Broncos appear to be picking up some momentum, and the defense has been as good as advertised. Through five games, Denver ranks first in opponent success rate, fourth in EPA/play, first in sack rate and third in opponent completion percentage.

This will be a tough spot for Justin Fields to get on track, but if the Jets can play even a remotely clean game, they might be able to hang around. At the end of the day, asking the Jets to play a clean game is a massive if, so we'll side with the Broncos.

The pick: Broncos 24 – Jets 17

Sunday Early Slate

Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Rams -7.5

Total: 44.5

Oh boy. The Baltimore Ravens are trouble. Last week's matchup with Houston went about as badly as it possibly could have, and the Ravens certainly look to be staring down the barrel of a 1-5 start. Still, Baltimore remains the favorite to win the AFC North, and with a bye week coming up, they should get Lamar Jackson and some key defensive pieces back for what will need to be a massive second-half surge.

Injuries aside, the issue for Baltimore is that its defense was already struggling before the likes of Roquan Smith, Nnamdi Madubuike, Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton went down. On the offensive side, the running game hasn't been able to get off the ground since an explosive Week 1 against Buffalo.

Given what we saw last week against a struggling Texans offense – and with the Rams coming off of a massive letdown game – we simply have to side with LA here. Let's hope this isn't another injury-report trap.

The pick: Rams 31 – Ravens 20

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Cowboys -3.0

Total: 49.5

Sneaky-interesting game in Carolina with one of the highest totals of the week. Closing as a slight road dog at the Jets in Week 5, Dallas responded with a dominant effort, piling up 37 points and 416 yards of total offense en route to building a 30-3 lead late in the third quarter. Even without CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys' offense continues to roll behind a vastly improved running game and high-level play from Dak Prescott.

The Cowboys' defense remains a question mark, at best, however, so it's fair to expect Carolina to be able to move the ball for a second straight week. Through five games, Dallas ranks 31st in defensive EPA/play, 29th in success rate and dead-last in EPA/pass. The run defense has been slightly better (24th in EPA/play), so if Carolina is to hang around, Bryce Young will need to go score-for-score with Prescott.

Carolina's comeback from a 17-0 deficit was impressive last week, but it also came against the Miami Dolphins. Young won't be able to get away with his patented sack-fumble + interception combo to start this one.

I like the Panthers to make this uncomfortable, but I'm buying what the Cowboys' offense is selling right now. We do need to keep an eye on the Dallas injury report, however, as multiple key offensive linemen and defensive backs are currently questionable.

The pick: Cowboys 31 – Panthers 25

Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts -7.0

Total: 47.5

Purely from an ATS loss perspective, the Eagles' blocked field goal touchdown in Week 3 is still the worst beat of the season, in my eyes. But the single worst loss – when factoring in spread and Survivor implications – now belongs to the Arizona Cardinals. 

We don't need to fully rehash the confluence of terrible events that led to a 22-21 defeat at the hands of the lowly Titans – at home, no less – but it's fair to wonder how a team responds to such a devastating situation. In this instance, I'm not sure this is some sort of galvanizing situation for Arizona, which now heads out on the road to face a Colts team coming off of a 40-6 beatdown of the Raiders.

To Vegas' credit, they led that game 3-0 at the end of the first quarter. Unfortunately, they were then outscored 40-0 over the next 30 minutes before Anthony Richardson took over in the fourth quarter. A blocked punt, plus two more Geno Smith picks, contributed heavily to the Raiders' demise, but the Colts certainly look the part of one of the most-complete teams in the NFL.

Entering Week 6, Indy ranks first in offensive EPA, first in success rate, fourth in EPA per rush and fourth in EPA per pass, all while coming in at fifth in defensive EPA. A soft early season schedule has been a contributing factor, but unlike other elite teams, the Colts have had zero issues rolling over teams like Miami, Vegas and Tennessee.

I'll admit, this number does feel a bit long, especially considering the Colts closed as only 7.0-point favorites over the Raiders, but I like Indy to once again take care of business against a limited and mistake-prone Cardinals offense.

Keep an eye on the Cardinals' Friday injury report, too, as Kyler Murray is yet to practice this week.

The pick: Colts 29 – Cardinals 17

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars -1.5

Total: 47.0

Fittingly, this is the tightest line of the week, as the Seahawks make the cross-country trip down to Duval County to take on the 4-1, AFC South co-leading Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags 4-1 start is one of the stories of the first month, and the Jags' win on Monday night over Kansas City will go down as one of their most memorable in years – mostly due to a lack of competition for that title. Nonetheless, Liam Coen has completely overhauled the culture in Jacksonville and transformed a doormat into what certainly looks like a playoff team over the course of an offseason.

Are the Jags true Super Bowl contenders? In my mind, absolutely not. But they're clearly capable of beating anyone in this parity-laden version of the NFL. In terms of where they stack up league-wide, they're roughly on the same tier as Seattle, which enters this matchup 3-2 fresh off of a devastating home loss to the Buccaneers.

While a late Sam Darnold interception ultimately sunk the Seahawks, Darnold continues to play at an elite level and should get plenty of credit for rallying Seattle from an early 13-0 deficit to lead five consecutive touchdown drives.

Both run defenses are strong, so this may be another game that comes down to quarterback play. We got the full Trevor Lawrence Experience on Monday night, but when it mattered most, Lawrence delivered one of the best throws of his career on a gotta-have-it third down to Brian Thomas before capping the night with The Stumble in the Jungle.

Ultimately, this is a toss-up game and the runner-up for our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. I've been terrible at picking Jags games this year, so please take this one with a block of salt.

The pick: Seahawks 23 – Jaguars 21

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Chargers -3.5

Total: 43.5

We know the Dolphins are a bad team, but we're not quite sure what to make of the Chargers coming off of a second straight loss. Los Angeles jumped out to an early 10-0 lead over Washington at home on Sunday before falling to score over the final 47 minutes of game time.

Penalties plagued the Chargers all afternoon, while a Quentin Johnston fumble and a Justin Herbert (deflected) pick at the goal line ultimately helped hand the game to Washington. Credit to the Commanders, though, who ripped off 7.1 yards per play and ran for 163 yards behind the best game of Jacory Croskey-Merritt's young career.

This should be a good spot for the Chargers to bounce back, but they'll have to do it without Omarion Hampton, who joined Khalil Mack, Najee Harris and Rashawn Slater on IR with an ankle injury. It remains to be seen if Joe Alt will be available, but the Chargers' offense – which looked excellent to begin the season – has wilted in two straight games.

We'll still side with the much better coach/quarterback combination, but this feels like a major inflection-point game for LA with the Colts looming on the schedule in Week 7.

The pick: Chargers 24 – Dolphins 19

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -6.5

Total: 37.5

First off, 37.5 is just a quintessential Browns-Steelers total. We love to see it. Dillon Gabriel will make another start for Cleveland, which shipped Joe Flacco to the Bengals on Tuesday. Gabriel looked passable in his debut against Minnesota in London, completing 19-of-33 passes for 190 yards and two scores. Most importantly, he didn't turn the ball over, and had Cleveland been willing to be more aggressive late in the fourth quarter, the Browns may have been able to pull out a SU win.

Regardless, the Browns' passing game will likely continue to be fairly limited as Cleveland attempts to win games with a combination of a suffocating defense and Quinshon Judkins. The Steelers' conservative offense should play into Cleveland's hands, as Aaron Rodgers ranks dead-last in the NFL in average depth of target. For the most part, the Steelers struggle to generate big plays, though they've clawed their way to 3-1 with quality wins over the Pats and Vikings. 

Cleveland's defense should be able to limit Aaron Rodgers, so this game may come down to which version of the Steelers' defense shows up. Pittsburgh is allowing 5.7 yards per play (seventh-most) on the season but was able to hold down Carson Wentz (six sacks) and the Vikings in Dublin two weeks ago.

At the end of the day, we'll side with Pittsburgh to do just enough to win outright, but the Browns can cover the 6.5.

The pick: Steelers 19 – Browns 14

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Patriots -3.5

Total: 46.0

To finish out the early slate, we have our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. There were a few other candidates, but this is the game that's giving me the most trouble. Are the Pats as good as they looked in Buffalo on Sunday night? Does beating the Jaxson Dart Giants at home really mean anything for the Saints? Who's to say.

While I certainly view New England as the better team, I don't want to put too much stock into that win at Buffalo. It's absolutely a resume-builder, but the Pats have also taken a loss to the Raiders, barely beat the Dolphins and are only a few weeks removed from a five-turnover disaster against Pittsburgh. With the way the schedule lines up, the Pats are tracking as a likely playoff team, but I'm not ready to fully place them within the circle of trust.

Meanwhile, the Saints now have a win under their belt and continue to play competitive ball on a weekly basis (Seattle game exempted). Perhaps the upset of the season so far is that Spencer Rattler has only one interception, while the Saints have turned it over just three times as a team. Generating explosives has been a major problem, however. The Saints have just five plays of 20+ yards on the season.

As long as Rattler can play another clean game, the Saints can hang around at home.

The pick: Patriots 24 – Saints 21

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Raiders -3.5

Total: 41.5

Obviously this game was considered for the Stay-Away of the Week. But it almost felt a little too obvious. I'm not sure what to make of the Raiders at this point. Since picking up a Week 1 win over the Pats, the wheels have fallen off in three blowout losses to the Chargers, Commanders and Colts, with a sloppy loss to the Bears mixed in.

The Titans did the unthinkable and not only covered, but won outright last week, but we've already explicated the sequence of events required to produce that outcome. Cam Ward with time to throw can be a problem, but that win over Arizona didn't really change my overall read on the Titans.

We'll keep this one quick and side with the Raiders at home. If they find a way to lose this game, it'll be time to start a real dialogue on Geno Smith, whose 37.1 QBR is good for 27th in the NFL. For what it's worth, the Titans have dropped nine straight games ATS after a straight-up victory. 

The pick: Raiders 26 – Titans 20

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Bucs -3.0

Total: 47.5

The clear highlight of the late window takes us to Tampa Bay, home of what may be the most entertaining team in the NFL. Once again, the cardiac Bucs won in walk-off fashion last week after coming up just short against Philly in Week 4. Sitting at 4-1, Tampa's four victories have come by a combined nine points.

While the Bucs' defense suffered some letdowns against Seattle, it was arguably the best game of Baker Mayfield's career. Mayfield completed 29-of-33 passes for 379 yards and two touchdowns while leading five scoring drives in the Bucs' final six possessions. Even without Mike Evans and Bucky Irving, the Bucs have been consistently able to move the ball on quality defenses.

While San Francisco has to travel cross-country, the Niners do have a rest advantage having played on Thursday night in Week 5. It's anyone's guess what the injury report will look like come Sunday morning, but there's a real chance the Niners will again be without Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings and/or Ricky Pearsall. Those absences weren't an issue in a shocking upset of the Rams that moved Mac Jones to 3-0 as the Niners' fill-in this season.

For as much as I respect the way Jones has played thus far, it's a tough ask for San Francisco to pull off a second straight upset. We'll roll with Tampa Bay to win and cover the number at home.

The pick: Bucs 30 – 49ers 25

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -14.5

Total: 43.5

We've seen some massive line movement with the news on Tuesday that the Bengals acquired Joe Flacco, who continues his quest to play for every team in the AFC North. After opening Green Bay -14.5, the line plummeted all the way to -14.0 after the Flacco news.

Suffice it to say the Bengals are in a desperate situation and will now turn to Flacco to attempt to salvage their season. While Flacco, in theory, provides more of a floor than Jake Browning, he'll be in a tough spot with just a few days to get acclimated and learn a new playbook. The Bengals' complete lack of a running game is also an issue. Through four games, Chase Brown has 160 yards on 65 carries, and the Bengals are one of four teams (NOR, PIT, SF) yet to record a 20-plus-yard run.

With the Packers coming off of a bye, this should be an obvious bounceback spot after a stunning loss to Flacco's Browns in Week 3 and an ultra-depressing 40-40 tie against Dallas in Week 4. That Dallas game raised some concerns about the Packers' defense, and I'll be curious to see whether that unit returns to its previously dominant form.

We'll take Green Bay to cruise to a win at home, but the Flacco-led Bengals cover in a similar script to last week's 13-point loss to Detroit.

The pick: Packers 34 – Bengals 21

Sunday Night Football

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -2.5

Total: 50.5

The Chiefs have already been underdogs at home twice this season, but they're holding as 2.5-point favorites as they welcome in the 4-1 Lions. Sitting at 2-3, KC still deserves the benefit of the doubt, but the Chiefs have now lost three one-score games after going 11-0 in those situations a year ago.

The loss to Jacksonville on Monday night, which swung on a 99-yard Devin Lloyd pick-six, was shockingly un-Chiefs-like. Since Patrick Mahomes arrived, that was the type of game the Chiefs always find a way to win. And the type of game the Jags always find a way to lose.

Nevertheless, Kansas City is still well within striking distance in the AFC West but will face a difficult schedule the rest of the way, including this matchup against Detroit. Since coming out flat in Week 1 against Green Bay, the Lions have looked like the Lions of old. The running game (19th in rushing EPA) isn't quite as polished as it was a year ago, but Detroit is No. 1 in EPA/pass and fourth in overall offensive success rate on the year.

Detroit is also 4-1 ATS, continuing a monster trend that dates back five seasons. Since 2021, the Lions are 51-21-1 ATS in the regular season.

The pick: Lions 31 – Chiefs 28

Monday Night Football Doubleheader

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Bills -4.5

Total: 48.5

Buffalo became the last team to fall from the unbeatens in Week 5, losing 23-20 at home to the Patriots. It already felt like the Bills had been semi-sleepwalking through the early part of the season, and three killer turnovers on Sunday night ultimately did them in. Still, the Bills are rightful favorites in the AFC and will look to bounce back on the road in Atlanta.

Coming out of a bye with some momentum, Atlanta was able to shake off The Loss to Carolina in Week 3 with an impressive win over Washington. It was an encouraging day for Michael Penix, who got Drake London involved early and shook off a brutal performance in the Panthers game.

There's no question the Bills are the better side, but like every team in the NFL right now, they're far from perfect. Playing at home with extra time to prepare, we'll take the Falcons to ride Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and keep this game close well into the fourth quarter.

The pick: Bills 27 – Falcons 23

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders

Spread: Commanders -4.5

Total: 50.5

I'll say it: These are two pretty solid games for yet another "why are there two games this week? But not last week?" Monday night double-header (kind of). While Bills-Falcons nears halftime, we'll get the Bears off of a bye taking on Jayden Daniels and a Commanders team that hopes to get Terry McLaurin back this week.

The Commanders' rallying back from an early deficit to suffocate the Chargers was one of the more impressive wins of Week 5. After giving up two scores and punting on their first two drives, Washington scored on its next four and added a 13-play, 99-yard insurance touchdown for good measure. Despite starting Marcus Mariota for two games, and a faceplant against Green Bay in Week 2, Washington is up to eighth in offensive EPA and second in EPA per rush.

Coming off of two straight wins over the Cowboys and Raiders, the Bears remain a difficult evaluation. The win over Dallas was impressive, but I'd be hard pressed to say the same about the Vegas game. Chicago was out-gained 357 to 271, averaged just 4.2 yards per play and went 1-for-4 in the red zone. I hesitate to say the Raiders should have won that game, but they probably should have won that game.

Growing pains aside, it does feel like the Bears are moving in the right direction and should provide a worthy challenge to a Washington defense. In a rematch of the Hail Mary Game, we'll side with the Commanders at home, but I don't love this one.

The pick: Commanders 30 – Bears 24