Beating the Book: NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Week 12 edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

Week 11 was a slate to forget for us, as we went just 5-8-2 ATS and an even-more-dreadful 8-7 SU. While I'm trying to avoid invoking the "I have a one-week-old baby" card, it's tough to ignore the impact that spending most of last week at the hospital had on my NFL handicapping. Unfortunately, the results speak for themselves.

The leadup to NFL Week 12 has been a bit more normal here at the Whalen household, so we'll get back to the usual drill of providing picks and write-ups for all 15 games. Those write-ups will be a bit more brief, but we'll do our best to bounce back on what should be an action-packed slate.

As of publication, we have three games with a double-digit spread, headlined by the Ravens sitting as 13.5-point favorites at home against the Jets. Seattle is a 13.0-point favorite in Nashville, while the Lions are giving 10.5 at home to the Giants.

You can find my thoughts and score predictions on each of those games, and the entire NFL Week 12 slate, below. As always, our best bet of the week will be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 11:

• Steelers -5.5 vs. Bengals: While the Bengals kept this game mostly respectable, they are now officially the worst defense in the DVOA era.
• Seahawks +3.0 at Rams: Despite a disaster game from Sam Darnold, Seattle found a way to hang around and had a 61-yard field-goal attempt to win the game on the final play.

Worst calls of Week 11:

• Falcons -3.5 vs. Panthers: Never, ever, ever trust the Atlanta Falcons, even when they have a two-score lead at the half.
• Chargers -3.0 at Jaguars: I feel like I usually have a pretty good read on the Jags, but I will admit that when I saw Tony Boselli call this the biggest game in franchise history, I knew we may be in trouble.

Last week: 5-8-2 ATS; 8-7 SU; best bet lost (LAC -3.0)

On the season: 83-77-4 ATS; 109-55-1 SU; 6-5 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Spread: Bills -5.5

Total: 43.5

One week after pulling off a wild come-from-behind win over the Jags, the Texans were able to narrowly avoid disaster against Tennessee on Sunday. It wasn't pretty, but Houston continues to prove that its defense is elite enough to keep it in games against just about anyone.

I don't expect the Texans to lie down here, but with Davis Mills making another start in place of C.J. Stroud, the Bills should be able to pull out a win on the road, even if I don't trust their 31st-ranked run defense.

The pick: Bills 24 – Texans 20

Sunday Early Slate

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -13.5

Total: 44.5

After starting 1-5, the Ravens have now won four games in a row over Chicago, Miami, Minnesota and Cleveland. There's a case to be made that none of those wins have been overly impressive, but nonetheless Baltimore has more than worked its way back into the AFC North race.

I'd still like to see more out of Lamar Jackson, who hasn't truly looked like himself since returning, but this should be a nice get-right spot for Baltimore after facing an elite defense in Cleveland last week.

The pick: Ravens 31 – Jets 17

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -2.5

Total: 45.5

I can't quite make this our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week, but just know that it's a strong contender. As of publication, it's still unclear if Aaron Rodgers will be able to play through a wrist injury, while Jaylen Warren has also been held out of practice throughout the week. Meanwhile, the Bears have won seven of their last eight games, but those wins have come over Dallas, Las Vegas, Washington, Cincinnati, the Giants and Minnesota – not exactly a murderer's row of opposing quarterbacks.

Really, this feels like the Potential Fraud Bowl. We have to respect Chicago's 7-3 record, but the Bears have a negative point differential and seem to benefit from an inordinate amount of breaks – dare I say lucky breaks – on a weekly basis.

Even if it's Mason Rudolph at quarterback, this is a game the Steelers can steal on defense. But they'll need to avoid committing the turnovers that have gone a long way toward propelling Chicago to this impressive start.

This is a total toss-up, but with the number at 2.5, we'll side with the Bears at home to win and cover what promises to be yet another bizarre game.

The pick: Bears 23 – Steelers 20

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Patriots -6.5

Total: 50.5

The Patriots have moved well beyond Fraud Watch territory, but every week I'm still waiting for them to get tripped up and it simply hasn't happened. Last week's comfortable win over the Jets marked eight in a row for New England, which still has the second-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. We can quibble about the schedule, but the Pats have done nothing but take care of business, including signature wins at Buffalo and at Tampa Bay during that run.

The NFL's sixth-best offense in terms of EPA per play now gets to face, quite literally, the worst defense in modern NFL history. Even despite holding Pittsburgh to 343 yards of offense – the Bengals' second-best mark of the season – Cincinnati has officially taken the crown as the lowest-rated defense in the history of DVOA.

It's worth noting that Joe Burrow claims he has a chance to return this week. On paper, that would be a major boost for the Bengals, though it's fair to question whether Burrow – a notorious slow-starter – could simply step back in and immediately play at an elite level. Even if he does play, he won't have Ja'Marr Chase (suspension) at his disposal.

At some point, the Pats are going to lose a game we don't see coming, but we'll roll with Drake Maye and Co. to roll to another win this week.

The pick: Patriots 34 – Bengals 27

New York Giants at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -10.5

Total: 49.5

Coming off of a dominant performance against Washington in Week 10, the Lions managed just nine points and 243 yards of offense in an ugly loss to Philly on Sunday night. Detroit has had a few of those games this season, but if we know anything about the Lions, it's that they overwhelmingly tend to bounce back in a big way. As a tandem, Dan Campbell and Jared Goff are 17-12-1 SU and 22-8 ATS off of a straight-up loss, having won and covered 13 in a row in this spot.

The Giants appear to be trending toward getting Jaxson Dart back this week, but we could see a more-limited version of Dart as a runner with Mike Kafka now at the controls. I don't expect this be a complete laugher, but we'll continue to ride the trend with Detroit – especially at home.

The pick: Lions 35 – Giants 21

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -6.5

Total: 41.5

This is a massive game for the Packers, who currently occupy the No. 6 seed in the NFC but still have two games against Minnesota, two against Chicago and one against Detroit – next week, in fact – remaining on their schedule. With the Bears finding ways to win every week, Green Bay's room for error is much smaller than it looked a few weeks ago.

The Packers come into Week 12 banged up all over the roster, but particularly at wide receiver, where Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, Dontayvion Wicks and Savion Williams have all been limited throughout the week. On a more positive note, Josh Jacobs avoided a serious injury, but it remains to be seen if he'll be fully cleared by Sunday.

Either way, this is a dicey spot for Green Bay's struggling offense against Brian Flores' defense. On the other side, the Packers should have some distinct advantages over J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings' offense, which finished with just 265 total yards against the Bears last week.

We'll side with the Packers to pull out a win at home, but I'll be surprised if they do it in convincing fashion.

The pick: Packers 21 – Vikings 17

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -3.5

Total: 49.5

With sincere apologies to Falcons-Saints in the late window, this is pretty easily the game of the week. I've been extremely hesitant to jump off of the Chiefs, who we took to win and cover last week, but we're entering uncharted territory in the Patrick Mahomes era. Even against an elite defense, it was alarming to see Mahomes out-played by Bo Nix last week – especially given how the Chiefs' offense had been trending since the return of Rashee Rice.

We're not quite in full-on desperation mode, but a loss here would give the Chiefs very little wiggle room the rest of the way. The Chiefs do get this game at home, but the Colts, off of a bye, are not exactly the opponent you want to see on the schedule when you really need a win. Through 10 games, Indy still ranks No. 1 in EPA per play, No. 1 in success rate and No. 1 in EPA per rush.

Slowing down Jonathan Taylor will be the key, but if Kansas City can force Daniel Jones into a turnover or two, that could be enough to hang on for a narrow win. One interesting trend to note: over the last 25 seasons, teams sitting at 5-5 (or worse) SU who are favored against an elite opponent (win% of at latest 80%) are 14-0 SU and 12-0-2 ATS.

The pick: Chiefs 28 – Colts 24

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Seahawks -13.0

Total: 40.5

While Baltimore is our biggest favorite of the week, the Seahawks are laying a big number on the road against the 1-9 Titans. Thus far, double-digit favorites have been a strong play, going 12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS, with the Packers' loss to the Panthers standing as the lone SU blemish.

Seattle is coming off of a 21-19 loss to the Rams in LA, but I didn't come away from the game feeling any worse about the Seahawks. Sure, Sam Darnold throwing four interceptions wasn't a great sign, but despite that, Seattle still had a reasonable field goal attempt on the final play to potentially steal a win. Short fields were a factor, but the Seahawks ultimately out-gained the Rams 414 to 249 and averaged 5.2 YPP against an elite defense.

Going from facing the Rams to the Titans is a massive step down in overall team quality, and while this could be a potential letdown spot, I think too highly of Seattle's defense to allow Tennessee to keep this close.

The pick: Seahawks 28 – Titans 13

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Jaguars -3.0

Total: 47.5

Jacksonville's dominant win over the Chargers last week was one of my biggest whiffs of the season. No two ways about it. Coming off of a horrendous loss to Houston in Week 10, I did not foresee the Jags coming out with their best two-way performance of the season and one of the five best defensive YPP games in the NFL this year. The Jags held LA to just 135 yards of total offense and built a 35-6 lead before Justin Herbert was ultimately knocked out of the game.

The thing about the Jags, though, is you still never know which version of this team you'll get on a weekly basis. On paper, they should have a good shot to take care of business on the road against a team that's been hammered by the Seahawks and Niners the last two weeks. But it would also be very Jags to find a way to lose – or very nearly lose – this game, much like they've done against Cincinnati, Houston, and Las Vegas. 

I like Jacoby Brissett's chances to move the ball on the Jags' defense, but the absence of Marvin Harrison Jr. means Brissett will once again have limited playmakers at his disposal. Still, I fully expect Arizona to make this a very difficult game, especially with Jacksonville coming off of essentially a best-case-scenario showing last week.

The pick: Cardinals 24 – Jaguars 23

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Raiders -3.5

Total: 36.5

It should go without saying that this is our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. An elite Browns defense going up against a mistake-prone Raiders offense that can't run the ball. A sometimes respectable Raiders defense going up against Shedeur Sanders making his first NFL start. Very little would surprise me here.

One thing I am fairly sure of is that we won't see a ton of points. Maybe Geno Smith is able to hit a few plays downfield, but the Browns will be prepared for what will likely be a pass-heavy attack, by default. Meanwhile, Sanders was abysmal in his debut last week after Dillon Gabriel was knocked out of the game, completing just 4-of-16 passes for 47 yards and a terrible pick. 

The general assumption is that Sanders will simply be that bad again, but there is something to be said for entering the week as the starter and being able to prepare as such. I'm not saying I expect Sanders to light it up, but it has to be better than last week.

I could drone on and on about some of the minor factors at play, but the bottom line is that neither of these teams can be trusted, and this game will likely come down to which offense commits fewer critical mistakes.

The pick: Raiders 17 – Browns 12

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Eagles -3.5

Total: 47.5

Fun game in the NFC East and a rematch from a closer-than-expected Week 1 matchup. Since losing back-to-back games in Weeks 5 and 6, the Eagles have ripped off four straight wins over Minnesota, the Giants, Green Bay and Detroit. While Philly scored only 26 combined points in the last two games, it was able to hold the Packers and Lions to just 16.

Philly's defense is trending in the right direction, but the Cowboys' offense should be a worthy test. Entering Week 12, Dallas ranks fifth in EPA per play, seventh in success rate and eighth in EPA per pass. A win over the Raiders last week may not be the best measuring stick, but it was a much-needed bounceback after back-to-back losses.

As has been the case for most of the last two seasons, it feels like the Eagles will find a way to grind out a win, but Dallas has to be considered a live dog here.

The pick: Eagles 24 – Cowboys 21

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -1.5

Total: 39.0

Not much to say about a matchup between bottom-feeders in the NFC South. The Saints are sitting about where we expected, while the wheels have completely fallen off for Atlanta, which blew a two-score lead and ultimately fell in overtime last week against Carolina. That loss officially ended any hope of a second-half turnaround, and Atlanta will now play out the string without Michael Penix. Drake London is also trending toward missing this game, leaving an already-thin offense without by far its best pass-catcher.

We'll see Kirk Cousins in place of Penix, which shouldn't inspire much confidence. Cousins, of course, started The Letdown against Miami in Week 8 (also without London), completing 21-of-31 passes for 173 yards. For the season, he's 32-of-52 for just 250 yards and 4.8 yards per attempt.

This should be a run-heavy spot for the Falcons, though we'll see how much success they ultimately have against a Saints defense that surprisingly ranks fourth in EPA per rush on the season.

I don't have a great read on the side, but I do like the U39.5.

The pick: Saints 19 – Falcons 16

Sunday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -6.5

Total: 49.5

Ever since getting tripped up by the Niners in Week 5, the Rams have rolled through their schedule, piling up five straight wins, including four by at least 14 points. Last week against the Seahawks got a little dicier than it should have, but LA ultimately held on for a 21-19 win to move to 8-2.

The Bucs, meanwhile, continue to deal with a rash of injuries as they've seen their grip on the NFC South dwindle. Coming off of back-to-back losses to Buffalo and New England, the Bucs need to get healthy offensively. As of publication, Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin and virtually the entire offensive line have been limited throughout the week. Egbuka and Mayfield – both dealing with an illness – should be good to go, but the attrition elsewhere is finally starting to catch up.

Frankly, the Rams are not the team you want to see on the schedule right now. The passing game continues to operate at an elite level, while the defense has climbed to No. 2 in EPA per play, No. 3 in EPA per pass and No. 2 in EPA per rush.

Given Mayfield's history, the Bucs will probably find a way to make this a one-score game in the fourth quarter, but it's really tough to fade a healthy Rams team right now – especially with Tampa Bay surrendering 849 combined yards to Bills and Pats.

The pick: Rams 30 – Buccaneers 23

Monday Night Football

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -7.0

Total: 49.0

This is not a game most would have circled heading into the year, but Panthers-Niners somehow registers as a really intriguing standalone game – and arguably the biggest game for Carolina in nearly a decade.

I'm on the record as a Panthers skeptic, but after sweeping the Falcons, Carolina now sits at 6-5 with a chance to take over first place in the division should the Bucs lose on Sunday night. While the Panthers did fall behind 21-7 in the second quarter last week, credit Bryce Young for throwing them back into the game behind a career-best performance against a fairly credible defense. 

The problem is that Young's performance – 31-of-45, 448 yards, 3 TD – runs completely contrary to the quarterback he's been this season. Prior to Week 11, Young had failed to crack 200 yards in seven straight games, averaging under 150 yards in that sample. The 49ers defense is gettable enough, though, that Young should be able to find some success.

San Francisco's defense has given up 400-plus yards in three of its last four games, though the run defense has been about league average. We'll see how much success Rico Dowdle has early on, but if the Niners are able to hold up, it'll be on Young to keep up with a Niners' offense that's scored 41, 26 and 34 points over the last three weeks.

The Niners should be able to take care of business at home, but we'll happily grab points with the Panthers. San Francisco is just 1-3 ATS at home this season and they've failed to cover 12 in a row at home directly after a SU victory. 

The pick: 49ers 24 – Panthers 20