Beating the Book: NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Week 9 edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

We're coming off of another positive showing, going 8-5 ATS in Week 8 to push our season-long mark to 68-51-2 ATS. However, we made the Falcons – the Atlanta Falcons – our best bet, which will remain a massive black mark on the ledger for the rest of the season. I could sit here and say well, I made the pick on Thursday but even with how the Falcons' injury report devolved, we never should have walked into such an obvious trap.

Nevertheless, we now move on to our spread picks for NFL Week 9 – a slate headlined by a massive AFC showdown in Buffalo. As of publication, the Chiefs sit as 1.5-point favorites over the Bills, despite Buffalo demolishing the Panthers last week off of a bye.

The Los Angeles Rams, fresh off of their bye, are the biggest favorite of the week, laying 14.5 at home against the Saints. Green Bay is a heavy favorite over Carolina, while the Chargers and Lions could push closer to double-digit favorites by the end of the week.

As of Thursday, eight games – more than half of the slate – feature a road favorite. After two straight dominant weeks for favorites (21-7 ATS), we should look to approach Week 9 with caution.

You can find my thoughts on the entire Week 9 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 8:

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• Bills -7.5 at Panthers: Buffalo messed around a bit early in the game, but as it turns out, fading Andy Dalton, who finished with 1.1 fantasy points, was the correct call.
• Packers -3.0: Following a sluggish, mistake-prone first half, the Packers turned it on after halftime behind one of the best games of Jordan Love's career.

Worst calls of Week 8:

• Vikings +3.5 at Chargers: Perhaps if an early pick-six isn't called back the game plays out differently, but probably not. Really at no point did Minnesota feel like it generated any momentum on either side of the ball.
• Falcons -7.0 vs. Dolphins: Deep down, we knew better than to trust the Falcons, who turned in their second complete no-show of the season.

Last week: 8-5 ATS; 9-4 SU; best bet lost (ATL -7.0)

On the season: 68-51-2 ATS; 83-38-1 SU; 5-3 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Ravens -7.5

Total: 50.5

Playing without Lamar Jackson last week, the Ravens were able to survive at home against the Bears behind a strong fill-in performance by Snoop Huntley. All indications – we think, at least – are that Jackson will be back this week, but there's a chance he could be less than 100 percent on a short week.

Either way, the Ravens won the game they needed to and finally carry some momentum into what should be a friendly stretch of schedule. Miami is coming off of an impressive beatdown of the Falcons, but it's still very difficult to trust this defense – particularly against the run – against the Jackson-Derrick Henry combination.

I don't expect to see the full-on, MVP version of Jackson right away, however, so the door could be open for the Dolphins to hang around.

The pick: Ravens 30 – Dolphins 23

Sunday Early Slate

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bears -2.5

Total: 51.5

Very, very difficult game to evaluate. And as such, we'll go ahead and make this our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. I really want no part of betting either of these teams. Just when we were ready to (maybe) trust the Bengals, they blew multiple two-score leads and ultimately lost at home to the shorthanded Jets.

Meanwhile, the Bears were gifted a golden opportunity to win a fifth straight game against the Lamar-less Ravens but instead struggled in the red zone and let up 30 points against a limited offense. While Chicago did out-gain Baltimore and played a fairly clean game, Nate Wiggins picking off Caleb Williams deep in Bears territory proved to be the difference-maker.

Even with the Bengals' struggles on defense, the offense should be capable of moving the ball on a pedestrian Bears defense that ranks 29th in success rate. If Cincy can keep its resurgent run game going, the Bengals will have a chance to win a shootout. But at the end of the day, the Cincinnati defense is simply too much of a liability right now. 

With Joe Flacco's status very much up in the air, we'll take the Bears to win and cover as a road favorite.

The pick: Bears 28 – Bengals 24

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -8.5

Total: 47.5

Fresh off of putting up 164 yards of offense on Thursday night in LA, the Vikings now head to Detroit to face the Lions off of a bye.

They'll do with J.J. McCarthy back at quarterback after Carson Wentz underwent season-ending shoulder surgery following the TNF beatdown. The return of McCarthy is obviously a big deal for the Vikings, as far as figuring out their future goes, but it's tough to view him as a significant upgrade over Wentz, given what we saw from McCarthy in the first two games of the season. He'll bring some mobility, but the Lions will dare him to throw downfield on a defense that's getting healthier and was able to hold down the Bucs with a depleted secondary in Week 7.

This does feel like an inflated line for a divisional game, but it's a sign of the market's lack of faith in McCarthy, as well as a strong belief in Detroit, which tends to take care of business in these spots.

The pick: Lions 31 – Vikings 17

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -13.5

Total: 44.5

The second-biggest spread of the week brings us to Lambeau Field as the Packers return home after logging a signature road win in Pittsburgh on Sunday night. After a lackluster, mistake-filled first half, Green Bay hit the gas after halftime behind one of the better games of Jordan Love's career.

The Packers' running game still leaves plenty to be desired, and it's fair to wonder if they almost have too many options in the passing game, but the emergence of Tucker Kraft as one of the league's premier tight ends has helped supercharge an offense that ranks second in EPA per play, fourth in success rate and first in EPA per pass.

The Panthers, meanwhile, were on the wrong side of a predictable beatdown against the Bills. Credit to Carolina for hanging around early, but the defense caved in the second half, and Andy Dalton looked about as washed as possible.

With this number sitting at 13.0, I'm inclined to believe there's a decent chance we'll see Dalton again this week, but the Panthers are hoping to get Bryce Young back. We likely won't have a final decision until later in the week. Either way, the Packers' pass rush will be a major issue for Carolina, which could again be down multiple starters on the OLine.

With that said, Carolina will test the Packers in the running game, and if Bryce Young returns, it wouldn't be a shock if the Panthers hang around. The Packers don't tend to blow teams out, and this could be a minor letdown spot coming off of the Steelers game and looking ahead to a showdown against Philly in Week 10.

The pick: Packers 28 – Panthers 17

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -1.5

Total: 39.5

Tricky game to evaluate and easily our lowest total on the Week 9 board – and justifiably so, as both defenses rank in the top five in EPA per play, total EPA, success rate and EPA per pass.

Both teams are also coming off of their best offensive games of the season. C.J. Stroud turned back the clock to 2023 last week, completing 30-of-39 passes for 318 yards and two touchdowns without Nico Collins. Meanwhile, Bo Nix shook off an early interception to throw four touchdowns and lead the Broncos to a string of seven scores in eight drives in a blowout win over the Cowboys.

What we need to keep in mind is that Dallas hands out points to everyone. And the 49ers were about as depleted as it gets on defense. So it's tough to know how much to take away from Week 8 on both sides. 

Ultimately, I see this as a lower-scoring, defensive game that Denver can win by a field goal. The absence of Patrick Surtain II absolutely matters, but the Texans' offensive line is still the biggest liability in this matchup.

The pick: Broncos 20 – Texans 17

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -5.5

Total: 45.5

We can quibble about the schedule all we want, but the Patriots have now won five games in a row and sit at 6-2 atop the AFC. Facing the Browns last week could have been a potential trip-up spot, but the Pats were able to out-score Cleveland 23-6 in the second half behind another strong performance from Drake Maye, who was under siege by Miles Garrett all afternoon.

If you're wondering, the Pats are +110 to win the AFC East (BUF is -140), while Maye is down to 5/1 to win the MVP, trailing only Patrick Mahomes (+120) and Josh Allen (+350). 

On the other side of this game, we need to have a conversation about the Atlanta Falcons. My goodness. Atlanta is now responsible for the two biggest no-shows of the season: a 30-0 loss to Carolina in Week 3 and a somehow-more-embarrassing 34-10 beatdown at the hands of the Dolphins – the Miami Dolphins – on Sunday. At no point did Atlanta threaten to win either game, and a killer Bijan Robinson fumble in the third quarter ended any hopes of a Falcons mini-rally.

If nothing else, Week 8 reinforced the notion that the Falcons simply cannot be trusted. But if you've studied this team in recent years, we also know they tend to show up when they've been written off. We're not going as far as to pick the Falcons to win this game, but assuming Michael Penix and Drake London are back, this could be a spot where Atlanta bounces back and gives New England a scare at home.

The pick: Patriots 25 – Falcons 22

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants

Spread: 49ers -2.5

Total: 48.5

With all of the injuries in San Francisco, the Niners are an exceptionally difficult team to bet right now. Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall and Bryce Huff might return this week. But they also might not. And we likely won't have an answer until closer to Sunday. Either way, injuries continued to mount on defense last week, so the door will be open for the Giants to keep this game close.

The loss of Cam Skattebo is a tough one for the Giants, who will now turn back to Tyrone Tracy with Devin Singletary mixing in as the secondary back. While the final result against Philly wasn't pretty, the Giants were able to hang around for three quarters until the defense finally gave way. By the end of the afternoon, Philly out-gained New York 427 to 246 and ran for 276 yards with both Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby breaking the century mark.

Thanks in large part to that game, the Giants now rank dead-last in the NFL in EPA per rush allowed, so this should be a solid bounceback spot for Christian McCaffrey, who was bottled up by the Houston defense last week. Part of the issue for San Francisco was simply an overall lack of volume, as the Niners ran only 14 plays in the first half and lost the time of possession battle 41:22 to 18:38.

We're still in wait-and-see mode for this game pending the Niners' injury report. I like this as a bounceback spot for San Francisco, but the Giants have played well at home and could threaten to win outright.

The pick: 49ers 24 – Giants 23

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Colts -3.0

Total: 49.5

At some point, the Colts' offense is going to get tripped up, but they've shown very few signs of that day arriving anytime soon. Coming off of a 38-14 win over the Titans, Indy has now scored 30-plus in four straight games and in six of eight games overall. To no surprise, Indy is still No. 1 in EPA per play, success rate and EPA per rush, but the Colts are now No. 2 in EPA per pass behind the Packers.

It's still hard to believe Daniel Jones is at the helm of the league's best offense, but Jones continues to play at an elite level and is surrounded by one of the better all-around supporting casts in the NFL. It goes without saying that slowing down this offense will be a massive challenge for a Steelers defense that's tumbled to 25th in EPA per play and 23rd in success rate after giving up 35 to the Packers – including a 28-point second half – on Sunday night.

If betting against the Steelers as a home dog for the second week is wrong, then I don't want to be right.

The pick: Colts 34 – Steelers 24

Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Chargers -8.5

Total: 43.5

This line hasn't quite reached double-digits, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get there by the end of the week. While the Chargers are coming off of an extremely convincing win over Minnesota on Thursday, they've had their fair share of slip-ups already, falling to the Giants and Commanders, getting blown out by the Colts, and nearly losing in Miami back in Week 6.

With that said, it's becoming increasingly difficult to justify taking points with the Titans each week. Tennessee sits at 2-6 ATS, with the two covers coming in The Game against Arizona and back in Week 1 at Denver. Worse yet, the Titans are facing big numbers every week and still failing to cover by 7.5 points per game – the second-worst mark in the league behind only the Raiders (-7.7).

Each week, we get a few flashes from Cam Ward, but the supporting cast is abysmal, the defense is banged up, and unsurprisingly the Titans are selling off pieces ahead of the deadline. If Jeffery Simmons is back this week, maybe Tennessee can muck things up and make this a game, but we have to roll with the Chargers here.

The pick: Chargers 27 – Titans 17

Sunday Afternoon Slate

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -14.5

Total: 44.5

We kick off the late window with the most-lopsided spread of the week. The Rams are coming out of a bye and should get Puka Nacua back, white the Saints have officially pulled the plug on Spencer Rattler.

For the first month-and-a-half, Rattler did a good job of game-managing, avoiding turnovers and keeping games close well into the second half. That completely evaporated over the last two games, so the 1-7 Saints will move on to second-round pick Tyler Shough, who came on in relief of Rattler in a 23-3 loss to the Bucs.

While this is obviously a brutal spot for Shough to make his first start, the Saints entrusted him to throw the ball 30 times over the final 19 minutes of last week's loss. The results were… mixed, as Shough completed 17 of those attempts for 128 yards and a pick. Chances are, pivoting from Rattler to Shough doesn't make much of a difference, but he at least provides a mystery factor, from a preparation standpoint.

This is a tough number because the Rams don't tend to blow teams out. And the Saints defense has actually played fairly well this season, given the circumstances and personnel. We'll side with the Rams' defense to make this a long day for Shough, but the Saints can cover the 14.5.

The pick: Rams 27 – Saints 13

Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Jaguars -2.5

Total: 44.5

Should go without saying that this is pretty easily the highlight of the three-game late window, as the Jags head out to the desert with both teams coming out of a bye. Week 8 was a much-needed reprieve for both teams. Jacksonville has lost two in a row, while the Raiders have dropped five of their last six, with a win over the lowly Titans as the lone bright spot over the last month-and-a-half.

Health-wise, the Jags hope to get Devin Lloyd back, while Vegas will have Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers back in the mix. It remains to be seen if Maxx Crosby will be available, however, as he did not practice on Wednesday.

In terms of talent, this is a game the Jags should win, but it feels like they've turned back into The Jags Of Old the last couple of weeks, so this is a tough game to evaluate. If Jacksonville can jumpstart its running game, the Jags are the right side, but I won't be surprised if Geno Smith is able to get his act together coming out of the bye.

This is a big-time stay-away for me, but with the number hanging at 2.5, we'll take the Jags.

The pick: Jaguars 28 – Raiders 24

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Chiefs -1.5

Total: 51.5

All eyes will be on Jags-Raiders in the late window, but hopefully the league is able to drum up some interest in this game. Both teams are coming off of blowout wins in Week 8, with KC handling business against the Commanders on Monday night and the Bills putting a 40-burger on Andy Dalton and the Panthers.

While that was a much-needed bounceback for the Bills, who dropped two in a row heading into their Week 7 bye, there's a reason the Chiefs are coming to Buffalo as road favorites. After a rocky start, KC is back to certified wagon status, and the offense – which had already been trending up – has been pushed to a new level since Rashee Rice made his return. Over the last two weeks, Rice has amassed 16 catches for 135 yards and three touchdowns on 19 targets.

Containing the Chiefs' offense will obviously be key for Buffalo, and the Bills will have to do it without Ed Oliver, who was placed on IR with a biceps injury early this week. On balance, the Bills' run defense has struggled this season, though the Chiefs will (likely) be without Isiah Pacheco. That leaves Kareem Hunt as the RB1, and we should see a decent amount of Brashard Smith as a more-explosive secondary option.

With how dominant the Chiefs have looked for the last few weeks, it feels like they have to be the side. But we also know Buffalo will show up at home in this spot, having won four regular-season matchups in a row against KC. 

At the end of the day, Kansas City could probably play its B+ game and still come out with a win. Conversely, it's tough to envision a path for Buffalo without a superhuman effort from Josh Allen. While that's very much on the table, the Chiefs are the side.

The pick: Chiefs 34 – Bills 31

Sunday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders

Spread: Seahawks -3.0

Total: 45.5

Sunday night brings us yet another road favorite, as the Seahawks come out of their Week 8 bye and travel cross-country to face a reeling Commanders team. Coming into the year, we knew Washington was an obvious regression candidate, but injuries have played a major role in the Commanders' 3-5 record. After missing his third game of the season last week, Jayden Daniels will return Sunday night, but Terry McLaurin has already been ruled out, while Laremy Tunsil's status is up in the air.

Sitting at 5-2, Seattle is a road favorite for a reason, but this could be a tricky spot against a cornered animal in Washington. If the Commanders fall to 3-6, any hopes of a return to the postseason could be cooked – especially with the Lions looming on the schedule in Week 10.

Deep down, this feels like a game Seattle should win, but we'll take the Commanders to ride a big performance from Daniels to an outright home victory. 

The pick: Commanders 27 – Seahawks 24

Monday Night Football

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -2.5

Total: 53.5

We conclude the week with an interesting matchup between two teams that could rightfully view this as a must-win game. Sitting at 2-5, Arizona's season is already on the brink, and a loss here would all but close the book on any chance of a second-half run. It's too early to write off the Cowboys, who get the Raiders in Week 10, but after that, they get the Eagles, Chiefs and Lions in consecutive weeks.

Defensively, Dallas continues to be a disaster, so assuming Kyler Murray returns for Arizona, this should be a spot where the Cardinals can take advantage of a unit that ranks 31st in EPA per play, success rate, EPA per pass and EPA per rush. Thus far, Dallas has allowed at least 30 points in five of seven games, with the outliers coming against Philly in Week 1 (24 points) and Washington in Week 6 – a game Jayden Daniels departed due to injury.

On the other side of the ball, Dallas rates out as one of the best offenses in the NFL, though it's coming off of a tough showing against Denver last week in what was easily Dak Prescott's worstgame of the season.

As usual with the Cowboys, this will likely be a high-scoring, back-and-forth game. We'll side with the home team with the number sitting at 2.5, but this is in stay-away territory.

The pick: Cowboys 30 – Cardinals 27