I use several RotoWire tools to analyze matchups, starting with Box Score Breakdown, which gives me a clear view of snaps, routes and other usage stats from the previous week. NFL defense vs. position stats identify exploitable matchups, while NFL advanced stats provide me with emerging trends. And I monitor the NFL injury report and NFL player news to see how roles and NFL depth charts may shift for the current week.
Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.
Start/Upgrade 👍
Quarterbacks 👍
Brock Purdy (vs. TEN) — 37% started
Start Over — Baker Mayfield (vs. ATL), Jared Goff (at LAR), Bo Nix (vs. GB), Jordan Love (at DEN)
Six of the last seven QBs to face Tennessee threw for multiple touchdowns, with Davis Mills (284 total yards, one TD) being the lone exception. The Titans have actually done a good job defending the run since a Week 10 bye, but they still rank Bottom 5 in a slew of key efficiency stats against the pass, including YPA (8.0, 31st) and passer rating (103.7, 30th). San Francisco's implied total (28.5) is second-highest in the league for Week 15.
- Other Good Matchups: Lamar Jackson (at CIN), Matthew Stafford (vs. DET), C.J. Stroud (vs. ARZ), Marcus Mariota (at NYG)
Running Backs 👍
Woody Marks (vs. ARZ) — 45% started
Start Over — Omarion Hampton (at KC), Kenneth Walker (vs. IND), Kenneth Gainwell (vs. MIA)
Marks has grown on me some, despite his average speed and lack of explosive runs. He does the little things well, and has shown some elusiveness, leading to a level of trust that produces strong workloads even when his touches aren't gaining many yards. In fact, Marks has five straight games with at least 16 touches and 41 snaps, despite producing a long gain of just 21 yards in that stretch.
He'll be busy again this Sunday, with Nick Chubb (rib) banged up and potentially limited/absent in a game where the Texans are favored by more than a TD. Marks has an ankle injury of his own, but he made a quick return to Sunday's game at Kansas City and then a quick return to practice (Thursday) this week. There's even some chance for a rare big play, facing a struggling, injury-riddled Arizona outfit.
Tyrone Tracy (vs. WAS) — 24% started
Start Over — Rico Dowdle (at NO), Aaron Jones (at DAL), Tony Pollard (at SF)
Tracy and Devin Singletary both are startable against a barely-there Washington defense that allowed five RBs to score double-digit PPR points over the past three games. The Commanders have been bad against the run (4.7 YPC, 27th) and truly miserable against the pass (8.6 YPA, 32nd), including 7.4 yards per target (28th) on throws to running backs. New York's offense has actually been decent when QB Jaxson Dart plays, and Tracy's workloads have been strong whenever the team doesn't get blown out.
Tracy rolled off three straight games in Weeks 10-12 with at least 37 snaps and 15 touches — all in close losses — before dropping to 11 touches in Week 13 when the Patriots put a 33-15 beating on the Giants. He should now get back up around 15 touches against a much weaker opponent, even if Singletary also pushes for a double-digit touch count. Just keep in mind that both Singletary and Dart have typically been ahead of Tracy for goal-line carries this year.
- Other Good Matchups: Derrick Henry (at CIN), Saquon Barkley (vs. LV), Travis Etienne (vs. NYJ), Kenneth Walker & Zach Charbonnet (vs. IND), Devin Neal (vs. CAR), Chuba Hubbard (at NO), Chris Rodriguez / Jacory Croskey-Merritt (at NYG), Devin Singletary (vs. WAS), LeQuint Allen (vs. NYJ)
Wide Receivers 👍
Stefon Diggs (vs. BUF) — 50% started
Start Over — DK Metcalf (vs. MIA), Emeka Egbuka (vs. ATL), Deebo Samuel (at NYG), Courtland Sutton (vs. GB)
The Bills have generally been tough on wide receivers under Sean McDermott, but that hasn't been as true this season (15th in PPR points allowed) and may not really matter in Diggs' case. He's largely getting by on short-area targets (8.2 aDOT), with standout marks for target rate (24.8 percent) and yards per route (2.28). The drawback for fantasy has been a lack of playing time, including route shares below 65 percent in the last two games before New England's bye.
We know Diggs can handle more playing time, because his route shares jumped to 78% and 89% when Kayshon Boutte missed Weeks 10 and 11 with a hamstring injury. The bet here is that Diggs' playing time will spike for a different reason, facing his former team with a chance to lock up the AFC East and all but ensure a top-two seed for the playoffs. In the first Bills-Patriots matchup, Diggs had season highs for yardage (146), targets (12) and catches (10) despite running just 22 routes (67% share).
- Ricky Pearsall (vs. TEN) — 11% started
Start Over — Michael Pittman & Alec Pierce (at SEA), Xavier Worthy (vs. LAC), Romeo Doubs (at DEN)
Pearsall has been fully boom-or-bust to this point in his career, with a trio of 100-yard performances accounting for nearly half of his total yardage through 18 appearances. He has just 20 yards and nine targets in three games since returning from a knee injury, running a lot of downfield routes in an offense focused on Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings. Pearsall did play at least 74 percent of the offensive snaps in each of those contests, and the combination of a bye week followed by a favorable matchup could lead to a breakthrough this Sunday. It isn't so bad being the lower-volume downfield guy when you're facing a subpar defense with journeymen cornerbacks and an emphasis on stopping the run. Pearsall should get free for a big play or two while the Titans are focused on McCaffrey.
- Other Good Matchups: Puka Nacua & Davante Adams (vs. DET), Terry McLaurin & Deebo Samuel (at NYG), A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith (vs. LV), Wan'Dale Robinson & Darius Slayton (vs. WAS), Jaylen Waddle (at PIT), Jauan Jennings (vs. TEN)
Tight Ends 👍
Harold Fannin (at CHI) — 35% started
Start Over — Dallas Goedert (vs. LV), Juwan Johnson (vs. CAR), Brenton Strange (vs. NYJ)
The Bears haven't done a bad job of defending tight ends this year, and they probably won't let Fannin and Shedeur Sanders look as good as they did last week. On the other hand, it's a good spot for Fannin to pile up volume, playing as a 7.5-point underdog after three straight games with a snap share above 90 percent and a target share above 21 percent. Cleveland's offense entirely revolves around rookies at this point, with Fannin, Sanders, Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson dominating the touches.
- Other Good Matchups: George Kittle (vs. TEN), Mark Andrews & Isaiah Likely (at CIN), Kyle Pitts (at TB), T.J. Hockenson (at DAL)
Sit/Downgrade 👎
Quarterbacks 👎
Jacoby Brissett (at HOU) — 26% started
Start Instead — Jaxson Dart (vs. WAS), Marcus Mariota (at NYG), Trevor Lawrence (vs. NYJ)
Brissett has been remarkably consistent as a fantasy QB1, with at least 258 passing yards and 18 fantasy points in each of his eight starts, including tough matchups against the Packers, Seahawks and Rams. This week may mark the end of the line, or at least a major hiccup, with Arizona's injury woes having spread to the offensive line. LG Will Hernandez (hip) and RT Jonah Williams (shoulder) went on injured reserve in late November, and now LT Paris Johnson (knee) has been ruled out for at least Week 15.
Houston's dominant defense also has some potential injury issues, but superstars Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter and Derek Stingley are healthy. The talent gap between Arizona's offense and Houston's defense is so wide right now that the Cardinals may not hold enough possession for Brissett to reach his usual 40-plus pass attempts. Arizona's implied total is just 16.5 points, lower than every team besides the Raiders (Kenny Pickett), Jets (QB?), Colts (QB?), Browns (Shedeur Sanders) and Titans (Cam Ward). I'm apparently not the only one that expects Brissett's fantasy hot streak to end this week.
- Other Tough Matchups: Jared Goff (at LAR), Jordan Love (at DEN), Bo Nix (vs. GB), Justin Herbert (at KC), Caleb Williams (vs. CLE), Kenny Pickett (at PHI), Riley Leonard / Philip Rivers (at SEA)
Running Backs 👎
David Montgomery (at LAR) — 55% started
Start Instead — Omarion Hampton (at KC), Devin Neal (vs. CAR), Kyle Monangai (vs. CLE)
Montgomery scored touchdowns in both of Detroit's past two games, but his role/workload is otherwise at an all-time low, with 10 or fewer touches in each of the past four games. It was especially alarming to see him finish with just seven touches last week in a game where he averaged 10.4 yards per touch and the Lions won by 14 points. Detroit's offense has really consolidated around Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams since Dan Campbell took over the playcalling.
Kareem Hunt (vs. LAC) — 27% started
Start Instead — Zach Charbonnet (vs. IND), Rico Dowdle & Chuba Hubbard (at NO), Devin Singletary (vs. WAS)
Hunt saved his fantasy night with an impressive TD run on fourth down in Sunday's 20-10 loss to the Texans. Everything else went wrong, with Kansas City's offense turning in a season-worst performance while Hunt's share of the rushing workload dropped. He got 12 carries and one target, with Isiah Pacheco taking nine carries (after just five the week before) and Brashard Smith getting one. Even 60-65 percent of Kansas City's backfield work might not be enough for fantasy-starter status when the per-touch efficiency is so poor and the opposing defense is solid.
- Other Tough Matchups: Jonathan Taylor (at SEA), James Cook (at NE), Breece Hall (at JAX), Tyler Allgeier (at TB), Kimani Vidal (at KC), Bam Knight (at HOU)
Wide Receivers 👎
DJ Moore (vs. CLE) — 30% started
Start Instead — Michael Pittman (at SEA), Ricky Pearsall (vs. TEN), Chris Godwin (vs. ATL), Darius Slayton (vs. WAS)
Even if Rome Odunze (heel) is out again, Moore will have an unexciting volume projection for a game where both teams presumably want to run a lot. In fact, Odunze's absence might not even matter. Moore got just three targets with Odunze absent last week, and still hasn't seen more than seven in any game this season. The playing time hasn't faltered, but Moore has a meager 16.7 percent target rate, putting him in the same range as Cole Kmet (15.7%) rather than Odunze (23.6%), Burden (24.8%) or even Zaccheaus (22.5%).
- Other Tough Matchups: Xavier Worthy (vs. LAC), Alec Pierce & Michael Pittman (at SEA), Olamide Zaccheaus & Luther Burden (vs. CLE), Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs (at DEN), Michael Wilson (at HOU), Keenan Allen (at KC), Troy Franklin (vs. GB), Tre Tucker (at PHI)
Tight Ends 👎
Tyler Warren (at SEA) — 75% started
Start Instead — Mark Andrews (at CIN), Kyle Pitts (at TB), Harold Fannin (at CHI)
The Seahawks have allowed the second-most PPR points to tight ends this season, but with only three individual performances of more than 12.5 points. Warren is unlikely to make it four, losing his status as an every-week fantasy starter right on the cusp of the playoffs. His production was already in decline with Daniel Jones coming back down to Earth, and with Jones now out of the picture, Warren may be dealing with league-worst QB play against a top-five defense. Seattle's DvP stats just don't really matter here.
- Other Tough Matchups: Brock Bowers (at PHI), Trey McBride (at HOU), Hunter Henry (vs. BUF), Oronde Gadsden (at KC)
Streaming Picks
For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)
QB Sam Darnold (vs. IND)
QB C.J. Stroud (vs. ARZ)
RB Chris Rodriguez (at NYG) - or JCM if Rodriguez (groin) doesn't play
RB Jaylen Wright - if Achane (ribs) doesn't play
WR Darius Slayton (vs. WAS)
WR Jayden Higgins (vs. ARZ)
TE Harold Fannin (at CHI)
TE Oronde Gadsden (at KC)
K Cam Little (vs. NYJ)
K Evan McPherson (vs. BAL)
D/ST 49ers (vs. TEN)
D/ST Bears (vs. CLE)
For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)
QB Aaron Rodgers (vs. MIA)
RB Devin Singletary (vs. WAS)
RB Dylan Sampson (at CHI)
RB Brian Robinson (vs. TEN)
WR Devaughn Vele (vs. CAR)
WR Kayshon Boutte (vs. BUF)
WR Luther Burden (vs. CLE)
WR Chimere Dike (at SF)
TE AJ Barner (vs. IND)
TE Isaiah Likely (at CIN)
K Cairo Santos (vs. CLE)
K Harrison Mevis (vs. DET)
D/ST Cowboys (vs. MIN)
For Deep Leagues (Under 10 Percent Rostered)
QB Marcus Mariota (at NYG)
QB Tyler Shough (vs. CAR)
RB Michael Carter (at HOU)
RB Samaje Perine (vs. BAL)
RB Jeremy McNichols (at NYG)
RB Isaiah Davis (at JAX) - if Breece (knee) is out
WR Andrei Iosivas (vs. BAL)
WR Jalen Coker (at NO)
WR Isaac TeSlaa (at LAR) - if Raymond (ankle) is out
WR John Metchie (at JAX)
WR Mack Hollins (vs. BUF)
WR Gabe Davis (at NE)
TE Colby Parkinson (vs. DET)
TE Cole Kmet (vs. CLE)
K Ryan Fitzgerald (at NO)
D/ST Panthers (at NO)
