Stats are becoming stickier, and roles clearer, as we are now nearly one-third of the way through the NFL regular season. Weekly context is still very important, but I've become increasingly reliant on player stats and defense vs. position stats to make my selections. These two tools are also an excellent way to make selections of your own.
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Higher
Evan Engram 
at NYJ – higher than 23.5 receiving yards
Engram will remain in coach Sean Payton's rotation at tight end, so a full snap count shouldn't be projected. His role has stabilized in the last few weeks after overcoming lower-body injuries in the first few weeks of the season, with Engram running 26 and 23 routes in the last two weeks after logging only 13 and 15 in Weeks 1 and 2. The Jets are a relatively tough matchup for opposing tight ends, at least from a yards per target perspective, but they've allowed a tight end to top this projection in four of five weeks to begin the campaign.
Tyjae Spears 
at LV – higher than 26.5 rushing yards
It's not a great feeling to rely on one of the worst offenses in the league, but the Titans have alluded to increasing Spears' workload Sunday against the Raiders after he made his season debut in Week 5. Running backs coach Randy Jordan specifically mentioned Spears' ability in the two-minute role and as a pass-catching back, which makes me lean towards the rushing + receiving projection rather than just the rushing projection. That's also set at a very reasonable 17.5 yards.
Marvin Harrison 
at IND – higher than 48.5 receiving yards
Marvin Harrison receives a lot of negative attention, but he's stacked together a few positive performances in recent weeks, and his projection hasn't moved much in response. He overcame some high-profile drops in Arizona's Thursday night loss in Seattle to make a nice touchdown grab, and he then made a quick impact in the Cardinals' Week 5 loss to Tennessee. Harrison has also topped this projection in both of those contests and in three of five games overall this season.
The Colts are an average defense as measured by yards per target allowed, but they've benefited from early-season matchups against Geno Smith and Cam Ward. Overall, the matchup isn't all that concerning, even if Jacoby Brissett is forced into action.
Kendre Miller 
vs. NE – higher than 31.5 rushing yards
Miller is slowly taking over the primary rushing workload in New Orleans, with his carry total ticking up from five and seven in Weeks 2 and 3 to 11 and 10 in Weeks 4 and 5, respectively. He's done a good job with that opportunity, rushing efficiently from both a yards per attempt (5.9 and 4.1 yards per carry in the last two weeks) and as measured by advanced metrics such as yards per attempt over expectation.
The Patriots have been a tough matchup on the ground, which is a concern, but this projection remains low enough that Miller would only need to average a tick over 3.0 yards per carry based on his recent workload.
Christian McCaffrey 
at TB - higher than 48.5 receiving yards
The 49ers will remain depleted of pass catchers in Week 6, even if Jauan Jennings (ankle/rib) is able to return. Ricky Pearsall (knee) looks to be more on the doubtful side of questionable, and George Kittle (hamstring) has already been ruled out. That will leave McCaffrey as one of the key receivers Sunday, and he's delivered a minimum of 50 receiving yards in every game this season while producing more than 70 receiving yards in four of five games.
That combination of projected role and past production makes the matchup less impactful in making a selection on this projection, but the Bucs have allowed relatively big games to Bijan Robinson, Woody Marks and even Nick Chubb as pass catchers.
Lower
Breece Hall 
vs. DEN – lower than 67.5 rushing yards
There was hope and anticipation that Hall would see an increased workload with Braelon Allen (knee) sidelined. The first sample didn't reflect that, as Hall stuck right around his typical 60 percent of offensive snaps. Hall has been very efficient this season, ranking sixth in the league among running backs with 40 rush yards over expectation and 2.84 rush yards over expectation per attempt. That efficiency will be difficult to carry forward. The Broncos have allowed only two running backs (Jonathan Taylor and Omarion Hampton) to top this projection this season.
Derrick Henry 
vs. LAR – lower than 70.5 rushing yards
Lamar Jackson looks to be on the wrong side of questionable again, so the skill-position players should be downgraded across the board. Cooper Rush was inept in Week 5, with Baltimore running only 40 offensive plays with 23:27 time of possession. That was against a talented Houston defense, but the Rams are similarly stout – particularly along the defensive line. The Rams have surrendered only 3.45 yards per rush (fifth-worst in the league) and Henry has struggled due to a combination of lack of volume and some struggles with efficiency.
D'Andre Swift 
at WAS – lower than 76.5 rushing yards
Swift has performed abysmally as a rusher this season (3.3 yards per carry/-21 rush yards over expectation) and has accounted for most of his production as a pass catcher with one reception in Week 3. That's a good starting point to leaning "lower" on this projection, and the matchup against the Commanders only makes that clearer. The Commanders have only allowed one lead back to top 4.0 yards per carry and 27 receiving yards (Bijan Robinson), overall doing an excellent job limiting to production to opposing backfields.
