This is our Sunday Night Football DFS breakdown, running through all the relevant player salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel while forecasting the potential game outcomes as the Kansas City Chiefs face the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium.
Patrick Mahomes has never missed the playoffs as starter, yet at 6-6 and with a difficult remaining schedule the QB1 arguably heads into the most harrowing regular-season matchup of his career to this point as the Chiefs face the Texans at Arrowhead.
The over/under is at just 41.5 and the Chiefs are favored by 4.0.
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes ($10800 DK, $12800 FD) is a challenging call in this slate because he doesn't project very well against Houston's ferocious pass rush – while dealing with three backup offensive linemen, moreover – yet if the game is as low-scoring as expected there might not be many high-scoring players in the game generally. Also, Mahomes tends to be very difficult to beat in Arrowhead or/and playoff games, and given their 6-6 record this is more or less a playoff game for the Chiefs. He's also capable of piling up points as a runner even if the passing game goes cold.
C.J. Stroud ($9400 DK, $11400 FD) is a good player but continues to deal with a bad offensive line and weak run game, which invites all kinds of ways to end up behind the sticks. The Chiefs defense isn't quite frightening, but Arrowhead is typically difficult for visitors and this could prove to be one of the more successful games for the Chiefs defense this year.
RUNNING BACK
The running backs are also challenging calls in this game. The yardage from scrimmage projects lowly on both sides, yet the spread implies that reality might fall harder on the Texans than the Chiefs. Woody Marks ($8400 DK, $8800 FD) has seen big rushing volume lately but isn't very talented as a runner, and meanwhile the Texans haven't made much usage of Marks' actually-standout pass-catching ability. Nick Chubb ($3400 DK, $4400 FD) could come through as a punt play if it's a close and low-scoring game – Chubb is a better pure runner than Marks – but if Houston falls behind or abandons the run for whatever reason then Chubb basically disappears.
Kareem Hunt ($7400 DK, $9600 FD) can come through in fantasy even with low yardage from scrimmage, because if the Chiefs get into scoring range Hunt is clearly their preferred short-yardage runner over Isiah Pacheco ($4400 DK, $7000 FD), who only played 20 snaps last week to Hunt's 42. Brashard Smith ($2400 DK, $2600 FD) only played four snaps last week.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Despite the low over/under and the concern for both quarterbacks, there is a variety of tempting pass catchers in this game. Rashee Rice ($11000 DK, $13200 FD) and Nico Collins ($9800 DK, $12000 FD) are both alpha receivers whose target volumes dictate that they are always central considerations, even in games where their offenses don't project for high point or even yardage totals.
Rice could really use a big play or two from Xavier Worthy ($6600 DK, $8200 FD) to open up the field – the Texans love to crash downward on receivers and they'll be gunning for Rice especially – but the challenge there is getting Worthy open downfield before the Kansas City pass rush arrives. Rice is a reasonable pick for any game script, but if you're picking Worthy you might want to assume a script where the Chiefs win. The Texans lack speed at corner and if the pass rush doesn't intervene they risk the big play from Worthy. Of course, Travis Kelce ($8800 DK, $10400 FD) is the real WR2 for the Chiefs, and he also makes plenty of sense on a lineup card that supposes a Chiefs victory. If Mahomes needs to get rid of the ball quickly it's probably going to either Rice or Kelce. Such scenarios could occur in either a winning or losing script – in my opinion it would be Worthy whose production is less likely to occur in a losing script.
Then again, Hollywood Brown ($5000 DK, $5200 FD) also has the sort of speed the Texans don't want to see, so Brown might be thought of as something like a bargain version of Worthy. The constraint with Brown is that he's clearly behind Worthy in the rotation, leaving roughly 60-75 snaps per game to split between Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2000 DK, $2400 FD) and third burner Tyquan Thornton ($2800 DK, $3600 FD). Obviously, the zero-sum game between these three is rather harsh and nothing is assured for any of the three. TE2 Noah Gray ($1800 DK, $2000 FD) is a solid punt play given his playing time.
On the Texans side there is definitely room for someone to make an impact even after Collins. Jayden Higgins ($5800 DK, $7400 FD) has picked up momentum lately and has seemingly emerged as the clear WR2 for Houston, so he or/and slot wideout Christian Kirk ($3200 DK, $4800 FD) might be worth consideration especially if you're fading Collins. Tight end Dalton Schultz ($5400 DK, $5800 FD) is also a fine candidate to prove Houston's second-leading pass catcher, which makes him appear like a good value at his prices. Wideout Xavier Hutchinson ($3000 DK, $3200 FD) doesn't draw targets on a per-snap basis anywhere near Collins, Higigns, Kirk or Schultz, but in that price range he's an arguable punt play. Jaylin Noel ($1000 DK, $4000 FD) is a talented player but is unlikely to play more than 20 snaps in a given game.
KICKER
Ka'imi Fairbairn ($4800 DK, $6600 FD) is one of the very best kickers and will almost always capitalize on whatever opportunities he's given, though in this game it's difficult to tell how much opportunity he might see. The Houston offense is not good, and while the Chiefs defense isn't great it's still closer to good than bad. Then again, the Houston defense could make things hard enough on the Chiefs offense to create a short field or two, and if Houston establishes decent field position then Fairbairn has real range to work with. Fairbairn eclipsed double-digit fantasy points in six games and scoring eight or more fantasy points in nine of his 10 games.
Harrison Butker ($5200 DK, $6200 FD) has a better opportunity projection than Fairbairn but is the lesser kicker of the two. Butker is still good in his own right but lacks Fairbairn's accuracy and range, meaning Butker might need the opportunity advantage to offset the talent difference. Butker has four games this year with double-digit fantasy points.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
If the game is as low-scoring as expected/feared than either or even both defenses could prove cashing-viable in this matchup.
The Chiefs ($4000 DK, $6400 FD) are favored by the spread and certainly have earned some benefit of the doubt when playing at Arrowhead especially, so they're arguably the priority defense even though they are not as good of a defense as the Texans ($3600 DK, $6800 FD). The Houston offense is simply enough worse than the Chiefs offense for the Chiefs defense to still project as hunter rather than hunted here.
With that said, the Houston pass rush is ferocious and the Chiefs will line up three backups on the offensive line – not good. Even if the Chiefs win this game and win it by four or more points, the Houston defense could cause enormous pressure and produce more sacks/turnovers than the Chiefs typically concede.
