THURSDAY NIGHT
Las Vegas (+9.5) at Denver, o/u 42.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST
The Raiders didn't conduct a full fire sale at the trade deadline the way the Jets did, but they did respect Jakobi Meyers' wishes and ship him to a contender (or at least, to the Jaguars). At 2-6, the team has its sights set firmly on a top pick in 2026 and a potential new franchise QB, but in the meantime Geno Smith will have Brock Bowers to throw to, and not a whole lot else. Las Vegas has by far the weakest WR room in the league — that might have been debatable with Meyers around, but it's indisputable now. Tre Tucker, a 2023 third-round pick who set career highs with 47-539-3 last season, and veteran retread Tyler Lockett, who looks like an old 33, will duke it out for the right to be the nominal No. 1 wideout, while rookies Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton will fight to prove they deserve a consistent spot in the game plan, a bar neither could clear in Week 9. That left Bowers, fully healthy for the first time since the Raiders' opener, to hoover up 13 targets en route to a massive 12-127-3 performance that was nearly enough to steal a win over the Jags. Given the state of the WR corps, Pete Carroll and OC Chip Kelly could lean even more heavily on two-TE sets with Michael Mayer — Vegas is 12th in the league in running 12 personnel (27.2 percent) coming into Thursday. The defense has managed to be below average rather than truly awful, so they'll get a few chances to play spoiler down the stretch if the offense can find some consistency now that Bowers is all the way back.
Patrick Surtain will miss a second consecutive game for the Broncos this week, but they (barely) survived without him in Houston, and if they had a pick an opponent to face to be missing the best cornerback in the NFL, the Raiders would probably be it. Bo Nix has led Denver to six consecutive wins and the top of the AFC West, one game ahead of the Chargers and two ahead of KC, so it's a little surprisingly the front office didn't add any reinforcements at the deadline. Nix has produced 10 touchdowns in the last three games (eight passing, two rushing), and while his numbers are down from his rookie season and he's still prone to an occasional gunslinger's INT, he's proving to be pretty clutch — during the winning streak, the Broncos have outscored the opposition 86-20 in the fourth quarter. J.K. Dobbins is chewing up yardage between the 20s while rookie RJ Harvey provides some splash plays, and Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin have been an effective one-two punch downfield. DC Vance Joseph's defense has been the real star of the show, though. Denver's first in yards per play allowed, fourth in points per game allowed, third in QB rating against and first by a mile in sacks with 40 through nine games, with Detroit second at 28 in eight.
Key Info
LV injury report: LT Kolton Miller (IR, ankle), S Isaiah Pola-Mao (questionable, hip)
DEN injury report: WR Marvin Mims (out, concussion), LG Ben Powers (IR, bicep), CB Patrick Surtain (out, pectoral)
Slight lean: WR Tyler Lockett (DEN 28th in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Slight lean: WR Troy Franklin (LV 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: RB Ashton Jeanty (DEN third in rushing DVOA, fourth in YPC allowed, eighth in rushing yards per game allowed)
Slight fade: WR Pat Bryant (LV fifth in DVOA vs. WR3)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 LV, average score 26-21 LV, average margin of victory 10 points. The Raiders won the first eight meetings between the teams after relocating to Vegas in 2020, but the Broncos swept the season series in 2024 by a combined score of 63-37. To put that another way, Nix is 2-0 against the Raiders with a 103.5 QB rating and five total TDs (four passing, one rushing) against zero turnovers.
The Scoop: Jeanty manages 50 yards. Smith throws for less than 200 yards but finds Bowers for a touchdown. Dobbins churns out 80 yards and a TD. Nix throws for 230 yards and two scores, one each to Franklin and Sutton. Broncos 27-10
Last week's record: 8-6, 4-10 ATS, 5-9 o/u
2025 record: 87-47-1 (.649), 70-63-2 ATS (.526), 63-71-1 o/u (.470)
