In addition to our game previews below, be sure to keep an eye on our NFL injury report and the latest fantasy football news. For player usage updates and roster context, check out RotoWire's NFL depth charts, and don't miss the weekly projections to see how this week's matchups shape up.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Atlanta (+4.5) at Tampa Bay, o/u 44.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST
Officially eliminated from the playoffs and losers of seven of their last eight, the Falcons are limping to the finish line on the season, but they can still have some say on who winds up as NFC South champ. Kirk Cousins is coming off a brutal performance against the Seahawks, but he's hardly alone in that club, and in three-plus games since stepping in for Michael Penix, the 37-year-old has posted a mediocre 58.0 percent completion rate, 3:3 TD:INT and 6.4 YPA. To be fair to Cousins, he's worked without Atlanta's only true downfield threat in Drake London, and now Kyle Pitts might be operating at below 100 percent health as well. Scooping Malik Heath off waivers from the Packers probably isn't the answer. The Falcons' rejuvenated pass rush (third in the league in sacks, though that's in large part due to being second in blitz rate) is also banged up, and Raheem Morris' defense really isn't good at anything else. Even the special teams have been terrible lately. The Saints are the only opponent the Falcons have held to less than 24 points the last seven weeks, a stretch in which they've surrendered an average of 26.1 points and 371.6 yards.
The Bucs have staggered out of their bye, losing four of their last five, and suddenly the division title is up for grabs with the Panthers right there with them, and both Carolina-Tampa meetings still to come. Going down to viable Super Bowl contenders like the Rams, Patriots and Bills is excusable; falling flat last week against the Saints very much is not. Baker Mayfield's gone four consecutive games without throwing multiple TDs, posting a very shaky 54.3 percent completion rate, 4:4 TD:INT and 5.0 YPA over that stretch, and it seems clear he's not close to 100 percent healthy after spraining his non-throwing shoulder against the Rams. Maybe it was just his turn, as Mayfield's wideout corps is nearly back at full strength with Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan both on the cusp of joining Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin in what, on paper, should be the deepest and most dangerous group of pass-catchers in the league. Bucky Irving's also back, and he's collected 162 scrimmage yards and two TDs in two games since his return to the backfield. Tampa Bay's 18th in points per game and 25th in yards per play, as well as 19th in third-down efficiency and tied for 25th in red-zone efficiency, but OC Josh Grizzard's unit is more than capable of going on a tear over the final month ... if Mayfield rallies. If not, the Bucs' season probably ends after Week 18.
Key Info
ATL injury report: QB Michael Penix (IR, knee), WR Drake London (out, knee), TE Kyle Pitts (questionable, knee), RT Kaleb McGary (IR, leg), EDGE Zach Harrison (IR, knee), EDGE Jalon Walker (questionable, quadriceps), DE David Onyemata (questionable, foot), CB Billy Bowman (IR, Achilles)
TB injury report: WR Mike Evans (questionable, collarbone), WR Jalen McMillan (questionable, neck), TE Cade Otton (doubtful, knee), LG Ben Bredeson (IR, knee), RG Cody Mauch (IR, knee), EDGE Calijah Kancey (IR, pectoral), LB SirVocea Dennis (out, hip), S Tykee Smith (doubtful, neck)
Slight lean: RB Bijan Robinson (TB 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB, 32nd in passing yards allowed to RBs)
Slight lean: WR Chris Godwin (ATL 25th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: WR David Sills (TB third in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: TE Payne Durham / Devin Culp (ATL sixth in DVOA vs. TE)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 TB, average score 28-24 TB, average margin of victory nine points. The last five meetings in this rivalry have been decided by six points or fewer, and the Falcons have won their last two trips to Raymond James Stadium.
The Scoop: Robinson produces 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for less than 200 yards but does find Darnell Mooney for a TD. Irving erupts for 130 combined yards and a score. Mayfield throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Egbuka, and a Kameron Johnson kickoff return to the house proves to be the difference. Buccaneers 21-17
Last week's record: 7-7, 7-7 ATS, 9-5 o/u
2025 record: 134-73-1 (.647), 110-92-6 ATS (.545), 101-106-1 o/u (.488)
