NFL Line Movement: NFL Week 10 Odds, Over/Unders and Spreads
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
NFL season is heating up! Cash in on the best sportsbook promos available at NFL betting sites to get the most bang for your buck this season. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players up to $1,500 in bonus bets.
NFL Week 10 Odds (Opening/Current)
Week 10 NFL Lines (odds via BetMGM)
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (Broncos -6.5 O/U 43.5) / (Broncos -9.0 O/U 43.0)
Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts (Falcons -1.5 O/U 45.5) / (Colts -6.0 O/U 48.0)
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bucs -4.5 O/U 46.5) / (Bucs -2.5 O/U 48.5)
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (Panthers -4.5 O/U 43.5) / (Panthers -5.5 O/U 40.0)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (Texans -3.5 O/U 45.5) / (Texans -1.0 O/U 38.0)
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (Ravens -3.5 O/U 46.5) / (Ravens -4.0 O/U 48.0)
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (Jets -2.5 O/U 40.5) / (Browns -2.5 O/U 37.5)
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (Bears -5.5 O/U 43.5) / (Bears -3.5 O/U 47.0)
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (Bills -5.5 O/U 48.5) / (Bills -9.5 O/U 50.0)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (Seahawks -1.5 O/U 45.5) / (Seahawks -6.5 O/U 45.5)
Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders (Commanders -1.5 O/U ) / (Lions -9.0 O/U 49.5)
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (49ers -1.5 O/U) / (Rams -3.5 O/U 49.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (Chargers -4.5 O/U 43.5) / (Chargers -2.5 O/U 45.0)
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (Eagles -1.5 O/U 45.5) / (Packers -2.5 O/U 44.5)
It's never too late to get in on the action! Sign up now at the best online sportsbooks this NFL season. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code and bet $1, and then double your winnings on your next 20 bets.
NFL Week 10 Key Injury News
QB - Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, C.J. Stroud
RB - Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Cam Skattebo, Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, Omarion Hampton, Bucky Irving, Trey Benson, James Conner, Braelon Allen, Jaylen Warren, Kendre Miller, D'Andre Swift, Isiah Pacheco, Aaron Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson
WR - Malik Nabers, Ricky Pearsall, Darnell Mooney, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Darius Slayton, Jalen Coker, Cedric Tillman, Brandon Aiyuk, DJ Moore, Garrett Wilson, Joshua Palmer, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Brian Thomas, Marvin Mims, Christian Kirk, Nico Collins, Chris Godwin, Travis Hunter, Matthew Golden, A.J. Brown
TE - George Kittle, Brock Bowers, David Njoku, Brenton Strange, Darren Waller
Other notables
OL Landon Dickerson, LB Matt Milano, LB Jack Sanborn, DB Terrion Arnold, S Justin Reid, OL Ronnie Stanley, DT Ed Oliver, OL Taylor Decker, OL Rashawn Slater, OL Jake Matthews, LB Fred Warner, DE Grady Jarrett, DE Trey Hendrickson, CB Trevon Diggs, S Jaylen Reed, DE Maxx Crosby, CB Patrick Surtain, DE Marcus Davenport
NFL Week 10 Odds Observations
- The highest spreads are Bills -9.5 at Dolphins (DraftKings) and Broncos -9.5 vs Raiders
- The lowest spread is Jaguars at Texans (-1.0 at BetMGM)
- There are 5 games with a line of 1.0 and 3.0 points
- The highest total games are Dolphins/Bills and 49ers/Rams, 50.5; the lowest total games are Jaguars/Texans (38.5) and Browns/Jets (37.5)
- There are 5 road favorites in Week 10
- There is a heavy concentration of totals between 47.5-50.5 points
- The highest team totals are Bills, Lions, Colts, Rams, Bears, Ravens
- The lowest team totals are Raiders, Saints, Jets, Jaguars, Dolphins
This is the first time the Panthers have been at least 5-point favorites at home since December 2019. They are 2-7-1 last 10 at home when favored by 5 or more. (2016-2019).
NFL Week 10 Line Movement
A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most.
Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are frequent visitors on the line movement board as their power rating has improved the most of any team since the start of the season. The Falcons are a bit of an unknown quantity right now. Indy also made the biggest splash at the trade deadline getting CB Sauce Gardner from the Jets.
This game originally opened Falcons -1.5 on a neutral field (Germany), but reopened Colts -7.0 and was immediately bet down to -6.5, -6.0, and even -5.5 before going back up to -6.0. The Colts are now treading in dangerous territory, as it is hard to ignore their results, but we saw them not get to the window against the Steelers last week. The Falcons played the Pats very tough on the road and had a shot to win the game in the end, which is why there was some buyback on them.
The total opened 45.5 and reopened at 48.5, which is significant as 48 is a key number in NFL totals. It was bet down to 48.0, and I would expect it to stay there.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have also had their power rating increase significantly over the last few weeks, which makes them similar to the Colts in being residents in the line movement discussion.
This game originally opened with Seattle as -1.5 home favorites and I would have guessed it was closer to -3.0. But it reopened on 10/28 as -6.0 and immediately moved to -6.5, and crossed over to a full 7.0 points before seeing buyback on Arizona. Sharp bettors bet numbers not teams which is why you see line movement the other way when a number crosses over key numbers.
The total has moved around a little bit, opening at 45.5, dropping to 43.5 on 11/2 (Arizona quarterback situation), and back up to peak at 46.5, before returning to the opening number of 45.5.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
It is still hard to imagine the Browns favored on the road against anyone, but it just shows how low the power rating for the Jets has dropped. The Jets opened as -2.5 home favorites, which is an indication that public sentiment was low back in May. But the Jets traded away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams on Tuesday, and this number has swung to the Browns as -2.5 road favorites for a full 5-point line move.
Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders
When I look at line movement, I look at the original line from May until this week. But I also take into consideration how much it moved from reopen, usually 7 to 14 days prior. This is one of the biggest line moves I have seen within a seven-day window as the Lions are all the way up to -9.0 road favorites.
The Commanders opened as -1.5 home favorites in May, and the reopen was Lions -3.5, which is a 5-point line move, which is significant. But even with the Lions losing last week at home to the Vikings, all the money has come in on Detriot in a huge way. The Lions were around a -4.0 road favorite Sunday, but then the Jayden Daniels elbow injury caused it to jump to -7.0, -7.5, -8.0, and finally -9.0.
The total opened 49.5 and peaked at 51.5 before dropping back down to 49.5 off the Daniels news.
