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AFC and NFC Championship Weekend: Key Line Moves
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
NFL Championship Round Weekend Odds
Championship Round Weekend Schedule
Sunday January 26th
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 O/U 48.0 (Eagles -6.0 O/U 47.5)
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs -1.5 O/U 48.5 (Chiefs -2.0 O/U 47.5)
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Washington Commanders 
at Philadelphia Eagles 
The Eagles opened as -4.5 point home favorites and money came in on the Eagles pushing it to -5.0, -5.5, and now -6.0. As of Tuesday afternoon, the number is up to Eagles -6.0. This game already has some wide spread options with the Commanders as high as +6.0 and the Eagles as low as -5.5. The early speculation was that Jalen Hurts remains less than 100 percent and that is why the opening line came in low.
Bettors can tease the Eagles down to PICK or tease the Commanders up to +12.0.
The total opened 48.0 and also was immediately bet down to 47.5. 48 is a key number in Over/Unders and will most likely not move much off this number unless there is a key injury or severe weather forecast change.
The majority of the bets (57%) have come in on the Commanders, and the handle (56%) has come in on the Eagles which reflects where the "sharp" money has landed.
The total is seeing money on the Under at 78% of total bets, and 70% of the handle. The moneyline shows who has taken a position on the game, and the Commanders have received 60% of the bets and 52% of the handle.
Trends
- Washington is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games
- Washington is 4-0 SU in its last 4 games on the road
- Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- Philadelphia is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
- The Eagles are 8-1-1 and 12-7-1 in their last 10/20 home games as favorites of 1-6 points
- The Eagles last 5 home games as favorites 1-6 points are 5-0 to the UNDER
Key Injuries
Commanders -
Eagles - QB Jalen Hurts (Knee Questionable), WR A.J. Brown (Knee Questionable), CB Quinyon Mitchell (Shoulder Questionable)
Weather - 40 degrees with 4 percent chance of precipitation
Buffalo Bills 
at Kansas City Chiefs 
The Chiefs opened as -1.5 point home favorites and saw their line go down on Monday to -1.0. It went back up to -1.5 and landed on -2.0 as of Tuesday afternoon.
The total opened at 48.5 and dropped to 48.0 and now is 47.5.
The majority of the bets (64%) have come in on the Bills, and the handle (70%) has also come in on the Bills which reflects where the "sharp" money has landed.
The total is seeing money on the Under at 70% of total bets, and 55% of the handle. The moneyline shows who has taken a position on the game, and the Bills have received 65% of the bets and 49% of the handle.
Trends
- Buffalo is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
- Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- Kansas City is 22-2 SU in its last 24 games
Key Injuries
Bills - DB Taylor Rapp (Hip Questionable)
Chiefs
Weather - 31 degrees with 11 percent chance of precipitation
