Each week of the season I will look at matchups, usage, pace of play and the injury report to highlight my favorite "higher", and sometimes "lower" picks, on Chalkboard.
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Higher
QB Drake Maye at TB - higher than 241.5 passing yards; higher than 1.5 pass TDs
QB Baker Mayfield vs. NE - higher than 250.5 pass yards; higher than 1.5 pass TDs
TE Hunter Henry 
at TB - higher than 36.5 rec yards; higher than 3.5 receptions
TE Cade Otton 
vs. NE - higher than 41.5 rec yards; higher than 4.5 receptions
WR Stefon Diggs at TB - higher than 55.5 rec yards; higher than 4.5 receptions
WR DeMario Douglas at TB - higher than 36.5 rec yards
WR Tez Johnson vs. NE - higher than 45.5 rec yards; higher than 3.5 receptions
I think it's best to talk about this game as a whole because it sets up perfectly for passing game stacks. Both defenses are pass funnels; they shut down the run and face elevated passing rates as a result. And both quarterbacks are excelling, with each still in the MVP conversation.
Regarding the defense, here's a telling stat: the Patriots haven't allowed a 50-yard rusher all season. Tampa Bay is still without RB Bucky Irving, and RB Rachaad White has been ineffective in his absence. It will be up to QB Baker Mayfield and his pass-catchers if the Bucs are going to have offensive success. WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still out, which means increased opportunity elsewhere if we can read the tea leaves. TE Cade Otton has been Mayfield's security blanket over the last month with at least four catches and 40+ yards in four consecutive games. Promising seventh-round rookie WR Tez Johnson has stepped up too. He has four or more catches in three of the last four games, and at least 43 yards in each of those contests.
On the New England side, RB Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to be out again, and I'm not backing rookie RBs TreVeyon Henderson and Terrell Jennings to succeed against All-Pro run-stuffer Vita Vea and company. The Pats are also likely to be without top deep-threat WR Kayshon Boutte, which could result in a bump in target share for the likes of WR Stefon Diggs and TE Hunter Henry. Even WR DeMario Douglas, who's been good in recent weeks, could be in line for more volume.
The game script for the Patriots should see them passing at a higher than usual rate. QB Drake Maye has proven more than capable of taking advantage, having thrown for at least 259 yards in every game except blowout wins over the Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers.
The expected close game on Sunday makes this spot extra appealing, as we could be in for a shootout if things break the right way early. It's a great opportunity to stacks some picks together.
RB Rico Dowdle 
vs. NO - higher than 88.5 rushing yards; higher than 0.5 TDs
Dowdle has been sensational in three starts, with rushing yard totals of 206, 183 and 130. He's had at least 23 carries in each and if he's going to see that type of volume against the lowly New Orleans Saints, it's a smash spot. He also has a touchdown in every start so pairing those numbers together seems like the optimal route.
WR Nico Collins 
vs. JAX - higher than 59.5 rec yards
TE Dalton Schultz vs. JAX - higher than 34.5 rush yards
With QB Davis Mills in for the injured QB C.J. Stroud, the props on Collins are a bit lower than otherwise, but I'm not sure they should be.
Collins is coming off seven catches on 11 targets for 75 yards last week in a tough matchup against the Denver Broncos, with Mills playing for most of the game. Sunday's matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars is better, and I actually expect Mills to lock in on his No. 1 WR more than Stroud does. We see this with backup QBs quite often, as they aren't as comfortable and don't have as much time going through progressions. TE Dalton Schultz makes sense for similar reasons, and he's been heavily involved of late, with 17 catches for 199 yards over the last three games. The fact that the Texans really struggle running the ball should mean Mills has no option but to throw.
WR Wan'Dale Robinson 
at CHI - higher than 5.5 receptions
Robinson is Dart's No. 1 option with WR Malik Nabers sidelined. He's coming off nine catches on 11 targets after drawing 12 targets two weeks before that. The Giants threw at their highest rate of the season last week without rookie RB Cam Skattebo for the first time. There also might be some weather in Chicago which favor shorter routes/throws, Robinson's forte.
