Each week of the season I will look at matchups, usage, pace of play and the injury report to highlight my favorite "higher", and sometimes "lower" picks, on Chalkboard.
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Higher
TE Luke Musgrave 
at NYG - higher than 26.5 rec yards; higher than 2.5 rec
WR Christian Watson at NYG - higher than 38.5 rec yards; 20.5-yard longest reception
QB Jordan Love at NYG - higher than 230.5 pass yards; higher than 1.5 pass TDs
The Packers are under fire after two very disappointing weeks in a row for the offense. Matt LaFleur suddenly finds himself on the hot seat as his conservative, run-heavy approach hasn't worked. Sunday should be a bounce-back spot against a bad defense, and Love will be out to silence the critics, who are growing louder.
Musgrave played 76 percent of the snaps last week in the first game without Tucker Kraft. He's a receiving specialist who lost the starting job for blocking reasons, and 26.5 yards is too low a number for a player of his talent. All of the numbers on Green Bay seem a bit depressed based on recent results. Watson has seen his snap share increase every week and played more than any other WR against the Eagles last week. He has at least a 25-yard reception in all three of his appearances.
QB Jameis Winston 
vs. GB - higher than 225.5 pass yards
WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. GB - higher than 57.5 rec yards; higher than 5.5 rec
TE Theo Johnson vs. GB - higher than 44.5 rec yards; higher than 4.5 rec
Winston will be making his first start as a Giant. He averaged 248 passing yards in 17 starts over the last five seasons for the Saints and Browns. New York hasn't been able to establish a running game since Cam Skattebo went down, and it's unlikely they'll do so on Sunday as sizeable home underdogs.
I expect Winston to come out throwing, and the likely game script sees them playing behind. Robinson has drawn the ninth-most targets in the league. He has at least 11 in three of his last four games, and at least six catches in four of the last five. Winston should be an upgrade from Wilson and Dart from a pure passing standpoint, a good thing for all of his pass-catchers. WR Darius Slayton has missed practice all week due to a hamstring injury, and he has been ruled out. Johnson has been bright spot this season and he's coming off seven catches for 75 yards last week. TE David Njoku really benefitted whenever Winston was under center for the Browns in 2024, and Johnson enjoy the same fate.
QB Josh Allen 
vs. TB - higher than 220.5 pass yards
WR Khalil Shakir vs. TB - higher than 45.5 rec yards; higher than 5.5 rec
TE Dawson Knox vs. TB - higher than 29.5 rec yards
Allen is fresh off his first 300-yard passing game since Week 1, although the Bills were stunned in Miami last week. Sunday's matchup at home against Tampa Bay should be just as competitive, with both teams coming off a loss.
We targeted the Bucs pass-funnel defense with Patriots QB Drake Maye last week, so why not run it back with Allen? He'll be without TE Dalton Kincaid, who missed the second half of the Dolphins game with a hamstring injury. He is officially ruled out for Week 11. Knox came in and caught three of four targets for 37 yards in his absence. Shakir has at least six catches in three consecutive games.
WR Nico Collins 
at TEN - higher than 69.5 receiving yards; higher than 5.5 receptions
RB Woody Marks at TEN - higher than 78.5 rush + rec yards; higher than 13.5 rec yards
We're going right back to the well with Collins after he caught seven of 15 targets for 136 yards last week. Davis Mills gets another start, and I think we'll see him continue to target Collins at a higher rate than Stroud was. They have an ideal matchup against the lowly Titans, who are missing their best two defensive players. As for Marks, he's coming off a career-high 80 percent snap share. For a dual-threat RB with upside as a receiver, this is a prime spot.
