Week 17 is already well underway after three uninspiring games on Christmas day, but we're back with another edition of the Underdog Pick'Em article. I'll break down some of my favorite picks of the weekend, relying heavily on the data found at the links below. For those who want to make picks of their own, those two resources are a great place to start.
Individual player stats - https://www.rotowire.com/football/player-stats.php?view=receiving
Defense vs. Position stats- https://www.rotowire.com/football/defense-vs-pos.php?scoringtype=ppr
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Higher
Ashton Jeanty vs. NYG – higher than 70.5 rushing yards
Jeanty has endured a disappointing rookie season relative to the lofty standards that he entered the league with. Nevertheless, he has a good chance to build momentum entering his sophomore campaign. Jeanty beat up on a very tough matchup in Week 16 when facing the Houston Texans, and he now follows that up with a matchup against one of the softer matchups in the league. The Giants have overtaken the Cincinnati Bengals as the worst run defense in the league, allowing an incredible 5.71 yards per carry (YPC). Jeanty showed the ability to turn in explosive gains last weekend, and he should do so again in this favorable matchup.
Brenton Strange at IND – higher than 36.5 receiving yards
The Jaguars offense is a bit risky to project, because there a number of skill-position players that can carry the unit in a given week. Sauce Gardner (Achilles) could be back, making the combination of Brian Thomas and Jakobi Meyers both risky. On the other hand, the Colts have consistently been a favorable matchup for tight ends. Opposing right ends have been targeted the fifth-most, and the Colts' defense has allowed the fourth-highest yards per target to the position. Strange has had a volatile involvement in the offense, but Liam Coen has earned enough to trust to play this matchup correctly.
Chris Olave at TEN- higher than 67.5 receiving yards
Tyler Shough is making a case to remain the Saints' quarterback in 2026, and he's also shown a strong connection with Olave. Across the last six games, Olave has topped this projection on four occasions, and the positive momentum should continue in Week 17. A matchup against the Titans is about as good as it gets on a per-target basis (9.44 yards per target), and this is projected to be a close game. This has the makings of a potential shootout between two bad teams, and Olave should play a big part in that as long as he can shake off a back ailment which limited his practice Friday. He carries a questionable tag into Week 17.
Quinn Ewers vs. TB – higher than 204.5 passing yards
Ewers' first start as a pro went poorly in most respects, but it also revealed that the Dolphins' offense is still schemed soundly. He averaged 8.7 yards per attempt in a layup Week 16 matchup against the Bengals, though things won't get much more difficult in Week 17 against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt this season and have not shown any consistent sign of improvement in the last several weeks. It may not be pretty, but Ewers is likely to at least move the Miami offense down the field.
Chase Brown vs. ARI – higher than 82.5 rushing + receiving yards
This game has been circled for those who play best ball on Underdog as a favorite Week 17 target, and it has the look of being the offensive explosion that was projected all offseason. There are any number of options among the skill-position players to target in this game, but Brown is a great place to start. Arizona is among the worst run defenses in the league and has regularly given up receiving production as well. Even in a split backfield, Brown is a good target for the week.
Lower
Rico Dowdle vs. SEA – lower than 45.5 rushing yards
Dowdle's midseason magic as an RB1 and force in the Carolina offense has worn off. He's averaged 3.2 YPC or fewer in five of his last six games, and he lost some significant work to Chuba Hubbard in Carolina's Week 16 win. Those are all negatives without considering the matchup against Seattle. The Seahawks have currently allowed the fewest yards per carry to opposing running backs, most recently limiting Kyren Williams, Jonathan Taylor and Tony Pollard to inefficient performances.
John Metchie vs. NE – lower than 34.5 receiving yards
Metchie's time as the Jets' top pass catcher appears to have come and gone quickly, as his 6-65 performance on seven targets in Week 12 was easily his best performance. Since, he's combined to record 82 yards across four games and has yet to top 34 yards in any of the three games in which Brady Cook has played a significant amount. The Patriots are a better run defense than pass, but the Jets' offense isn't likely to show much.
Michael Pittman vs. JAX – lower than 49.5 receiving yards
The Philip Rivers experiment has gone better than expected, but much of the production has funneled to Alec Pierce and Josh Downs. In contrast, Pittman has 58 combined yards in Rivers' two starts, and his production had largely faded even with Daniel Jones still under center. The primary focus of the Jaguars' second-half surge has been on Trevor Lawrence, but the defense has also had a significant role in Jacksonville's success. The unit has allowed the second-fewest yards per target to opposing wide receivers. Even if Rivers has some success, it's likely to be on targets to Downs or Pierce based on the sample we've seen so far.
